Will we fry in July? 7/2/12

As far as summer weather goes, it doesn’t get any better than it did this past weekend around here. From mountaintop to seashore, sunny hot weather was the rule. Up in New Hampshire, the Portsmouth Air Show did not disappoint, as the Navy Blue Angels once again performed perhaps one the greatest forms of entertainment you’ll ever see. I hope everyone was able to get out and enjoy this summery weekend!

Despite all of the hot weather around here, it pales in comparison to what is going on out in the mid west part of the country. As I have mentioned before, we are fortunate to be living here in New England. St. Louis, Missouri, seems to be ground zero for this brutal heat wave gripping the country. Many areas in this region had actual air temperatures well into the 100’s, with oppressive amounts of humidity! Here in New England, we are on what meteorologists call, “the ring of fire.” This means we are on the northeast edge of the intense heat bubble. What this means for us, is that we are caught in between different air masses, with the heat occasionally flirting with New England from the southwest, only to be pushed back from cooler air masses from the Atlantic Ocean and Canada. In this zone, we are susceptible to severe thunderstorms from time to time. So far, this is exactly how I anticipated this summer to be around here. If this pattern continues to work out as planned, we may end up with delightful mixture of hot summery weather punctuated by pleasantly cooler temperatures.

So to answer the question, will we fry in July? I believe at times we will.  However, along with the hot weather, we will have frequent cooler periods. Overall, appears as if the month will end up a bit warmer than normal. With that being said, July is the warmest month of the year, so it may feel as if we are in the oven at times. Because we are on the ring of fire, we will have several episodes of heavy showers and thunderstorms move through our area, so don’t expect a dry month. Areas in the mid west will continue to suffer with unbearable heat and humidity.

So how did June turn out? Despite several very hot day’s towards months end, it appears as if June actually ended up slightly cooler than average! I don’t have the official statistics yet, but if it did indeed finished cooler than average, this would be the first below average month here in Boston since exactly one year ago! If you recall, the first part of June was very cool, averaging 6 degrees below average, so we did make up quite a bit of that, but maybe not enough in the end. As far as precipitation goes, it looks like we ended up close to average.

I’m a little short on time today, so I will have a new weather topic for you next week.

Now for your weekly vacation and outdoor summer activity forecast. This will turn out to be a very warm to hot summery week, so I will rate it a 8 out of 10. Expect slightly cooler weather than we had over the weekend for today and tomorrow, with highs mainly in the lower to mid 80’s under partly sunny skies. There is a low chance of an afternoon or evening thunderstorm, however many firework shows in surrounding communities will go off without a hitch.

Look for the temperatures &  humidity to be on the increase for the 4th of July. High temperatures will be in the middle 80’s. There will be more clouds around along with the chance of some showers and thunderstorms around. It will not be a washout, but I am concerned a little bit about timing for the big fireworks displays planned for many communities including the massive display in Boston. These clouds & showers are the by product of the hot weather moving back towards New England. With a little luck we should be o.k.

Watch for hotter and drier weather to return to New England from Thursday through Saturday, with highs mainly in the lower 90’s on Thursday and Friday,  to mid 90’s on Saturday. Saturday looks like it will be a very hot day. There will be some thunderstorms late Saturday to break the heat. If things work out, look for sightly cooler weather on Sunday, with highs easing back into the 80’s, with sunny skies. Looks like a nice beach day.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor this very dangerous weather pattern we have unfolding in the middle of the country. I will also have a new weather topic to discuss as well as your weekly weather forecast. In the meantime, I’m sure there are many people who would prefer to fry in July than to freeze in January! Wishing everyone a safe & happy 4th of July!!

Pete

From blistering heat, to soaking feet! 6/25/12

As I begin to write this morning in my weather office, the sky has gone from a hazy sunshine, to nearly pitch black! Yes, the heat wave is over, and now a new pattern is settling into New England this week. A fierce little storm for this time of year will send everyone running for cover, as the region gets pelted with heavy showers and perhaps some severe thunderstorms today. One thing to be sure of, this summer will not be boring weatherwise. As stated in earlier blogs, the global weather patterns are in a state of flux, and we should expect anything this summer, from torrid heat, to tropical like rainstorms, to fall like chill.

Speaking of heat waves, did anyone else think the hot weather of last week felt especially hot? I don’t think it was our imagination, as I do believe there was some truth to this. I for one, never felt my apartment get so hot from summertime heat. I actually thought I had left my oven on when I came home from work last Friday. This heat was different than heat we have in late August. This had a bite too it!

First, this heat wave was building over the middle of the country for weeks before it roared into New England. Be thankful we live here in New England! At least we get breaks from time to time. Severe heat waves generally don’t last that long. This goes the same  for severe cold spells in the winter. You move towards the middle of the country, and these weather patterns can persist for weeks at a time, and are even hotter or colder!

Second, this heat wave arrived right on the first day of summer! I believe the heat was more intense than usual because the sun’s angle was as high as it gets this time of the year. Not only are we in the midst of the longest days of the year right now, but the sun angle is at its highest this time of the year. This gave the sun 100% of the possible radiation to bake my apartment. Talking about making the most out of an opportunity! This is also why I believe that this could of been the hottest feeling temperatures for the entire summer.

So where did the heat wave go? Well, not very far away! As stated in my summer forecast, New England will be on the boundary between very hot air to our southwest, and cooler air to our north and east. Temporarily, the heat wave has been squashed to the south and west of us. Today’s storm is a by product of this boundary, sliding out of eastern Canada and setting up shop here in New England for a couple of days.

As we move later into the week, this bubble of hot weather will flirt with New England once again, making for some challenging forecasts heading into the weekend. As we move towards the 4th of July holiday (one of my favorites!), we may be in a very warm summery pattern, which would include summer afternoon thunderstorms. I will talk more about that in my forecast.

