“The year without a winter”…2/20/12

Happy President’s Day to everyone! No, the title of today’s blog is not from a new book on the market, nor a new movie produced in Hollywood. This is what it is this winter, right now, we are living in weather history! Some day they may write a book or make a movie about this winter. I was going to wait a couple weeks to write about this event, but I have seen enough! Looking at the long range computer models, I do believe that not only may we break the record for the least amount of snow in any winter season, but spring may actually roar into New England several weeks ahead of schedule! I am usually the last person to wave the white flag and “give up” on winter. However, this winter is different. We have been in a unprecedented warm pattern for a better part of a year now. In fact, 10 out of the last 11 months have been above normal, with this February marking the 8th straight month with above normal temperatures here in Boston! At this point, there is no reason for me not to believe that this trend is going to continue into the upcoming spring. Over the years, I have seen several warm, dry winters here in Boston, but never one quite like this! In fact, one local meteorologists stated that this winter in Boston is one that you would find normal for Richmond, Virginia. That’s how much of a climate shift we have experienced this year! Now, could it be a bookend winter, with a freak snowstorm in October, and then one in April? Of course, this is New England after all… anything is possible!

Typically on President’s weekend, people are gearing up for all kinds of outdoor winter activities. To say that the ski resorts have had a tough year is an understatement. I can count on one hand how many snowfalls they have had this winter. In fact, if advancements in technology of snowmaking had not come along so much, many areas would have been forced to close for the season. It’s been just cold enough for them to make alot of snow this season, keeping the slopes open during this lean year. It’s also been a tough year for people who enjoy cross country skiing and snow mobiling, as there either has not been enough snow, or it has just been too warm. Speaking of warm, many lakes around New England have not frozen over thick enough for people to enjoy ice fishing and snow mobiling on them. DO NOT GO ON THE ICE, IT HAS BEEN TOO WARM AND YOU WILL FALL THROUGH. It’s happening all across New England, people falling through the ice.  Another industry that is hurting this year is people who have snow removal business, such as snow plow contrators. Hopefully they saved enough money from last year to get them through this year. I don’t know about you, but I would hate to depend on Mother Nature to make a living. I would take my chances at Foxwoods instead!

Despite our warm winter here in New England, it hasn’t been like this in other parts of the world. In fact, over 500 people have died in eastern Europe due to the severe cold wave and unprecedented blizzards that have plagued the region. Whole villages have been buried in 10 to 15 feet of snow and bitter cold temperatures. Places such as Romania, Poland, Yugoslavia, parts of Italy and even Greece have been affected by this unusual pattern. If you didn’t see it, snow even fell in Rome, Italy! Closer to home, Alaska has also had a severe winter, with bitter cold temperatures and frequent blizzards. You know,that if they say it’s been rough in Alaska…well, you can just imagine just how bad it must of been! So what’s going on? Well, for one thing, I do believe that the U.S., including us here in New England, just caught a break this winter. Generally speaking, the earth is beginning to cool off, and we’re starting to see the effects of this. Ocean temperatures are changing, and we can expect a cooler climate regime for the next 20 to 30 years. So the moral of the story, enjoy the current stretch of warmer than normal weather, eventually, Mother Nature will balance things out.

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to briefly look back in weather history. After the winter of 2001-2002, a winter similar to this one, winter 2002-2003 came back with a vengeance, with a historic blizzard on Pesident’s weekend back on February 17th -20th. This was a storm which affected millions of people from the mid-Atlantic region, right up through southern New England. In fact, Boston’s Logan airport recorded 27.5″ of snow in that storm. This storm did not feature high winds or destructive coastal flooding, but was more of a storm of tremendous thermal (temperature) contrasts. Bitter cold air poured over the Atlantic Ocean, while warm moist air rode up and over the cold air, resulting in heavy snow. The heaviest accumulations from this storm was found in communities right along the east coast.

Now for your outdoor winter activity forecast. Not surprisingly, I will rate this week a 9 out of 10. Not much wintery weather at all. Look for sunshine amidst some high clouds for the rest of your holiday. It will be the coldest day of the week, with highs in the middle 30’s with a brisk wind at times. Look for warmer weather to dominate for the rest of the week with times of inclement weather in the form of some rain showers from time to time. Expect the rainiest periods to be Tuesday night, then again from Thursday night into Friday. It will be above normal, no surprise here, with temperatures in the 40’s on Tuesday, then 50’s from Wednesday through Friday. In fact, if we get just the right pattern, there’s an outside shot that temperatures could soar to near 60 on Friday! Thereafter, temperatures may cool back down to near seasonal levels by next weekend under dry conditions. Watch for temperatures in the 40’s on Saturday, and then maybe cooling to the 30’s on Sunday with a gusty wind. Overall, no snow this week, and above normal temperatures are expected. I can see the flowers starting to sprout already!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be on the look out to see if there is any snow on the way to prevent us from breaking the record for least amount of snow ever! With the end of February in sight, I will have a forecast to let you know whether March comes in like a lion or not! In the meantime, enjoy the rest of “the year without a winter.” Mother Nature has another version of this story, and it rhymes with bummer!

