Rain quenches area…4/23/12

It’s not every day that I talk about rainstorms in my blog. Typically, we get rain at least once a week around here. This has not been the case though this year, as last nights event was the first soaking rainfall we’ve received since January 12th! It had become so dry, that the National Weather Service had declared southern New England in a severe short term drought!

So after last night’s rainstorm, can we declare the drought over? The short answer to this question is no! The storm, although impressive, was not the type of storm that could break the drought. Up until yesterday, the Boston area was running 8″ below normal for precipitation for this calender year. The good news, is that we had such a surplus of precipitation from last year, that all of our reservoirs are in extremeley good shape so far. The rain last night was good enough to give the Boston area a good drink of water. Although 2 to 4 inches of rain was forecasted, it appears as if the rain moved through the area much faster than anticipated, resulting in only 1 to 2.”

Some people yesterday asked me if this storm was a nor’easter. Yes, it was a late season winter type of storm. It was not a classic nor’easter in terms of its track, but it behaved in much the same way as a nor’easter does around here. In fact, in parts of western New York state, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, heavy wet snow fell, downing trees and power lines much like the October nor’easter did around here last year. Late season nor’easters are not unheard of around here. There have been many late season storms in New England, even into May, that have produced prolific snow accumulations, especially over the higher terrain.

After such a warm winter and spring so far, this year does not look like the type of year to produce one of these storms in New England. In fact, with all of the warm weather we have been having, it looks like we are running a good month ahead of schedule with the spring time table! As I was riding around yesterday, I was amazed to see everything in full bloom already. This is what happens when you get repetitive days with temperatures in the 80’s and low 90’s so early in the season. Leaves are already out here in the Boston area, and my sister told me that the lilacs are already beginning to bloom in southern New Hampshire…a good three weeks ahead of schedule! At the rate we are going, we may be in for the longest summer in New England history! Cooler weather this week will temper this slightly, but this may be only a temporary setback.

In today’s weather topic, I would like to talk about a phenomina that brings a smile to everyones face. Today I would like to talk about the formation of rainbows. Actually, I’m not sure what category rainbows fall into, weather or Mother Nature’s magical moments. While pondering over it, it’s actually a combination of the two. Rainbows are a refraction of sun light passing through water droplets from a passing shower, to create a prism of beautiful colors. Though they can happen at any time, our best rainbows generally occur during the late afternoon. When the sun is setting in the western sky, and a shower is off towards the east, the sun angle can refract light off of the water droplets to create a rainbow of colors. In winter, ice crystal clouds can refract off of the light from the moon to cause a halo. Other rainbows can occur in the sky when the sun refracts off of ice crystal clouds to create a phenomina called a “sun dog.”

Now for your weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. This week will not feature summery weather as the past couple. I will give this week a 5 out of 10. As far a spring weather goes, this week will be more what it normally is like around here in the spring. Look for some breaks of sun for the rest of your Monday, along with another chance of a shower at any time this afternoon. It will be mild for a time, with highs in the lower 60’s. Tonight will turn cooler, with variable clouds along with the chance of a shower. I do not expect any washouts tonight. For Tuesday through Friday, expect typical spring weather for around here, with some sun, along with alot of building afternoon cumulus clouds. These clouds will build up enough each afternoon to produce some scattered showers. In fact, there may be another system moving through the area on Thursday into Friday morning to produce widespread showers. Temperatures will average near normal throughout the period, with highs in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s during the day, and mainly in the 40’s at night. As for next weekend, I’m going to keep it dry for now, but be aware that there is a chance of another storm coming close enough for some rain sometime on Saturday. It will be noticeably cooler, with highs only in the lower 50’s, and lows in the 30’s! Sorry, no beach weather next weekend!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will have your outlook for the month of May, as well as review how April turned out. I will also have a new weather topic to talk about. Keep in mind, I will have my official summer forecast coming out next month. In my preview for May, I may drop a few hints at what the much anticipated summer forecast may be like. In the meantime, keep an eye to the sky for rainbows this week, the conditions may be ideal!   ***Go Bruins!!***

Pete

Sounds of the season…4/16/12

Happy Patriot’s Day everyone! I can’t believe it has been two years now since I started writing my blog! Today is a special day in the Boston area. Not only is it Patriot’s Day, but the Boston Marathon is being run today, and the Red Sox are playing their traditional baseball game as well!

Though not a national holiday, Patriot’s Day is a holiday celebrated in Massachusetts and Maine, and is a day filled with rich history and tradition around these parts. So what is Patriot’s Day? This is a day which commemorates the battles of Lexington and Concord, fought near Boston back in 1775.

Have you ever been walking in the North End in Boston and walked by the statue of Paul Revere on his horse, and the Old North Church? This is what makes Boston famous! Paul Revere, an American silversmith and a patriot in the American Revolution was instramental in helping the Patriot’s fight off the British in the American Revolution.

Famous for his “midnight ride” from Boston to Lexington to inform Samuel Adams and John Hancock that the British were coming to arrest them. Revere, along with Robert Newman, who was the sexton at the Old North Church, set up an intelligence and alarm system to keep watch on the British military. “One if by land,  two if by sea,” was the signal used with a light beacon  in the steeple of the Old North Church to inform Revere which way the British were moving. When the beacon flashed twice, the intelligence system was implamented, and Revere knew the British were moving by way of water. Revere then made history with his ride out to Concord to inform the patriot troops of the British invasion.

While celebrating Easter Sunday yesterday, many relatives were asking me what’s happening with this weather! I told them, despite a few brief cool downs, we are still in a warm pattern for the foreseebale future. In fact, you could call today almost hot! This is unfortunate, as this is the last type of weather suited for marathon runners! I’m not a marathon runner, but I can tell you that this is the worst kind of weather for runners. I believe most runners would prefer temperatures in the upper 50’s with a moderate tail wind blowing in from west to east.