Before I get to the forecast, I would like to discuss an astronomical phenomina which does have to do with the weather. You would think in the summertime with all of the hot weather that the sun is at its closest to the earth, right? Actually, the sun is furthest away from the earth in the summer! We are at its furthest point from the sun around July 4th. At this point, we are approximately 94 million miles away from the sun, also known as aphelion. Around January 3rd, we are at our closest to the sun at 91 million miles from the sun, also known as perihelion.

So why are we usually sweating it out around July 4th when the sun is the furthest away from us, and freezing cold and bundled up when the sun is at its closest? It all has to do with the tilt of the earth’s axis! So even though we are closest to the sun in the winter, the Northern Hemisphere is tilted away from the sun, greatly reducing the amount of solar radiation we receive. In the summer, we are tilted towards the sun, greatly increasing the solar radiation. The opposite is true for the Southern Hemisphere! They are now in the winter months, while we enjoy summer. This is all part of the great balancing act  Mother Nature is perfecting each day!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity summer forecast. Despite the rough start, I will give this week a 7 out of 10. Expect a turbulant day for the rest of your Monday. Any morning sunshine will be blotted out by dark clouds, with showers and thunderstorms quickly following. Some thunderstorms may reach severe criteria, with small hail, vivid lightning  and torrential rains. I don’t expect any tornado threat today, the conditions aren’t right. It will be kind of muggy today, with highs in the lower 70’s.

There may be some more evening thunderstorms, then conditions should begin to quiet down a bit. There may be some left over drizzle and fog. It’s questionable if they will get the game in over at Fenway tonight. If they do, expect damp conditions, with lows in the 60’s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be unsettled, but I don’t expect washouts either day. There will be some sun, but also the chance of some scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. We still will have some cold air aloft which will trigger the instability showers. It will be on the cooler side, with highs mainly in the upper 60’s and low 70’s.

Watch for a warming trend to begin here in New England by Thursday as that hot boundary moves closer to us. Although remote, there still is a chance of an afternoon shower with the building heat. Look for temperatures to reach the mid 80’s. Look for similar weather for Friday, with temperatures even a little hotter, with highs nearing 90. Again, watch for an afternoon thunderstorm. Saturday will feature a continuation of the the very warm weather, with highs perhaps into the low 90’s, with the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Right now, Sunday looks like it will be a very warm day, with partly sunny skies, and highs in the mid 80’s. The Portsmouth Air Show will be held this weekend up in N.H., hopefully the weather will cooperate for this amazing show.

For the long range special, at this point, it appears as if New England will be in a very summery pattern for the start of July. It looks like the 4th of July may feature very warm temperatures perhaps near 90? Along with the heat, there may also be some showers and thunderstorms that we may have to dodge here and there. It does not appear to be a wash out at this time. As always, I will update this forecast next Monday…so stay tuned!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, Iwill have the review for the month of June. I will let you know if we finished the month with above normal temperatures, to keep the streak alive, it’s going to be close! I will also preview the weather for the month of July. In addition, I will have the all important 4th of July forecast! In the meantime, we’ve experienced cold feet, blistering heat, and now soaking wet feet…I think it’s time for the weather to be sweet!

Pete (I didn’t mean for my name to rhyme too!)

From frozen feet to blistering heat! 6/18/25

Good morning! I hope everyone got a chance to spend some time with their families on Father’s Day! It was a beautiful day, with 100% of the possible sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures. Too bad the same couldn’t of been said for Saturday! That pesky seabreeze that was talked about in last week’s blog strengthened on Saturday behind a departing storm and a strong area of high pressure area to our north, resulting in downright cold temperatures and a heavy overcast for much of the day. Even yesterday, despite all of the sunshine, temperatures struggled through the 60’s along the coast.

So are these freezing temperatures our fate for this summer? Not quite. In fact, as stated in last week’s blog, summer heat is building, and will finally make an appearance here in New England, appropriately enough, on the first day of summer starting on Wednesday. With that being said, don’t expect the heat of this week to be the rule this summer. As stated in the summer forecast, this summer will feature highly variable weather, with no one pattern locking in for any length of time. In fact, just as quickly as the heat moves in this week, we may be back in the chill to finish up the month of June. This is important, as this could be the first month that may end up with below normal temperatures in Boston in exactly one year. So far, we are averaging close to 4 degrees below normal this month in Boston. We will have to see how hot it gets this week, and then how cool it gets to finish up the month to see if it averages below normal. My feeling is that we may have had too many cool days this month to be able to finish above average.

This week will end up being a summer lovers delight. Not only do we have summertime heat arriving on the first day of summer, but it will also coincide with the longest day of the year, which is Wednesday. If you can get the day off, it would be a nice day to spend at the beach, to get some relief from the heat, but also to enjoy the close to 16 hours of daylight. After that, the days will begin to shorten. At first only by seconds, reaching a full minute shorter by June 28th. With the heat and humidity building this week, and the long days, watch for some beautiful sunsets this week on Wednesday evening, then again on Thursday.

Before I get to the forecast, I would like to cover a weather topic of the week. With the coming heat this week, you  may have heard meteorologists talk about the dewpoint. People ask me all the time, Pete, what is the dewpoint? People throw around the term humidity in the summer all the time, saying, “it’s not the heat, it’s the humidity.”  Actually, it’s the dewpoint temperature that measures how uncomfortable we feel during the summertime. The dew point measures the amount of humidity in the air. The higher the dew point temperature, the more uncomfortable we feel. When dew point temperatures rise to above 70 degrees, we are in the oppressive zone, making the air feel sticky and heavy. This week, expect higher dew point  temperatures to invade New England on Wednesday through Friday, making us feel sluggish.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10 overall. After last weeks chilly temperatures, we will be scrambling for air conditioners and the local beaches starting on Wednesday this week. Expect the cooler marine weather to continue along the coast for the rest of today. Watch for some low clouds this morning giving way to mostly sunny skies for this afternoon. It will be cool, but perhaps not quite as cool as yesterday, with highs near 65 along the coast, to 75 10 miles or so inland. The low clouds will invade the coast again overnight, with lows in the 50’s. Look for temperatures to be a little warmer for Tuesday some low clouds and fog in the morning giving way to some sunshine during ther afternoon. Highs will be in the low 70’s along the coast, to low 80’s inland.