Pete

Mid winter blues…2/13/12

This is going to be one of my shorter posts in a while, as time is not on my side today! So here we are, mid February already, and  so far we have managed to not have any major winter storms this winter. This is just not in the Boston area, this extends well up into New Hampshire, and even Vermont. Northern Maine, as usual, beats to its own drum. It hasn’t been severe or anything close to that. However, while we bask in an abnormally warm winter, they have managed to have some semblence of winter time. It’s different up there, most of northern Maine is surrounded by Canada. For those who love wintertime, storms, and all of the outdoor activities that go along with that, I feel your pain. When last year every storm that came towards New England was met with a fresh batch of cold air and over achieved with accumulations, this year is the exact opposite. Storms that are predicted fizzle out at the last second, or the cold air moves out just as the moisture arrives. This past Saturday was a good example of this. It wasn’t predicted to be a major storm, however, the computer models were painting out a solid 3 to 6″ of snow during the day Saturday, with perhaps as much as 8″ south of the city. Much to the chagrin to snow plow operators and ski resort owners, only a few wet snowflakes managed to make it to the ground. Boston has only receved 7.8″ of snow so far this season. If we do not receive any more measurable snow, this will go down as the least snowiest winter in recorded history! The year 1936 still holds the record, with only 9″ falling that winter. With nearly 6 weeks of the snow season left, I find it very unlikely we beat that record…but you never know.

With Valentine’s Day being tomorrow, I did want to mention a historic blizzard that struck Boston on February 14th, way back in 1940. This was a dangerous blizzard, which caught many people off gaurd. This storm was a rapidly intensifying cyclone which featured high winds and up to 20″ of windblown snow, paralyzing the Boston area. Today, computer models would probably give sufficient warning to people so this situation would be averted.

Now for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. Not much winter weather coming this week, so severity index will be a 8 out of 10. The higher the number, the less winter weather expected. Look for sunshine amidst passing cumulus clouds for the rest of the afternoon. There will be a gusty wind out there that will make it feel colder than it actually is. Temperatures will bounce back to near 40 degrees. Expect some increasing high clouds overnight, with lows mainly in the 20’s. Valentine’s Day will feature mostly cloudy weather with milder temperatures,  highs will reach the mid 40’s. If you have plans on going out tomorrow night, expect mainly cloudy weather, with just the chance of a few sprinkles, nothing big. Wednesday will be another cloudy, mild day, with highs once again in the mid to perhaps upper 40’s. There may be some light showers at some point during the day, no washout is anticipated. Watch for some sunshine for the first part of Thursday, with increasing clouds during the afternoon. It will be mild again, with highs near 50. There will be a storm moving through the area Thursday night and the first part of Friday. Right now, with temperatures so warm, look for mainly rain for the city of Boston points south. However, the further one travels to the north and west, you may encounter either a mix of rain and snow, or even perhaps a few slushy iches of wet snow. This is especially true if you live in southern New Hampshire away from the ocean, and west of Rt 495 in the higher terrain of Massachusetts. Either way, this is not going to be a major storm. Look for clearing skies later on Friday with highs back in the 40’s. At this point, next weekend looks to feature dry weather, with temperatures in the 40’s on Saturday, maybe cooling bak into the 30’s on Sunday.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will discuss how it may be warm here in New England this winter, but this is not the case for countries in Europe and other parts of the world. I will talk about how if these patterns mean anything for us here in New England in the short term and long term. I will also discuss in further detail how this warm winter has affected the economy here in New England, in a positive and negative way. In the meantime, true, some may be singing the winter blues this year, but others are singing different tune! ~Wishing everyone a Happy Valentine’s Day!~

Pete

Remembering, “The Great Blizzard of 1978″…2/6/12

We’ve all experienced de’javu at some point in our lives. Sometimes, it brings us back to pleasant memories. Other times, like last night, it brings us back to a nightmare that we thought was buried deeply in our brains, never to be brought up again. Then the reality of life sets in, and you realize that some things, good and bad just keep happening, over and over. Such was the case with Super Bowl XLVI last night. Yes, we lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl again last night, for the second time in four years! To make matters worse, this loss was similar to the last two times we lost to N.Y… in the last minute! To me, the Patriots have nothing to hang their heads low about. It was a great game, one that was decided by a few mistakes that changed the outcome of the game. Last night, the better team won.  One thing to keep things in perspective, is that it is just a game afterall. Four years ago, I spent watching the Super Bowl worrying about my father who had just had a major accident and was fighting for his life. Suffice to say, it was nice being with friends and family last night to enjoy the game, despite the outcome. At least the halftime show was entertaining!