Despite being so warm today, it won’t be as hot as it was back in 1976. That marathon was known as “the running of the hoses,” as temperatures soared to 94 degress that day! It was so hot that spectators were hosing down the runners with garden hoses as they made their way from Hopkington to Boston. This was officially the hottest Boston Marathon on record! Shortly, I will let you know just how hot it will get for today’s marathon in my forecast.

As I was waking up today, I heard a familiar sound coming from outside. It was the sound of spring, or even early summer! Not only were the birds singing, but the sounds of landscapers mowing and trimming lawns were eminating throughout the neighborhood.

When you stop to think about it, each season has its own sounds which we’ve come to recognize. In winter, we hear shovels being scraped along sidewalks, scrapers along windshields of cars, snowblowers blowing snow, or maybe it’s skis slicing through fresh powder at a mountain on a crisp winters morning! To some people, these are sounds that they would rather not hear. Fortunately for them, they didn’t hear these sounds in the winter that wasn’t this year!

When we think of sounds of spring and summer, we think of birds singing, kids playing outside in a pool, waves gently crashing along a rocky shoreline, grass being mowed, the swing of a golf club, or the crack of a bat at a ball game. All of these sounds sounds of spring and summer seem to be arriving several weeks earlier than normal this year..which is fine by many!

Autumn has its own sounds. People raking and blowing leaves into piles, outdoor football games, people working on the exterior of their homes before winter, people splitting wood, or just the sound of walking through fallen leaves are all the sounds that tells us it’s fall!

So what about the weather for the rest of April? You know it’s going to be hot today, but is this really the beginning of summer? The quick answer to this is no. Yes, this week is going to be warmer than normal, but I do see another cool down coming for a time next week, so don’t get used to this summer weather just yet. We may even get a much needed rainstorm come this weekend. After that, we will warm up again before the month finishes. All in all, April will turn out to be our 10th straight month of above normal temperatures here in Boston, as forecasted.

I have said it before, but i will say it again. We are in a unprecedented stretch of warm and dry weather here in New England. Spring is running a good 2 to 4 weeks ahead of schedule! Despite the recent warm weather, patterns are shifting globally, and we are more susceptible of rapidly changing conditions now, than we were during the winter. It will be interesting to see if this pattern can hold through the upcoming summer…stay tuned!

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. This week will be rated another 7 out of 10, due to the exceptional weather for a good part of the work week. Due to the stable nature of the pattern, I can also bundle the forecast again. Expect sunny and hot weather for the rest of your Monday. It will be true summer conditions with high temperatures ranging between 85 and 90 across the Boston area. A great day for the beach! There will be a few clouds tonight, as a dry cold front moves through the area, lows will be in the 50’s. It will be a good 10 degrees cooler tomorrow, with highs still around 80 degrees with plenty of sun! Very unusual for April. Watch for very pleasant spring weather to be in place from Wednesday through Friday, with plenty of sun along with some clouds, and highs cooling back into the 60’s. Next weekend is iffy right now. There may be rain moving in, especially on Sunday, along with cooler temperatures. It’s tough to nail down the timing from right now, however, be prepared for some unsettled weather.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be taking a sneak peek preview at what I think this summer may be like. My official forecast does not come out until May, but I’m beginning to assemble my ideas. I will also pick a certain weather phenomina to talk about. I will also have your forecast for the last week of April! In the meantime, whether it’s normal or not, enjoy the summertime weather we have for today, who knows what tomorrow will bring?

Pete

Drought concerns…4/9/12

I hope everyone enjoyed their holiday yesterday! Whether it was Easter or Passover, or in the Greek Orthodox religion Palm Sunday. Unfortunately, the weather did not turn out to be anything like I had forecasted! In fact, you would of been better suited with a winter coat than a Easter outfit! With a storm stalled out in the Maritimes northest of New England, it was just far enough away to keep precipitation away, but just close enough to pinwheel heavy clouds and a gusty raw wind. If you live in northern Maine, you were dealing with a wintery Easter surprise…as snow fell for much of the day!

If you have lived in New England long enough like myself, the weather becomes part of your life. You begin to notice particular things about the climate around here. For one, you begin to notice that the weather is always changing. You don’t have to be a meteorologist to figure that one out! I have been closely following the climate here in New England practically my whole life. One thing I can tell you about our climate, is that we don’t have any one particular climate. In fact, if you follow the climate carefully enough, you would notice that we experience almost every type of climate from all around the world at one point or another during the course of a year.

For instance, I believe our current climate is similar to that of semi arid desert type climate,  somewhere in the southwest, like Oklahoma, Nebraska, or even Colorado. Our dry pattern, which developed after Irene blew through last September, has blossomed into moderate drought conditions here in southern New England over the course of the winter. Currently, since the beginning of 2012, we should have had about 12″ of prcipitation, we have only had about 5″ so far, or approximately 7″ less than normal! If this pattern were to continue for another month or two, we could start talking about a serious situation for us here in southern New England this summer. Fortunately, we live in New England. Eventually the pattern will change again, and precipitation will come back. Storms will start crossing the area, tapping into the Atlantic Ocean, and the rains will come again. I remember the last time I talked of drought here in New England last year, waves of rain quickly changed that situation!

With all that being said, there has been fairly long stretches of dry weather here in the northeast. Back in the 1960’s there was a stretch of about 4 years of abnormally dry weather! Then I remember back in 1994 through 1995 we had a very serious drought across much of New England, where reservoirs were at there lowest points in decades. Of course that drought ended with the wicked winter of 1995-96, with record amounts of snow!