Wednesday may start off with some low clouds and fog, but watch for this to quickly burn off, resulting in a much hotter afternoon, with highs nearing 94 degrees! Thursday could turn out to be the hottest day of the summer, under blistering sun, look for temperatures to be a record smashing 98 degrees! With that type of heat, there’s always a chance of a scattered late afternoon or evening thunderstorm.

If it reaches 90 degrees on Friday, it will be classified as an official heatwave. Temperatures need to be 90 degrees or higher for three consecutive days to be classified as an official heat wave here in Boston. Expect it to be another hot day on Friday, along with higher amounts of humidity, temperatures will make another run at 90.  There is also an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms to break the heat.

Right now, expect cooler weather on Saturday with highs back in the 80’s along with mostly sunny skies and lower humidity. At this point, there may be another cold front approaching on Sunday, along with the chance of some showers and thunderstorms. That could change this far out!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your outlook for the rest of the month of June. I may even give a sneak peek into what the 4th of July holiday week looks like weatherwise around here. I will also have another weather topic to talk about. In the meantime, your feet may be frozen this week, but it’s more likely because they will be in the water at the beach, to beat the blistering heat!

Pete

Fine summer weather…6/11/12

The beautiful weather of this past weekend certainly had people quickly forgetting just how soggy it was last week. With light winds, very warm temperatures, and low humidity, it was almost as good as it gets around here weatherwise. Much like how May began, June certainly started with a chill in the air, as the first 7 days of the month were averaging close to 6 degrees below normal. Yes, the last three days has featured above normal temperatures, but not enough to wipe out the cold that started the month. So the first third of June is in the books, and on average, it has been cooler than normal month so far. As long as the weekends turn out like this past one did, I don’t think people care if we had snow flurries during the weekdays.

As mentioned earlier, this sounds like a familiar pattern. May started out similar, with cold, rainy weather. Then we had some impressive bursts of heat during the middle and latter part of the month to help the month end up being the 11th straight warmer than normal month in a row. When was the last cooler than normal month here in Boston? Actually it was exactly one year ago that last June finished just a degree below normal…so not by much! In fact if you extrapolate it out a little further, it actually has been the past 14 out of the last 15 months have been warmer than normal! It has been a very unusual stretch of warm weather here in New England.

So is the streak going to continue? It’s difficult to say. Certainly the departures have come way down after the inflated values over the winter. My concern is that the blocking that was missing all through the winter has been showing up in Greenland as of late. When these patterns develop, they bring cold and stormy weather to New England during the winter, and can retard heat waves from blasting into New England during the summer. This is why I forecasted a summer with near normal temperatures this year. We already had, and will continue to get plenty of nice summery weather in the coming months. I just don’t see a very hot & dry summer in the cards for New England this year. With all that being said, the summer solstice is still 10 days away, and it is then that the true summer time patterns often show up…so we shall see.

If you follow the computer models at face value, you would of said that New England was going to burn up with heat this June. Much like during the winter months, when computer models kept advertising that bitter cold weather was on the way, well, you know how that all worked out! Computer models are an essential tool in forecasting the weather, but like in many things in life, you can’t put all of your eggs in one basket, as they say.  Computer models may just be over enthusiastic in bringing the hot air to New England, and when we reach the summer solstice it will finally make it in. Or, they are just not picking up the blocking pattern well in the North Atlantic, and this cat and mouse game will continue for the whole summer. Much like May, I believe we do get enough bursts of heat later in the month to push us over the top once again…but it’s going to be close!

In the weather topic of the week, I will be talking about a phenomina that occurs quite frequently here in New England. Today I am talking about the seabreeze. We hear meteorologists talk about them nearly everyday on television, but what exactly are they? There are a couple different types of seabreezes. First, is the type that many of us are familiar with on a hot afternoon at the beach. This type of breeze occurs nearly on a daily basis if you go or live on the ocean during the summer. What happens in this case, is the land heats up faster than  the water, warm air parcels rise, when the warm air rises, the cooler air from the water rushes towards the land to fill the void left over from the rising warm air. This rush of cooler air is called a seabreeze, and is welcomed during a hot summer day at the beach.

The other type of a seabreeze is caused by strong winds blowing in from the ocean associated with low pressure areas (storms) or even high pressure areas (fair weather). These winds can originate over the ocean or large bodies of water, and can reach well into interior portions of New England sometimes. These winds can cause, cool, damp weather in the spring and summer, or cold, snowy weather during the winter months. Being right next to the Atlantic Ocean, our heat waves are tempered in the summer, and cold waves not as severe in the winter.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity summer forecast. I will give this week a 7 out of 10, weighted heavily once again at the prospects of more fine weather on the way for next weekend. Look for a mixture of sun and clouds for the rest of today, with comfortable levels of humidity. Temperatures will be pleasant, with highs near 70 at the coast with a seabreeze, but near 80 about 10 miles inland. Tonight will be fair, with lows in the 50’s. Watch for a sunny start for tuesday, but clouds will be increasing during the afternoon, temperatures will be similar to today. We may make it through the evening without any rain, but anytime after 10 p.m. look for fog and rain showers to move in. Expect more humid conditions for your Wednesday, with heavy showers during the morning, and some leftover drizzle and foggy weather during the afternoon. It will be more humid, with highs around 70. Evening outdoor activities may be a tough call on Wednesday, with leftover drizzle and some light showers. Thursday will start off with low clouds, fog and drizzle. During the afternoon, there maybe some brightening of the overcast, with highs mainly in the 60’s and low 70’s. At this point, Friday through Sunday look to feature sunny,drier, and warmer weather, with highs in the lower 80’s inland, but deduct about 10 degrees along the coast with daily seabreezes.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your forecast for the official first day of summer! I will also continue to follow the patterns for the rest of June to see if any heat waves may be on the way. In the meantime, if you loved the weather of this past weekend on a daily basis, my suggestion to you would be to move out to San Diego, California. Otherwise, you can live here, and enjoy all the weather changes that makes living here in New England special…that includes fine summer weather! ~Happy Birthday to my sister today!~&~ Happy Father’s Day next Sunday!~

Pete

June nor’easter! 6/4/12

Technically, it’s not officially summer just yet. Astronomical summer does not arrive until June 2oth. This day also marks the longest days of the year. However, meteoroligic summer consists of the three months of June, July and August, and this began last Friday on June 1st. Don’t tell this to Mother Nature though, as she is delivering a several day nor’easter type storm that would of made big headlines during the winter.