Sometimes we experience de’javu with the weather as well. Over the years, we experience storms that remind us of past storms. Living in New England my whole life, I feel fortunate to have experienced some of the biggest storms this region has ever experienced in the last century. There have been a few storms that have been close, but none have measured up to the Great Blizzard of 1978. It was on this date, 34 years ago today, that the famed Blizzard of 1978 began here in Boston. It was a storm of epic proportions. Although I was nine years old, I remember all the details of the storm like it was yesterday. I remember listening to local meteorologists having to keep increasing snow amounts by the hour. Harvey Leonard, in his very first year as a broadcast meteorologist predicted the storm quite well, and has since become a legendary forecaster for the Boston area. As much as I loved the late Don Kent, he was playing catch up,  predicting that this storm will be measured in feet, only after it began.

The morning of February 6 th, 1978, began like many winter mornings do here in New England. It was cloudy and cold, and the forecast was for snow to devlelop during the day, as a “typical” winter storm would affect the area. As the morning wore on, it was becomming more and more evident, that this would not be your typical New England winter storm. I distinctly remember as I made my way to school that morning, that a much bigger storm than usual was on the way. The sky turned very dark, as black low clouds moved in from the ocean. In addition, the wind made a deep whirling noise through the bare trees. The mixture of the smell of the ocean with the cold made you know that snow was coming soon. It wasn’t long after when the flakes started to fly. By noontime, the storm had intensified, and the city was in complete panic mode. Everybody, including schools and municipals were being released early into what now was a raging blizzard! I remember coming home from school that day and seeing the heavy snow beginning to rapidly accumulate. More than the snow, however, was the hurricane force winds that knocked me down to the ground as I made my way home. When I finally made it home, I remember watching my father on our back porch tying down an awning that the wind was threatening to rip off of the house. As we settled in for the night, I remember watching local weathermen increasing snow totals by the hour. As I went to bed that night, I remember the wind blowing so strong, that it literally shook our house, with zero visibility outside my window. The storm raged all night, when I woke up early the next morning, I could not believe my eyes. Our neighborhood had been buried by raging storm overnight, and it was still snowing heavily! In fact, the snow continued to fall heavy all day, with white out condtions and hurricane force winds! Of course, the snow was just one aspect of the storm. The Blizzard fell under a full moon, and the highest astronomical tides of the winter, resulting in catastrophic damage along the coast. Waves were crashing over my friends house in Scituate, Ma. and took his garage out to sea all together. Further inland, blinding snow and hurricane force winds, resulted in people being stranded in their vehicles on Rt. 128, leading to many people tragically perishing in the blizzard.

As the blizzard finally began to abate after nearly two days of pounding the area, I’ll never forget the sight of my sisters walking out into the deep snows. As they made their way out towards the street, they had no idea that they were actually walking on top of cars! Across the Boston area, 30 to 50″ of snow had fallen, whipped up by hurricane force winds, resulted in drifts of up to 15 ft high! The National Gaurd had to be called in to help the city plow the streets and people dig out of their homes. Schools were closed for up to two weeks. To this date, this is the benchmark people use to measure storms in our area.

So any blizzards in our future? Unfortunately for ski resorts, I have to say no. In fact, I don’t see any storms at all for our area for at least another week. I would rate this week a 7 out of 10, not much wintry weather…again! Look for brilliant sunshine and milder weather for the rest of your Monday, with highs near 50! Expect fair weather tonight with lows dropping into the 20’s and lower 30’s. Watch for a few clouds along with some sunshine on Tuesday with a brisk wind. It will be turning colder, with temperatures dropping into the 30’s by days end. Wednesday will feature more sun, along with some clouds late in the day, there will be no precipitation, it will be chilly, but nothing unusual for the date. If you live along the south coast of New England, you may experience a touch of snow early on Thursday, otherwise, fair weather will continue to dominate the region, with highs near 40. Right now, Friday and Saturday will will feature our benign winter weather continuing. It will be noticeably colder on Saturday, with highs only in the 20’s. Sunday looks fair at this point as well, with temperatures rebounding back into the 30’s. We may have to wait until sometime after Valentine’s Day before we might see some snow in our area…and that’s just a maybe the way this winter is going!