It is interesting to note, and many people have been asking me this question, will all of this dry weather lead to a hot dry summer? A very good observation from folks! My official summer forecast does not come out until sometime in May, however, one could argue, a warm dry winter and spring, could lead into a hot dry summer. When there is copious amounts of precipitation suring the winter and spring months, it takes longer for the sun to heat up the ground, because of the high moisture level in the ground, which would argue for a cooler summer. In Texas, dry winters and springs tend to lead into scorching dry summers. Many times, hot dry weather, tends to breed upon itself. Will this happen this year in New England? It’s still a little to early to be sure, however I would say there is a possibility. My official summer forecast will be out in about a month… so tune in then to find out!

Before I get to the forecast, I quickly wanted to review the winter that wasn’t, winter 2011-12. I think it’s safe to say that we are done with snow here in southern New England, especially here in the coastal plain. In other years, I would wait until the beginning of May, but this year has been just too warm! In fact, winter 2011-12 will go down as one of the warmest and driest on record! When I made my winter forecast back in November, I knew we were going to have an off year with below normal snows. What I did not see coming was the the second least snowfall on record here in Boston, only 9.6″ at Logan Airport, and one of the warmest and driest winters on record! So with that being said, I would rate my forecast a B+ overall, since I was one of the only people in the field forecasting a winter of below normal snow across the region. Other than that, there was not much to review this winter. We did have the freak October storm, which I also said would be the largest storm of the season for many areas, which turned out to be true! For those who love winter and snow, the super computer long range forecasts for next winter are already beginning to paint a much different picture for us next winter!

Now for you weekly spring outdoor activity forecast. Let’s try this again. I am giving this week a 7 out of 10 again, weighted heavily for the beautiful weather anticipated for later this week into next weekend. Sound familiar? Last week’s forecast didn’t work out so well, so hope I do better this week! Because of the pattern, I can bundle the forecast this week. From today through Thursday, you can expect lots of clouds during the day, with some showers from time to time, especially on Thursday. There will be no washouts at any given point, just unsettled. It will not be cloudy all of the time, as there will be some splashes of sunshine from time to time. It will be chilly, with highs mainly in the 50’s throughout the period. In fact, it will be cold enough that there will be some snow up in the mountains on Wednesday. Expect more sunshine and warmer temperatures starting on Friday, with highs near 60. Right now, next weekend looks to feature warmer temperatures moving in, along with sunny weather, highs may approach 70 by Sunday! Of course, that’s what I said last week!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will let you know just how warm it may get for the second half of April! I will also monitor our current drought condiotions and see if any relief is in sight! I will also have your Patriot’s Day forecast, always a fun day here in Boston! As a reminder, if anyone has any questions or would like me to talk about any specific subject, you can e-mail me directly at info@hrappliance.com. In the meantime, when it comes to forecasting dry weather, when in doubt forecast drought!

Pete

Typical April weather…4/2/12

Looking back now, it all seemed like a dream. The anomilous warmth that blasted into New England nearly two weeks ago almost seems like it never happened. People going to the beach, eating ice cream outdoors, taking long walks in the park with shorts and t-shirts on, people wearing flip flops, not to mention flowers and trees blooming  a good six weeks ahead of schedule. Boy, has Mother Nature put the brakes on all of this nonsense. Don’t get me wrong, I do like summer weather (aside from the flip flops), just not in March! It was a spectacle to see.

It could have been even more of a dramatic turn around. You know it has turned colder of late, but we also came dangerously close at having snow recently on a couple of ocassions. However, unlike last winter, when every chance of snow overproduced in accumulations, this year has been the exact opposite. Every threat of snow has either fizzled, or just turned to rain. Later in weather history, I will remember a storm that didn’t fizzle at this time of the year.

I would love more than anything to close the book on winter 2011-12 for good. Every time computer models show a significant pattern change…it never happened. And believe me, they have been saying a change is on the way for months now. My fear isthe pattern is going to change, right before the summer. As stated before, it has been an unprecedented stretch of warm weather. There has been nine straight months of above normal temperatures here in Boston. If you extrapolate that a little further, there has been only one month in the past year that was below normal, and that was only by a half of a degree, last June! Later, I will let you know whether the warm trend will continue this April.

It’s amazing how Mother Nature works. In nature, everything happens for a reason. She controls everything around us in such subtle ways, that you are barely aware of the end results. Persistent patterns develop for reasons. Heavy rains and floods give life to certain flowers,  trees and insects, only to be taken away by drought and wildfires. Who knows, it’s possible that the dry weather New England has have been experiencing this winter and spring, maybe her way of curbing the excessive mosquito population expected in New England this summer? The unexpected frost after the fruit trees bloomed could of killed a more deadly type of bacteria that we didn’t know was growing.

Speaking of nature, something to be very concerned about for our future has been the reduction of our bee population. Without bees, flowers would not be able to pollinate. This would have disastrous consequences on our society. Another thing to be concerned about, is the disappearance of our little brown bats. In recent years, a fungus called white tip fungus, has been wiping out the bat population. Bats are very important in our ecologic sysytem, eating thousands of insects each night. For whatever reason this is happening, it’s important to be aware of these environmental situations we are in, and trust that Mother Nature will take care of things in the way she only knows how to.

So what about April? April is a true spring month here in New England. In some years, April can still be quite a wintery month, especially in northern New England. Typically, in the Boston area, we start out with high temperatures around 50, by months end we are around 60. It can be a rainy month, April showers bring May flowers! We generally average between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation. Some years, this does not fall all as rain. April can be stormy, bringing a stinging reminder that winter will not be forgotten easily, with a heavy snowstorm. This happens about once every 5 years or so. More snow falls in the mountains and interior locations than along the coast. Whatever does fall, melts quickly in the strong April sun. April can also feature warm sunny days, with a burst or two of summer weather appearing at some point during the month. Among other highlights, the Boston Marathon happens in this month, trees begin to bud, and the grass starts to turn green.