The NAO, also known as The Greenland Block that I frequently talk about during the winter months, has finally broken through, and has gone into the negative state in a big way. Go figure, meteorologists has been watching and waiting for this to happen all winter long, and now it has finally happened…here in June!

The nor’easter, which began Saturday, has packed a wallop in many areas, and the worst may be yet to come for people who live along the east facing shoreline. First came the rain, and alot of it on Saturday. Many areas received between 2 and 3 inches, with areas up in New Hampshire and especially Maine getting the most. Portland’s airport, recorded it’s 4th rainiest June day on record, with over 6 inches falling!

As a result of the block in place over Greenland, this storm could not move away from New England as they normally do. Instead, it stalled out over the maritimes, and is now retrograding back down the coast and making an encore appearance across eastern Massachusetts today and tomorrow. In fact, the storm will combine with another storm south of New England later today and tonight to possibly bring a significant coastal flooding threat for people who live along the beaches.

A good friend of mine who lives on Nantasket beach, and is also a very reliable weather spotter for me, messaged me last night to let me know that the Atlantic was whipped up into a frenzy, with high waves and some minor flooding at the time. The memories of the moderate to major coastal flooding event with the post Christmas Day Blizzard back in 2010 were still fresh in his head. During that storm, the storm surge came over the 10 ft wall on Nantasket beach, surrounding the building with ocean water and flooded the parking lot, creating a very tense situation.

I didn’t want to alarm him, however, I do believe that this could turn into another serious situation with tonights high tide at midnight. Why? Well first off, tonight happens to be a full moon. This in itself would cause higher than normal astronomical high tides. In fact, it’s called the astronomical spring high tides tonight. That in conjuction with a strong northesterly fetch coming straight off of the Atlantic Ocean, is not going to let the tide fully go out. When the tide comes in tonight, I believe there is a risk for pockets of moderate coastal flooding due to the storm surge along typical areas that are prone to these events along the shore. So whatever you saw last night, you can expect tonights high tide to possibly be twice as worse. A very unusual event for June.

I know what folks are thinking out there. Is this nor’easter the start of a sopping wet cold summer? Well, it’s certainly not the best sign. However, remember the summer forecast said it was going to be highly variable. I do believe that global patterns are shifting, and that there will be more volatile weather coming up for the rest of the year. This includes times of cold weather, as well as periods of hot summery weather. In fact, looking past this week, hotter weather looks like it will invade New England once again…so hang in there!

Now for this week’s weather topic. This week I am talking about hurricanes. Hurricane season began last Friday, and continues all the way up until November 30th. Hurricanes are fierce storms, that typically affect sothern latitudes, Florida, Gulf coast region, and especially the Caribbean. With that being said, it was just last year when Hurricane Irene pushed up the Atlantic seabord, causing damage from the Carolina’s straight up through Vermont.

Hurricanes need warm water, usually over tropical regions, in water of 80 degrees or higher, to develop and intensify. Once hurricanes move over land, they begin to weaken. Towering thunderstorms over weak upper air currents is how hurricanes are born. At that point, westerly steering currents move these storms in a west to east fashion in the southern Atlantic, until they either hit land, or recurve out into the north Atlantic.

Hurricanes are rated on a scale from 1 to 5 called the Saffir-Simpson Scale. To be named a hurricane, the storm must reach sustained winds of 74 m.p.h. at that point, it is rated a category 1. If a storm reaches strength of 150 m.ph. or greater, it is classified as a category 5 storm. No matter what the category, hurricanes are destructive storms, causing billions of dollars in damages, either by wind, flooding, storm surges, or a deadly combination of all three.

This year, NOAA is calling for a average hurricane season. They are expecting between 9 and 15 named storms, 5 to 7 of these to become hurricanes, and 3 of these to turn into major hurricanes, which is any storm with 120 m.ph. winds or greater. With El Nino coming on this summer, I would agree with NOAA’s conservative approach. El Nino’s typically increases wind sheer in the upper atmosphere, not allowing hurricanes to develop. Remember, it only takes one hurricane to hit the mainland to cause billions of dollars in damage and great hardship with life.

Now for your weekly outdoor summer forecast. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10, salvaged only by the anticipation of better weather later in the week, otherwise it may of been rated a 1. There is a coastal flood warning issued from the National Weather Service for east coastal Massachusetts tonight! Expect a washout for the rest of your Monday, with the nor’easter intensifying, look for a widswept rain, and gusty winds from the northeast this afternoon. It will also be cold, with highs barely in the lower 50’s around Boston, and maybe only the upper 40’s in the Worcester hills! Rain and wind will continue tonight along with chilly temperatures, lows will be in the upper 40’s…brrrr!

If you live along the coast, be prepared for ocean water flooding beach roadways, high waves, and everything else you would expect in a moderate coastal flood event, such as rocks, seaweed, and sand being washed up onto the roads. There may be some small improvement on Tuesday, however it still will be very cool, and there still will be some showers, drizzle and fog from time to time. Highs will be near 60. For Wednesday, we may see some breaks in the clouds. If we do see any sun, it may fuel the atmosphere for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This holds true for your Thursday as well, maybe with a little more sun, and it may be a little warmer, with temps. close to 70.