For this April, I will be sticking with the trend. Although not as great of a departure as March (9 degrees above normal), I do believe it will end up above normal again in the end. However, I do see the pattern starting to change a bit. So I think we will have a bit more variability, meaning more cooler spells punctuated by some warm weather at times. It doesn’t appear likely, but I still can’t rule out some late season snows for part of interior New England. For what it’s worth  it looks like we are done here along the coast, it’s just too warm this year. For gardeners out there, be aware that this is a very shaky period. With the volatile pattern, there may be several cold nights with frosts/freezes still ahead! I’m expecting a dryer than normal month for precipitation.

Before I get to the forecast, I would not be giving due justice to New England weather if I didn’t mention this storm. Back on April 1st 1997, the April Fool’s blizzard paralyzed the Boston area. Blizzard conditions, thunder and lightning, heavy wet snow and gale force winds made this storm one for the record books. In fact, this ended up being Boston’s 4th largest snowstorm in history. After a mild winter, Boston decided to put the snow plows away for the season. When the city woke up that morning, the snow was so deep and heavy on the streets, plows couldn’t make their way through the city streets. A total of 25.4″ fell at Logan airport, and up to 36″ in some parts of Worcester County!

Now for your outdoor recreational spring forecast. I will give this week a 7 out of 10, weighted heavily for nice weather anticipated next weekend. Look for increasing sunshine for the rest of your Monday. Temperatures will warm up to about 50, which is just about average. Expect clear and chilly weather overnight, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s regionwide. Watch for more sunshine for Tuesday, with highs in the mid 50’s. Fair weather will continue Tuesday night, not as cold, with lows in the 30’s and 40’s. There may be some clouds and possibly a few light showers at some point on Wednesday. It will not be a washout, with highs in the middle 50’s again. It may be slightly cooler on Thursday, along with some sunshine, highs will be in the lower 50’s. Expect fair weather to continue on Friday, with highs in the mid 50’s. Watch for the full “Pink”  moon Friday night, under clear skies. The good news I have is for next weekend. Look for mostly sunny weather to continue and a warming trend! High temperatures will be near 60 on Saturday, and possibly close to 70 for Easter Sunday!

Well that’s about it for now! In next weeks blog, I will review the non-winter of 2011-12. I will also update everyone whether our wonderful spring weather will continue or not. In the meantime, remember it’s the extremes that make the averages in the world of weather, so for this week, “average” is good!

Pete

A chilling reminder…3/26/12

People have been asking me alot of questions lately…and rightfully so! They have been asking, Pete, is this global warming? Does this mean we are going to have a hot summer? Does this mean winter is completely over and we can start going to the beach on a regular basis now? All of these questions have answers, whether they are the right answers is up for debate, and who you ask!

One thing I do know, is that the weather the past couple of weeks has raised some eyebrows, and got people talking. Last week was perhaps the warmest stretch of weather that I have ever seen for so early in the season. How warm was it? It was so warm that local forsythia are in full bloom. So warm that many fruit trees have blossomed, along with the magnolia trees. So warm that grass went from winter brown color, to spring green in a matter of a few days! It was so warm last Thursday, a friend of mine from New Hampshire called me after spending a whole day at Hampton Beach sunbathing, as if it were mid-summer!

It was a unprecedented week of weather, with countless of record highs being broken all across New England. Some of these records stood for nearly 140 years! And they were’nt just boken by a degree or two, many were smashed by a dozen degrees. very unusual indeed! In addition to the heat, it has been unusually dry for New England standards. This dry spell, coupled with low dew points and gusty west winds, has increased the brush fire danger here in New England to unprecedented levels this year. If you do smoke, (you really shouldn’t be!), but if you do, please dispose your cigarette butts in a responsible manner! It is tinder dry out there!

So what’s causing all of this unusual weather? I’m not sure if I have the exact answers, but I do have some theories. First off, this is not global warming! If these types of weather patterns were to repeat themselves over a course of several years, then I would become very skeptical! NEXT YEAR IS GOING TO BE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT!

So why has it been so warm lately? I believe it’s just Mother Nature’s way of balancing the weather patterns. The past couple of winters were more harsh than usual, this year, the country as a whole caught a welcome break. Other areas of the world were having severe winter conditions and bitter cold weather! In the chaotic nature of the jet stream and overall global patterns, the U.S., and especially New England was caught in a persistent “sweet spot” of nice weather!

Dr. Joe D’Aleo (one of the greatest meteorology scientist of our generation) of WeatherBell Analytics wrote a great post this morning. He attributed this unusual “supercharged” heat wave here in March from a few things. First, the warm, dry winter we had made it easier for even warmer weather to develop when the radiation from the sun began to increase. Speaking of the sun, this was the main reason he thought the warm spell went from ordinary, to extraordinary. He believes, and I also concur with him, that the major solar radiation storms we had recently, supercharged the atmosphere, resulting in a huge area of record smashing high temperatures. In other years with similar solar activity, similar temperature patterns were observed!

On to topics that matter most to most folks. People have been asking me if this means we are in for a hot summer. My official summer forecast will not be published until May, however I can drop a few hints! I don’t want to be the Grinch who stole summer, but early indications show that this warm spell we have been in for nearly 10 months now, is showing signs of collapsing. I don’t know if it will begin next month in April, or May, but changes are brewing. My early thinking is a summer that is not cold, but somewhat cooler than normal, to possibly just normal. Already, while we were asleep last Friday, a cold front slipped through our area, taking away our early summer with it. In fact, I don’t believe we will see temperatures that warm again, until maybe June! It has been studied that very warm months of March does not corrolate well with hot summers. In my forecast, you will see that you had better put away the flip flops and summer attire until further notice! In addition, I would not be surprised if we have a late season snowstorm for many areas sometime in the first two weeks of April! Winter is not over just yet!

Now for your outdoor weekly spring forecast. Better get your winter gear out for the next couple of days! I will rate this week a 6 out of 10, much chillier than what we have been used to. Look for brilliant March sunshine this afternoon, along with a increasingly gusty wind. high temperatures will peak early this afternoon, in the mid 40’s, then drop towards evening. Tonight will have winter conditions, with clear skies and very cold temperatures, lows will be in the teens in the suburbs, and 20’s along the coast.  Winter coats will be needed tomorrow morning! We will have sunny weather along with a gusty wind, it will feel almost bitter in the morning with wind chills near 10 degrees…brrrrr!!  High temperatures will struggle to reach the very low 40’s by afternoon under dry conditions. It will be cold again Tuesday night, with lows mainly in the teens and 20’s again under clear skies. Look for a sunny start on Wednesday, but a cloudy finish, it still will be chilly, with highs only in the mid to upper 40’s. There may be some showers moving through on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. If there is enough moisture left over, there may be some wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain, especially areas north and west of Boston on Thursday morning. This will not be a big storm however. It will continue to be on the raw side, with highs in the upper 40’s. Friday shold be a sunnier day, with highs near 50. Right now, next weekend is a bit questionable. Some computer models are hinting at a storm for Sunday. Right now, we will keep it dry for Saturday, and maybe just some showers moving in for Sunday, temperatures will cool each day, with highs mainly in the 40’s to perhaps very low 50’s. This part of the forecast is subject to updates, as the patterns may  be changing!

Well that’s about it for now! In next weeks blog, I will review the month of March, as well as have my preview at what we can expect for the month of April. I will also have your Easter Sunday forecast. In addition, I will let you know if we may see a late season snowstorm or not! In the meantime, I apologize for the chilling reminder of winter, but now you will be prepared for the thermal shock you will feel the next couple of mornings!

Pete

R.I.P…Ken Reeves, Accuweather.com Vice President and standout meteorologist. We will miss you.

Record spring warmth!! 3/19/12

I’ll be the first to tell you, spring is not my favorite season. In fact, It’s my least favorite! I realize that I am one of those odd warlocks that actually looks forward to a long New England winter! However, this year is different. Since we didn’t have a winter, the trasnsition into spring was made that much easier. Those of you who love the winter as much as I do know what I’m talking about. There usually is a “feeling blue” period about this time of the year, when winter begins to fade away. It probably is the reverse kind of feeling that people get when we turn the clock’s back an hour in early November. They know that that is the dagger in the heart, and a long winter is settling in.

In a typical year, the battle between spring overtaking winter is fierce in New England. This year, winter never arrived, leaving spring the only one in the boxing ring. As much as I don’t like the season, I can, and do, appreciate beautiful weather. Yesterday, I must admit, could possibly of been the nicest winter time day’s (technically it is still winter) that I have ever seen here in New England! It was a stellar day for those attending the St. Patrick’s Day Parade in South Boston yesterday, or anyone doing yardwork, or for those taking a long walk or jog in a park.

So there’s no denying it, tomorrow marks the first day of spring! One could argue spring has been here since January! Nevertheless, spring is here, and I’m here to tell you, that for this week, not only will spring officially arrive, but it will also bring it’s partner, summer!

Yes, record warmth is coming to New England, and by Thursday, we’re talking possibly the warmest temperatures so early in the season! How warm? I will have the exact temperatures for you in my forecast, but here’s a clue, it will be warm enough to go to the beach, and to break out your flip flops!

Now that spring is here, what can you expect in the coming weeks? We’ve already seen flowers blooming, and pollen filling the air. With the surge of summer temperatures on the way, you can expect “green up” conditions to arrive possibly up to one month ahead of schedule! Green up is a term used in northern climes to define when the lawns start to turn green, and trees start to flower, and anything else that turns from winter time brown, to spring time green!

This process generally starts from the coastline and pushes westward towards the interior of New England as we move deeper into the spring. In the Boston area, lawns normally start to turn green around mid-April, then need their first mow around May 1st. Trees begin to blossom around the same time, with leaves fully out by May 10th.

Frosts become less likely along the coast, but still can happen up until about mid April. Further inland, frosts can still occur up until mid May! Snow also becomes less likely, but can, and has happened in the past! Spring snows can be significant, but melt quickly and makes for good conversation than anything else! Some notable spring storms that have happened in the past: May 9th, 1977, April 6th, 1982, March 28th-29th, 1984, April 28th, 1987, dual storms from April 7th -10th, 1995, and the grand daddy of them all, April 1st, 1997!

Like I said earlier, with such a warm winter, and all of the very warm air coming, we will be running a good 3 weeks ahead of normal spring time table. I would not be surprised if we are mowing lawns by mid April this year. Up north, they are expecting a record early “ice out” on lake Winnipesaukee. The previous record was March 24th, set just two years ago, they are predicting March 22nd this year! Ice out is when the winter ice breaks apart or melts off of the lake. As for spring skiing, I say enjoy it now, unless we can pull out a cold April, things will be closing down rapidly for many of the ski resorts.

Now for your weekly outdoor spring activity forecast. This week I will be reverting back to the nice weather scale, where the higher the number the better the weather. With all of the beautiful weather on the way, I will give this week a 8 out of 10, a great way to start the season off! Expect sunny skies mixed with some high clouds for the rest of your Monday. It will warm up quickly into the 60’s. Watch for a shift in the wind later this afternoon into the northeast, this will drop temperatures into the upper 40’s by dinnertime, especially if you live within 5 miles of the ocean. There will be some low clouds and fog tonight, with lows in the 40’s. For Tuesday, expect some low clouds first thing in the morning. This will burn off to sunny skies, winds will begin to shift into the southwest, resulting in temperatures rebounding into the 60’s by the afternoon. It will be dry and mild Tuesday night. Expect summertime weather to blast into New England from Wednesday through Friday! Look for temperatures to approach 80 degrees on Wednesday, then be a record smashing 85 dgrees on Thursday with a breezy west wind under mostly sunny skies! It will be cooler on Friday, but still way above normal, with highs in the upper 60’s and low 70’s. Come next weekend, it may turn much cooler, and we may have some showers moving through on Sunday, with highs only in the 40’s!