Friday may see further improvement, with more sun, however there will still be a chance of an afternonn thunderstorm. It will be noticeably warmer with highs in the 70’s. Right now, the weekend may start out a little shaky, with some clouds, but it should turn sunny, with warmer temperatures. This trend should hold true for Sunday as well, with sunny weather, and highs warming into the lower 80’s. Looking out a bit further, even warmer to hot weather may return later on next week, so summer is on its way!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know if the warmer weather forecasted for later next week will be fact or fiction. I will also have a new weather topic to talk about. In the meantime, much like last year at this time, get your lawn mowers ready, the beach attire handy, because once the June nor’easter blows by, this summer will be a dandy!

Pete

Typical summer weather…5/28/12

Happy Memorial Day to everyone! I am very pleased that the original forecast from last week worked out very well! I have to admit, I came very close to updating the blog last Friday to warn everyone of impending inclement weather that may ruin the holiday weekend. I guess it’s true when they say to listen to your initial gut instinct!

Personally, I’m having a very pleasant weekend visiting good friends of mine up in Maine. So far the weather could not of been more beautiful to go out to the beach, have a coookout, and just relax with friends. I hope everyone else got a chance to get out and enjoy the nice weather this weekend!

While it has been nice here in New England, the same can’t be said for the rest of the country. Extreme weather, which seemed to take a bit of a break the past few months, seems to be starting up again. Taking a look across the country this weekend you would find everything from a raging snowstorm in the northern Rockies, to a blistering heat wave not too far away from New England, to a our second tropical storm of the season hitting Florida! Here in New England, we just seemed to fall in the “perfect weather zone,” which was just fine for us!

So is this a sign for extreme weather for June? Maybe. June 1st marks the start of meteorological summer, so typically we can expect an increase in heat and humidity. For this June, I am expecting a continuation of what we have had. This means we are in for the eleventh straight month of above normal temperatures here in Boston. Expect periods of hot and humid weather this month. It will also be a wetter than normal month, with above average rainfall.

Last week I published the summer 2012 forecast. I don’t have many changes right now. In fact, looking at the overall pattern, I may say that it may turn out a bit hotter and a bit wetter than what I have forecasted. That bubble of heat over the Ohio Valley looks mighty impressive for so early in the season. I can only imagine when meteorological summer arrives on June 20th that this heat may make an even greater presence here in New England…something to keep a very close eye on.

Now time for our weekly weather topic. With the possibility of some summertime thunderstorms this week, I would like to talk about what happens sometimes in severe thunderstorms. One aspect of a severe thunderstorm are the winds associated with them. Sometimes, severe winds called downdrafts can cause significant damage similar to small tornadoes. Dowdrafts are frequently found in squall lines.

When severe weather threatens, meteorologists follow radar echoes very carefully. Radar has become such a powerful tool, that they can pick up tornadoes on it, as well as looking out for “bow echoes.” Bow echoes is when a squall line approaches it shows as an arc, or bow on the radar. It is at the crown of the bow where downdraft winds push out from the severe thunderstorm, and flatten everything in it’s path. Sometimes, downdraft winds can do similar damage to a tornado. Hopefully, you won’t be in the path of any bow echoes anytime soon!

Now for your weekly outdoor summer activity forecast. I will rate this week another 7 out of 10! There will be some inclement weather, but it will be on the summery side as well, typical summer weather. Look for mostly sunny weather for the rest of your Memorial Day. There may some clouds late, and a slight chance of a evening thunderstorm, this should not ruin any evening cookouts inside of Rt 128. temperatures will be highly variable, with cool winds coming in off of the ocean at east facing beaches, it will be pleasantly cool there, with highs near 70. Further inland, outside of 495, temperatures will warm to the 80’s, with a greater chance of a thunderstorm. Later tonight, we all may experience some showers and thunderstorms, it will also turn more muggy.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, look for very warm and muggy conditions with lots of clouds, along with some hazy sunshine. Expect some afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day, some which could be severe in some locations. Temperatures will be in the 80’s both days.

Watch for somewhat cooler and dryer weather to move into New England for Thursday and Friday, with highs in the 70’s. There will be more rain moving through the area sometime on Saturday and Saturday night, with highs near 80.

Right now, I’m forecasting this system to move out early Sunday, leaving us with a nice afternoon. This could change, so keep abreast to future forecasts for this weekend.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will review what May was like, as well as continue to monitor our summer patterns. I will also have a new weather topic. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your holiday weekend, whatever it may be, and be prepared for typical summertime weather for this week! ***Remember those who fought for us, and those who were special to us***

Pete

Summer 2012…5/21/12

Could the weather get much better than it was this past weekend? Starting from last Thursday straight through to Sunday, it was perfect 10’s across the board. We are in a very pleasant pattern, with some rain during the weekday’s, and warm sunny weather on the weekend’s, there’s not too much to complain about these day’s in the weather department. The drought is being widdled away, the beach season has started early, and we’re on our way to the 10th straight month of above normal temperatures here in Boston.

There’s alot to look forward to this time of year. Memorial Day is one week from today, and marks the unofficial start of summer. There are some who believe (including myself) that summer started way back in March this year. Look at all of the people who have been wearing flip flops since March! Remember the week of weather with temperatures in the mid to high 80’s? Yes, it’s been warm, so the big question of the day is if this unprecedented warm pattern going to continue into summer 2012?

In some ways, forecasting a New England summer can be trickier that forecasting the winter. Winter patterns give more clear cut clues as to what the pattern might be like. In summer, jet streams retreat to the north, leaving weak steering currents and vague clarifications of weather patterns. Occasionally, a persistant pattern will lock in for several months at a time, like the Texas drought and heat wave last summer, causing great hardship on agricultural, human and energy consumption.

So how do I come up with a summer forecast? Like the winter forecast, I combine many elements such as current and past temperature trends in the pattern, soil moisture from precipitation, ocean temperatures, strength of the Bermuda high pressure area off the coast, long range super computer models, as well as expert long range forecast discussions from NOAA, Accuweather, and WeatherBell Analytics to name a few. Like the winter, I do like to remind everybody, that with all of the advancements we have made in the field of meteorology and the study of earth sciences, this is still more like a hypothesis, or in other words, an educated guess. 