Well that’s about it for now! In next weeks blog, I will discuss if there is any relationship between a very warm March and the following summer. Many people have been asking me what my thoughts are for the summer. My official summer forecast does not come out until May, but it won’t hurt to speculate a bit! In the meantime, be prepared for record breaking weather this week. Of course, these are the type of records many people don’t mind breaking!

Pete

Luck of the Irish…3/12/12

When I was growing up as a kid, I recalled many winters finishing in Boston with a heavy snowstorm right around St. Patrick’s Day. I can’t tell you the exact statistics, but it seemed that way to me more times than not. And believe me, I’ve been remembering the weather since I was about four! It somewhat makes sense, (if anything makes sense with the weather), that Mother Nature would throw one more parting shot right before the spring equinox, kind of like a sucker punch that you were’nt expecting! In weather history today, I will recall a year when this parting shot, was more like a scene from a Rocky movie, when Boston got knocked out cold on St. Patrick’s Day.

So what about this year? I believe the luck of the Irish will be on our side this year. In fact, looking over some long range models, this March looks like it could go down as one of the warmest marches on record across the northeast. Yesterday, while at my little nieces birthday party, well, she’s not so little anymore! They grow up so fast, that only means that we’re getting older just as fast!

Anyway, many relatives were asking me what’s up with the weather? As I stood outside with my brother in-law, I explained to him how unprecedented this type of day was here in the first part of March. With temperatures near 60, and skies as blue as the ocean on a warm summer’s day, I told him that this may be a once in a lifetime March that we’re going to have.

In a typical winter (yes, it’s still winter astronomically), we get a short burst of temperatures warming to the 50’s , maybe even 60’s for a day or two, but you would know that winter would be close by, ready to fight back. This is how March usually is, very fickle, with rapid temperature changes and lot’s of precipitation, including snow. Not this year! I explained to everyone, that basically, we are in the same pattern that we were in for the winter (which meant no winter). Now that spring is approaching, the sun angle is getting stronger, and the weather is warming up rapidly. The jet stream, (a ribbon of fast winds in the upper atmosphere that seperates the cold air from the warm), is no where to found close to New England. In fact, the Bermuda High, which is typical of a summer pattern, is controlling our weather for the foreseeable future, pumping warm southwesterly winds into New England. This is a unprecedented pattern that we’ve been in since November, a pattern that has brought many areas in New England one of the least snowiest and one of the warmest winters in history.

Before I move on, there is a little asterisk I need to make a note of. In southeast New Hampshire, just outside of Portsmouth, my trusty little weather spotter (my sister), did make an observation of nearly 5″ of snow that fell at her home on Friday night! This was an isolated event, but does show the changeable weather that March can bring!

 Over the next couple of weeks, you’re going to hear how unseasonably warm it’s going to be across the country. Oh, it will be warm here in New England as well, however, (there’s always a however), here in eastern New England, it may not get as warm as other parts of the country.

Why? Well there are many reasons. First, we happen to be living next to a body of water called the Atlantic Ocean. Second, the land heats up quicker than the oceans. This causes warm air to rapidly rise. When this happens, the cold ocean to our east rushes in along our coast, causing cooling seabreezes within 5 miles of the coast. Third, New England is farther north than many other parts of the country. We are much closer to Canada than we are to Florida, which makes us susceptible to cooler weather. Nonetheless, if we get the wind to blow just right, we too here in eastern New England may enjoy record warm temperatures at some point this March!

Now on to weather history. I mentioned earlier a year when the St. Patrick’s Day Parade was cancelled here in Boston. the year was 1993. In that year, we had a ferocious March, with nearly 40″ of snow falling in just one month! It all started about on this date, when the “Storm of the Century”, swept up the east coast. This storm delivered blizzard conditions from Georgia to Maine, with 1 to 3 feet falling in many places. Things were just getting started here in New England though. After that storm, frequent snowstorms continued to assault the city of Boston. With all of the huge snowbanks around, the city had to make a dificult decision to cancel the St. Patrick’s Day Parade that year, due to public safety concerns. Fortunately, we have not seen a March like that since!

Now for your weekly outdoor activitiy forecast. This week will feature  no winter weather, so I will give it a 9 out of 10. Look for brilliant blue skies and warm temperatures to be the rule for the rest of your Monday. Highs will generally be in the upper 60’s! If you live within 5 miles of the ocean, we may get one of those sea breezes I talked about earlier toward evening. If this does occur, temperatures may cool to the lower 50’s in these locations. Tonight will be fair, with temperatures only falling into the 30’s and 40’s. Tuesday will feature more clouds than we’ve had of late, I can’t even rule out some brief showers later tomorrow into tomorrow night. It will continue to mild with highs in the lower 60’s, and lows in the 40’s. For Wednesday and Thursday, expect variable condtions across eastern New England, as a wavy weather front will be in our vicinity. Look for mild condtions to coninue on Wednesday with highs in the 60’s, however, it may cool down into the 50’s on Thursday with a light onshore wind. I don’t see any washouts, but there may be some scattered rain showers here and there. Right mow, look for mild weather to continue for Friday, with highs once again up into the 60’s. Look for warm weather for St. Patrick’s Day, with some sun mixed with some clouds. If we get enough sun, it could push temperatures close to 70! There may be some showers moving through Saturday night. At this point, Sunday may start a bit on the murky side, but it should turn sunnier during the afternoon, with highs near 60. I hope this forecast works out for everyone!

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will focus more on the the spring time table for us here in New England. I will also review the weather charts to see if will will indeed have a warmest March on record this year. In the meantime, , hopefully the luck of the Irish can extend beyond this St. Patrick’s Day… and give us a nice summer!

Pete

Spring ahead! 3/5/12

Okay, so March didn’t come in quite like a lion last Thursday as advertised. I’d say it came in more like, maybe a coyote? A little growling, wanted to come in for the attack, but in the end, was scared off by its own shadow! If you live north of Boston, specifically in areas of southern New Hampshire and Maine, the storm was every bit as advertised, with many areas receiving between 10 and 14 inches. However in the weather business, people just want to know what’s the bottom line for their back yard, and for areas in the city of Boston, it wasn’t much! Keeping with the theme of this non-winter, it was just a little too warm to support a significant snowstorm for Boston, despite what the computer models were saying. 

I knew it was going to be a close call, and it really could of gone either way here in the city. I made a gut call decision to go with the snow. When I woke up Thursday morning and looked out the weather window, and saw that the rain had not turned to snow yet, it was a major disappointment. The misery continued through the day, as the rain / snow line danced around the city the whole day. For those keeping track of the record for having the least amount of snow in any winter, the worst part of the day was yet to come! Late in the afternoon, just enough cold air finally scoured out the marine layer, and flipped the rain to snow. By this time however, all of the heavy moisture was gone, leaving us only with light snows and flurries. However, this was just enough accumulation to surpass the record, by one tenth of an inch! So as it stands right now, this year is the second least snowiest winter on record.

Enough crying over spilled milk, things always happen for a reason, and Mother Nature already has it all planned out! So what can we expect for the changeable month of March? Typically, March is a transition month from winter to spring here in southern New England. Up in northern New England, winter usually still holds a firm grip until the end of the month. Average high temperatures usually start out in the lower 40’s and warm to the lower 50’s by the end of the month. It can be a stormy month, with nearly 4″ of precipitation on average. March can be very snowy, especially the first three weeks of the month. Typically, Boston averages about 8″ of snow. This number can be easily doubled some years, and some years it doesn’t snow at all. With spring advancing north, and winter trying to fight back, you will notice March being a very windy month. Of course, nothing has been typical this year, so expect the unexpected!

So what about this year? How is March looking for us here in New England? In keeping with the trends, I’m forecasting this month to be the ninth straight above normal month in a row here in Boston! In fact, looking at the long range forecasts, we may be having an early spring this year! Over the next two weeks, spring fever will take over the city, with several episodes of  well above normal temperatures. In fact, from what I’m seeing at this point, the spring season as a whole, appears that it will average above normal temperatures, with below normal precipitation. There will be some precipitation, but nothing extreme, and most likely March will finish below the averages.

With it being only early March, I’m not ready to say we will not receive any more snow this season. However, I do not see us reaching anything close to our average. This will mark the third March in a row with below, to much below snowfall in March. In a winter that has just been so warm, the door is closing quicker than other years for snowfall in Boston. In fact, winter 2011-12 can be summed up as being one of the warmest and one of the least snowiest winters on record here in Boston!

Now for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. I probably will have to change this to the spring outdoor forecast sooner rather than later! As for the weekly index, I’m giving this week an 8 out of 10. Obviously not much winter weather coming. However, with that being said, look for chilly weather along with bright sunshine for the rest of today and tomorrow. High temperatures will mainly be in the 30’s today, and low to mid 40’s tomorrow. Look for chilly weather at night with lows mainly in the 20’s. Look for rapidly warming temperatures to commence for Wednesday, with high temperatures possibly reaching the low 60’s! On Thursday, expect possibly a record high temperature for Boston, with highs close to 70 degrees! Unbelievable! A cold front will slice through the area Thursday night with possibly a shower or two. Watch for the full “worm” moon on Thursday night! It will be cooler on Friday and Saturday with highs in the lower 50’s and mid 40’s respectively, under dry conditions. Don’t forget to “spring ahead” and turn the clocks forward one hour Saturday night before you go to bed. Yes, we lose one hour of sleep, but it will stay light now until well after 6 o’clock! As the high pressure area moves south of us, expect this pattern to be repeated several more times, with highs bouncing back up into the 60’s by Sunday! People will be jogging outdoors in shorts, walking along the Charles or at the ocean, or even enjoying some spring skiing!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will talk a little about our spring timetable here in New England. Iwill also talk about the severe weather and the devastating tornadoes that have hit some parts of the country. I will also have your St. Patrick’s Day forecast! Time is definitely flying! In the meantime, It’s time to spring ahead, and look forward to all the new beginnings the new season has in store for us!

Pete

Snowstorm is coming! 2/29/12

After reviewing the latest computer models, I wanted to fine tune my previous forecast from my post on Monday. First, a long duration significant snowstorm is on the way for many. Second, the snow is going to begin alot earlier than I had thought on Monday. Third, this will not be all snow for people who live inside of Rt.128 and I95.

For people who live inside of Rt.128 and along Rt I95 north of the city, this will be the most significant winter storm of the season. In a winter where it hasn’t snowed, that’s not saying much. However, with that being said, this will turn out to be a nasty winter storm with heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain, and even plain rain for a time.

Watch for snow to streak into the area this afternoon, and quickly become heavy at times, resulting in a messy evening commute. Overnight, the snow will transition to a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain. The rain line will make it into the city of  Boston for a time, weighing down the snow that has fallen. As a storm intensifies south of New Engalnd on Thursday, winds will back more into the northeast, dragging colder air back into the coast, changing the rain back to heavy snow for a time during Thursday. The snow will become lighter during the day, but may not completely end until sometime Thursday night. This is a very tricky situation, and a difference of a few miles either way can make a big difference.