So how do the patterns look for summer 2012 this year? So far, there is no conclusive evidence of a hot & dry summer coming to New England this year. On the flip side, it doesn’t look wet & cold either. The place that looks hot & dry this summer is the inter mountain west and the northen Plains. Places like Colorado, Wyoming, the Dakota’s, look to sizzle in summer heat this summer. Every summer, there is a  large bubble of hot & dry weather. Last summer it was centered around Texas. This year, this bubble looks like it wants to set up further west.

You might say what does this have anything to do with us here in New England. Well, it does. Where this bubble of heat is, so goes the super hot summer weather (who needs that anyway?). It appears as if New England will be stuck in a battle zone of very warm air to our south and west, and cooler air to our north and east. In other words, I’m expecting a summer that will feature alot of variable weather. This includes plenty of summery, warm weather, puncuated by times of cooler weather. I am not expecting many heat waves this summer. It has to reach 90 degrees three days in a row to be classified as an official heat wave. Overall, I believe Boston will reach 90 degrees 8 to 14  times this summer. This is about average for any given summer. Keep in mind, just because the temperatures may not be always in the 90’s, in most cases it’s the dew point, or measure of humidity in the air, that makes us feel uncomfortable. There will be plenty of muggy weather this summer, especially as we move toward August.

Some computer models have been forecasting a much cooler and wetter summer for New England this year. I’m going to stick with the trends and split the difference. The trend has been for warmer than normal weather for the past 10 months. I believe this trend will continue for another few months. So with that being said, I do believe summer 2012 will average a little warmer than normal overall, but not as hot as you  thought it could of been considering how warm the winter and spring were.

As far as precipitation goes, I do believe we will end up with near average rainfall. Since May 1st, we have been in a much more active weather pattern, with frequent bouts with precipitation. Most of this rainfall will fall in the form of heavy showers and thunderstorms, as is frequently the case this time of the year. As we move deeper into the summer, we may benefit from moisture from tropical systems coming up from the south. One thing to keep in mind, I am expecting an abrupt end to summer in September, this will usher in a new weather pattern, a pattern which will lead to a much different winter than the one we just had!

Now for your weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. Next week it will be the weekly summer forecast! I will rate this week another 7 out of 10. Expect mostly cloudy weather for the rest of your Monday, along with some brightening of the overcast at times. There will also be an increasing chance of some drizzle and light rain showers later on in the day. It will be cooler, with an east wind off of the ocean, with highs mostly in the 60’s. Look for heavier showers to move into the area later tonight. If you have outdoor plans, I say the earlier the better if you want to get them in without any rain. Tuesday may feature some early showers, then skies may try to break for some afternoon sun. It will turn warmer and more humid, with highs in the 70’s. Expect similar weather for Wednesday, along with the chance of an afternoon and evening thunderstorm each day, which may foul up some evening outdoor plans. This is not a guarantee, just keep it in mind. Thursday may clear out and become mostly sunny and warmer, with highs in the lower 80’s. Expect similar weather on Friday, along with muggy conditions. So far, the Memorial holiday weekend looks O.K. at this point. Saturday may be very warm with the chance of some afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. If everything works out, look for sunny, but cooler weather for Sunday and Monday, with highs in the upper 60’s at the beaches, and mid 70’s inland. If things change, I may update the forecast on Friday. Confidence is 70% at this point for the weekend forecast.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will review the weather for May, as well as look to the future for our first month of summer, June! I will also have a new weather topic of the week. I also may tweek the summer forecast slightly, based on some new information coming in this week. I reserve the right to do this, I believe, up until the end of May! Hopefully, it works out as planned, or is even a better summer than what I believe! In the meantime, get the barbecues, summer attire and the beach homes ready, because summer 2012 is just about here! ~Have a happy and safe Memorial Day weekend!~

Pete

Nice weather ahead…5/14/12

I hope everyone had a nice Mother’s Day weekend!  The weather certainly cooperated with all outdoor activities and family get togethers. I think everyone would agree, that they would take rain sometime during the week, only to have beautiful weather during the weekends. Such is the weather pattern that we are in now. Sometimes, these patterns lock in for months at a time. I recall a few years ago, the weekdays had nice weather, only to have cloudy,  rainy weather foul up every weekend. Yes, it’s going to rain again this week, however this should pave the way for another beautiful stretch of May weather going into next weekend! I will talk more about this in my forecast shortly.

Yesterday, my niece asked me what I thought the weather was going to be like for the upcoming summer. I told her that this was a very good question, and to tune in next week for my summer forecast to find out! Actually, since she is family, she got a sneak preview at what my thoughts were. Being a tough critic, she seemed pleased with my answer. With that being said, I must admit the outlook so far looks as if it could go either way. With global patterns rapidly changing, at this point, there is no clear cut forecast for either hot and dry, or cool and wet, or a combination of the two. I may have to pull out one of my secret forecast formulas to figure this one out!

The summer forecast is a long term forecast, what about for the rest of May? After a chilly first two weeks, it appears as if the last two weeks of May will feature some warmer than normal weather around here. There will be some more bouts with rainfall, but nothing that will stick around for too long, or be too heavy. With that being said, we are making progress in diminishing the severe drought conditions we were in coming off of the winter that wasn’t. It’s important that we continue to get some rain now and again before summer starts.

It is interesting to note, that despite the chilly first half of May, it appears as if the warmer weather we had, and that is coming, may be enough to tip the scales to yet another warmer than normal month in Boston. If you are keeping track (if not, no worries, I am!), this will be an unpresedented 11th straight month in a row of above normal temperatures here in Boston.
With that being said, the departure from normal will not be as great as the previous 6 months. In fact, it may just end up being a little above normal, say within 2 degrees. The six previous months have average a whopping 6 degrees above normal each month! Is this “cooling” trend going to contnue in the coming months? We shall see.

Now for the weather topic of the week. Have you ever wondered what it would be like to be floating inside of the clouds you see up in the sky? When we have fog, this is what it’s like! Fog is a actually a cloud that is in contact with us here in earth. There are many different types of fog that form. One way fog develops is when the dew point  matches the air temperature. At this point the air becomes 100% saturated, and a cloud forms, or fog. This type of fog is often called radiation fog. Another type of fog is called advection fog. This fog is often found during the summer months down the Cape and along the coast of Maine. This develops when warm humid air is transported over cooler ocean temperatures to produce thick fog. The greater the difference in temperature, the thicker the fog can be. This can also develop in the winter when mild air gets transported over a snow cover. This fog is also known as “snow eater fog”, as this type of fog has been known to “evaporate snow” in some cases in a number of hours!

Still another type of fog occurs in the fall and winter months. This fog is called steam and arctic sea smoke respectively. Steam fog happens when cool air sttles over a warm body of water, like a lake or pond. Arctic sea smoke is when frigid arctic air settles over the warmer ocean, the difference in the temperature of the air and body of water produces these types of fog.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, weighted heavily on the beautiful weather on the way from Thursday through Sunday. Expect mostly cloudy weather, along with some beams of sunshine for the rest of your Monday. If you live to the north and west of Boston, you may encounter some showers later today. From the city, south and east, there is only a small chance of a shower. No washouts in this area however. There may be some showers even in the Boston area later on tonight, then expect just cloudy weather, along with some areas of fog. Tuesday may start out with some sunny breaks, but watch for clouds to thicken during the day along with rain moving into the area later on in the day. Look for cancellations and delays Tuesday night, as rain moves into the area and falls heavily at times into Wednesday morning. It will be damp with lows in the 50’s. There will be some leftover rain Wednesday morning, then expect skies to partially clear during the afternoon. There may be a pop up shower or thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. This cold front will act as a broom, and sweep the inclement weather off the coast. Watch for mostly sunny, dry weather from Thursday right through next weekend! Temperatures will be mild during the day, with highs in the low 70’s, but cool later on at night, with lows dipping back into the 40’s.

Well that’s about it for now! Next week’s blog will feature the much anticipated summer forecast! I will also have a new weather topic of the week to talk about. In the meantime, enjoy the nice weather coming up for later on in the week into next weekend. Could this be a preview for the upcoming summer? Tune in next week to find out! **Thank you for reading**

Pete

More rain on the way…5/7/12

Good morning everyone! It was a nice change waking up this morning to brilliant sunshine and warmer temperatures! I think it was just what the doctor ordered, as they say. I knew last week was going to be inclement, but boy, what a lousy week it turned out to be! We havn’t had something like that for a long time. It was as if Mother Nature flipped the switch on the pattern right on the first day of May.

 This is what happens so may times here in New England during the spring. Just when you think the worst of the weather is behind us, a week like last week happens. I remember rating it a 5 out of 10, but in hindsight, it should of been a 2 out of 10. In addition to the chill, we had several bouts of heavy rain and drizzle, not to mention the endless day’s of fog. Along with my sister-in-law, I experienced this cold weather first hand watching my nephew play baseball, then my niece playing softball yesterday morning at Billings field…brrrrr!

It was this fog, which ruined the Boston area viewing of the “super moon” on Saturday night. As the clouds broke during late Saturday afternoon, I thought to myself that this was a nice treat after such a lousy week of weather to be able to see the super moon rising in the east. As it turned out, winds shifted to the east at the last second, and a fog bank rolled in from the ocean, ruining the view! With a little patience, the sky last evening was much better, and though it was slightly past full, the view was amazing!

So just what was all of this talk about a “super moon” about? Each year, the moon makes its closest pass to the earth, this is called perigee. This year, for astronomical reasons, we were closer to the moon than usual. So much so, the moon appeared 30% brighter, and was 14% closer than at typical times during the year. If you got the chance to see this with clear skies the past couple of nights, you know just how much bigger and brighter the moon was! It was as close as many of us will ever get to the moon, without being on it!

Now getting back to the matter at hand…our new weather pattern! For some, this new pattern is welcomed. After month after month of warm and dry weather, we have now entered a cooler, wetter pattern for the foreseeable future. This does not mean to start building the arks, and to throw the towel in and give up on the summer. The true summer pattern is still a good month away from truly settling in, so we shall see. What it does mean, however, is to expect more rain than we have been used to, along with cooler temperatures for probably the rest of the month, with this week being no exception. I suspect by the end of June, talk of drought around here will be a thing of the past.

Rather than a weather topic, I would like to substitute this with weather history this week. I know I have talked about this storm in the past, but I believe it’s worth mentioning each year. I am talking about the great Mother’s Day snowstorm here in New England back on May 9th and 10th, 1977. Yes, I said snowstorm! At Boston’s Logan Airport it wasn’t much of anything, just about a half inch of snow. However, once you increased your distance from the ocean, and not by much, heavy accumulations of wet snow  ranged from about 4″ in Newton, Ma. upwards to 12″ in the Worcester area, and even up to 2 ft in the hilly terrain of much of New England! With the foliage fully out at this point of the year, severe tree damage occurred, along with significant power outages left may areas in the dark. It was probably similar to the Halloween nor’easter of last year in terms of snowfall and damages. No worries, no snowstorms this week!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will rate this week another 5 out of 10, lowered  because of the anticipation of rain for the midweek, but elevated for the prospects of warmer weather and sunshine for Mother’s Day! (I just gave some of the forecast away!) Enjoy mostly sunny weather for the majority of your Monday, however, watch for cloudiness at the end of the day blotting out the sunset. It will a warmer day than recent, due to the sun. Expect highs mainly in the 60’s, except upper 50’s near the water. Clouds will thicken overnight, no rain is expected however, with lows mainly in the 40’s and low 50’s. Expect a cloudy day tomorrow, and cooler, with highs mainly in the 50’s. Anytime after lunch, showers are going to move into the area, ruining evening plans for outdoor activities. There may be a break in the rain sometime Wednesday, maybe even a break of sun? It will  be warmer, with highs in the upper 60’s. Look for rain to come back with a vengeance later wednesday, and fall heavily into Thursday morning. It will also be cooler with highs only in the 50’s. Friday may dawn murky, with fog and drizzle on Friday. This may burn off during the afternoon allowing for some sun and warmer temperatures, with highs in the 60’s again. Right now, Saturday is a bit iffy, there may be one more spoke of energy moving through with more showers and cooler weather. This is not a sure bet, but one of the more reliable computer models does show this happening, so I can’t rule it out. At this point, if everything works out, Mother’s Day will feature sunny & warmer weather, with highs in the upper 70’s!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor the pattern for the rest of May, as well as have a new weather topic of the week to talk about. In the meantime, be prepared for more rain on the way, keep those  lawn mowers close at bay, and flowers for Mother’s Day to make her day!