When the storm is through, I believe my original estimate is still a good call. However, I would like to tweek it a bit, as only a few miles will make a difference. If you live right along the coast, inside of Rt. 128, including downtown Boston, you can expect 2 to 4″ of snow. As you move towards Rt. 128, you can expect 3 to 6″ of snow. For people who live north and west of Boston, outside of Rt 128, you can expect between 5 and 9″ of snow. Areas that do not receive any mixing, such as north central Massachusetts, in towns like Orange, and Fitchburgh, you can expect accumulations of 6 to 12″, making this the biggest storm since the Halloween nor’easter. This accumulation may hold true  extending down into the Worcester area as well. For people who live in New Hampshire, all the way to I95, you can expect similar accumulations. If you live right along the water in New Hampshire, some mixing may hold accumulations down a bit, but not by much, with 5 to 10″ expected.

So in summation, be prepared for two to possibly even three commutes affected adversely by this winter storm, especially if you live 15 miles away from the coast. Expect significant accumulations, delays, and cancellations. It will not be the biggest storm that we have ever had, but in a winter where there has been no snowstorms to speak of, it will be noteworthy. I will update this blog if conditions warrant, otherwise I will talk to everyone come Monday morning!

Pete

March…to come in like a lion! 2/27/12

Last week, I talked about this year being, “the year without a winter.” True, we havn’t really had a winter up to this point. However, the storm which moved through New England over this past weekend may be a signal that our heaviest snows of the season still lie in front of us. While most of us received heavy rain from this storm on Friday night, ski areas in northern New England rejoiced as the storm rapidly intensifyed north of Boston, dumping 1 to in some cases up to 3 ft of snow! This was by far the heaviest snowfall of the season for these areas. The howling winds that tore through our area on Saturday were the by product of this intense storm as it moved into Canada.

When you stop and think about it, we usually experience several episodes of gale force winds during a typical winter season here in Boston. As you know, this winter has been anything but typical. In a typical winter, the jet stream, that seperates the cold air from the warm air is usually oscilating through New England, bringing us not only bouts of heavy precipitation, but also strong winds frome developing storms, and bitter cold air masses from nearby Canada. This year, the jet stream has been no where to be found, leaving us in a zone of tranquil, mild weather. I forecasted a less ferocious winter this year compared to last year, but even I was surprised at the lack of winter weather this year. In fact, this winter has left some of the top meteorologists in the country scratching their heads with the pattern. It just goes to show us, as much advancements we have made in the science of weather, Mother Nature still has the final say with many things.

So what’ s all this talk about March coming in like a lion? I’m sure you have heard the phrase, March comes in like a lion, and goes out like a lamb before. This is because March is still very much a wintery month here in New England, especially the first three weeks. Some of our largest snowfalls have occurred during the month of March. In fact, Boston is notorious for having one more large snowstorm on or around St. Patrick’s Day!

I’m not talking about a record breaking snowfall coming up, however, I do believe March will come in like a lion on Thursday, March 1st, with a snowstorm for many parts of the Boston area. This is a very tricky situation developing, especially in a winter that has produced nothing so far! After reviewing the latest computer models this morning, it appears there are two camps of thought. The European based models are forecasting a storm to develop south of New England Wednesday night, then only slowly move on a easterly track, while intensifing. This kind of track would keep the cold air entrenched in Boston with northeastrly winds, and heavy accumulations through the day on Thursday. Then you have the American based GFS models, saying the the storm will develop too far to our north, and only bring light accumulations to our area. With a cold high pressure area anchored to our north, I’m siding with the European model at this point. I will talk more about this storm in my forecast.

Before I get to the forecast, I wanted to briefly talk about an old Greek saying my father used to talk to me about all of the time. He said the sailors used to look at the first quarter moon and be able to predict the weather by it. When the moon was sitting up on its end,  the bowl would be empty, and fair weather would to be expected. However, if the first quarter was lying flat, the bowl would be full, and to expect stormy weather soon! The moon last night was on its back, so let’s see if  stormy weather is indeed in Boston’s future!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. After weeks of tranquil winter weather, it looks like this week will finally feature a rating lower than 5. I will give this week a 4 out of 10, with the expectation of a significant winter weather event on Thursday. Look for increasing clouds for the rest of your Monday, it will be warmer, with highs around 50…again! There may be a few very light showers this evening, otherwise, expect dry conditions, with lows mainly in the 20’s and 30’s. Tuesday will be a little cooler, with sunny skies, and highs in the mid 40’s. Watch for sneaky cold air to move into the region Tuesday night with lows in the 20’s, under dry conditions. Expect increasing clouds on Wednesday with a freshening northeast wind. It will be a cold, raw day, with highs in the upper 30’s. Watch for a light wintery mix of snow, sleet and rain to overspread the area during the late afternoon and evening. No significant accumulations are expected on Wednesday. Overnight Wednedsay, watch for the light wintery mix to become heavier, as winds freshen from the northeast, expect this mix to transition over to snow with some light accumulations by morning. At this point, Thursday looks like to be shaping up as a snowy day, with snow falling heavily at times throughout the day with gusty northeast winds. With the snow falling temperatures will hover around 32. Right now, I am expecting  accumulations of between 5 and 9 inches by the time this winds down by late Thursday night. Of course, this can change, and I will update this blog on Wednesday. Expect a break in the weather on Friday, with partly sunny weather, and highs in the upper 30’s. There will be another storm moving through on Saturday, but this one looks to be warmer, with mainly rain, with highs in the 40’s. Sunday looks fair and dry, with highs in the lower 40’s.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will preview what we should expect for weather in the changeable month of March. I will also review the 3 months consisting of meteorologic winter, which ends on Wednesday. In the meantime, watch out for that lion on Thursday, hopefully his roar will be worse than his bite! ~Thank you for reading!~

Pete