Pete

A murky outlook…4/30/12

Before I begin, I  would like to clarify something. In last week’s blog, I stated that the rainstorm of last weekend under performed in the rainfall department. As it turned out, the storm did deliver the amount of rain that was forecasted and then some. A good 2 to 4 inches of rain fell across the Boston metropolitan area as well as adjacent areas in southern New Hampshire. This storm was forecasted well by computer models and forecasters alike. I did not do my job and check observations before I wrote my post. Anyway, it was a good soaker, we needed it, and we’re going to need a whole lot more as we move into the summer months.

Moving on, I have alot to talk about in a short amount of time to do it in. Today we are concluding our 10th straight month of above normal monthly temperatures here in Boston. And we’re not talking  just a little warmer than average here. Starting from about November through April, it has averaged a whopping 6 degrees above normal in each month. The winter that wasn’t has turned into the spring of the ages around here. The good times keep rolling on in the weather department here in New England.

As stated above, the warmth has continued into April. Boston will record its second warmest April on record, falling only behind the infamous April of 1976. Leaves are in full bloom, lawns are being mowed on a regular basis, and people have already been to the beach several times already. In my life time, I have only seen two other April’s like this, and this one has exceeded those as far as early summer weather! We are running a good month ahead of schedule with the spring timetable. In other words, it looks more like the beginning of June rather than May. With the help of last week’s rainstorm, we ended up just a little below average precipitation for April.

Now that we are moving into the month of May, you would think the weather will just keep getting warmer…right? Well I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but my fear of a global pattern change right before the summer starts appears to be on the table. Talk of one of the hottest summer’s on record, and blistering heat waves in July and August was just that, talk. While May still may end up a little above normal temperature wise, it also could easily end up being our first below average month in nearly a year. The North Atlantic Oscilation, a.k.a The Greenland Block, which has been non-existant fore the past 6 months, is starting to show up on the weather charts. For those who love hot & dry summers, this is not good news. The NAO is normally a winter time phenomina which surpresses the jet stream south of New England, often bringing cooler and wetter conditions to our area. The recent cold nights are a sign that a cooler regime is settling in. 

So is this the beginning of the summer that wasn’t? I hope not. However, I do believe May will be significantly cooler than what we’ve been used to.  Overall, I’m expecting May to end up being slightly below average temperatures, and also feature more rain than what we have been used to. Will this trend continue into the summer? I believe it will. Right now, I am expecting a cooler summer than what we’ve experienced from the last two years. Does this mean it will be freezing cold and no beach weather? No, it may end up being just a normal type of summer around here, which is just fine by many! I will have my official summer forecast coming in a few weeks from now…so stay tuned!

Now time for my weekly weather topic. Since this is severe weather awareness week here in southern New England, the topic will be thunderstorms. It’s been a while since we’ve had any thunder here in Boston. Generally speaking, thunder can occur at any time of the year here in Boston. However, we typically get thunderstorms from May through August around here.

So what cuases thunder? Thunder is a loud noise, rumble, or a clap, and is a by product from lightning. In other words, thunder is a loud expansion of air due to intense heating from a lightning discharge. So what causes lightning? Lightning is a electrical discharge cuased by a build up of  positive and negative electrons colliding with each other between the clouds, or from the ground to the clouds. Here in Boston, a severe thunderstorm is classified as a storm which has gusts of wind exceeding 58 mph, and or hail in 1″ in diameter. Because we live next to the ocean, severe thunderstorms usually weaken as they make it inside of Rt. 128 and Rt. 95. The marine layer stabilizes the air, weakening the storms. This is not to say we do not get severe thunderstorms, we do, just not as many as inland areas. Make no mistake about it, lightning is very dangerous, and is one of the leading causes of death, I believe behind cancer and car accidents here in the U.S. If you hear thunder, lightning could strike! Seek shelter immediately, and not under a tree!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. I will give this week another 5 out of 10. Look for increasing high clouds for the rest of your Monday, with highs in the upper 50’s and low 60’s. Look for thickening clouds tonight with rain developing by day break. it won’t be as cold with lows mainly in the 40’s. Look for a dreary day for Tuesday, with periods of rain and drizzle for the better part of the day. It will also be cold and damp with winds coming in from the ocean, highs will barely touch 50. Expect low clouds to persist into tomorrow night, with possibly more drizzle, lows will be in the 40’s. Wednesday will feature more cloudy weather, especially in the morning. If the clouds break in the afternoon, temperatures may warm to the upper 50’s. I don’t expect any rain Wednesday. After some light showers, we may warm up into the 60’s on Thursday. There may be some more showers Thursday night. If we get lucky, we may briefly bust into the warm air on Friday, with highs in the upper 70’s? There may be another round of showers, or maybe even a thundershower Friday evening. Look for cooler weather next weekend, with highs in the 60’s on Saturday, and maybe around 60 on Sunday. It looks mostly dry, but I can’t rule out a few showers at some point.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor the pattern and have a new update for you on what May will be like, as well as your Mother’s Day outlook!  I will also have a new weather topic to talk about next week. In the meantime, I’ll let Mother Nature work on clearing up the murky outlook!

Pete