Well that’s about it for now! I hope you enjoyed my memories of the Blizzard of ’78! In next week’s blog, I will continue to study the weather charts to see if we have any winter weather on the horizon. For people who love snow and storms, this has been a difficult winter to say the least! Despite the date, major storms have been known to occur well into April around here, so don’t give up just yet! In the meantime, no Blizzard of 78’s are in our future, nor any Super Bowl victory parades, these events are sometimes just once in a lifetime occurrences!

Pete

Unhappy Groundhog’s Day! 1/30/12

It’s that time of the year again! Yes, on Thursday, February 2nd, we will be looking to the guidance of that pesky little rodent to let us know whether there will be six more weeks of winter to go through, or whether spring is coming early this year. I have a news bulletin for you this Groundhog Day. Winter will not extend another six weeks, because winter never came this year! For people who love winter, such as myself, this can be a good thing. Because of the harsh period  of winter last year, I was hearing the whispers from people early last year. Starting in mid-January I heard people talking about when pitcher’s and catcher’s were going to report for spring training, and chit chat about how excited they were about the upcoming baseball season and summertime weather. People were also rooting on the groundhog last year to forecast an early spring, then cheered loudly as the little rodent didn’t see his shadow. This instigated a case of spring fever which spread rapidly across the country last year, ultimately squashing any thoughts of winter out of the region. Don’t get me wrong, I do love the summer here in New England, I just don’t like the transition period from winter to summer, especially when we get jipped of a winter! As many of you may know already, spring is my least favorite season.

So what will our little buck toothed friend say this year? Will winter really be over before it even had a chance to begin? I say, for what it’s worth, that he sees his shadow, allowing this non-winter to limp to the finish line sometime in mid-March. Through the years, I have seen mild winters with little snow. With that being said, I don’t ever recall seeing a warmer winter, or lack of snow so far, as in this winter. I knew it was going to be a less harsh winter, but I wasn’t expecting this either. I found it disheartening when I heard that my friends disassembled the backyard skating rink already here in January. It’s like winter was canceled this year. I know I said this before, but driving around today, I swear the sun looked brighter to me. It had a look of March to it. This makes sense, since last week we just had one of the largest solar storm hit the earth with all kinds of solar radiation from the sun. This is also known as a solar flux. Something like this also happened in the warm winter of 2001-2002. I have not studied this phenomina so much, but I am convinced it does have effects on our climate, especially in the winter. 

So what can we expect for February this year? Normally, February is a very wintry month, with lots of snow and cold weather. Typically, Boston receives about a foot of snow on average. However, there have been big snow years, when we receive between 40 and 50 inches of snow…in one month! It can be a very snowy time of the winter! February is also the month when our average temperatures begin to start to rise very slowly from the depths of January. Look at February much the same period of time as August is in the summer. Of course, this is not a typical winter this year in New England. As much as the computer models are showing a change to more wintry weather here in New England, I’m expecting similar weather that we’ve been having to continue this February. It looks like we are heading towards our eighth straight month with above normal temperatures here in Boston. As for snow, yes there will be some, maybe even a decent storm sometime during the first ten days of the month, otherwise, I’m expecting less than normal snow once again here in Boston. Keeping with the pattern of the winter, I’m expecting some bursts of very warm weather to visit us this February. When will this pattern change? Probably when spring starts!

Now for your outdoor winter weather forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10, some winter weather, but nothing severe. Look for windy weather for the rest of your Monday, with temperatures near normal this afternoon in the mid 30’s. Watch for increasing clouds tonight with a quick burst of snow towards morning. Watch for some slippery roads first thing in the morning with possibly up to 1 inch of snow in some communities. For the rest of your Tuesday, look for alot of clouds and temperatures warming to the 40’s in southern New England, and 30’s up north. Watch for warmer weather to surge back into southern New England on Wednesday once again, with highs in the 50’s! There may be some light rain showers during Wednesday, but no washout is anticipated. Expect a turn to colder weather on Thursday with some sunshine and increasing afternoon clouds, highs will be back in the 30’s. Expect the groundhog to see his shadow this year! The forecast for Thursday night through the weekend is a bit tricky right now. At this point, there may be a small storm passing to our south Thursday night and Friday morning. If this storm passes close enough to us, there may be a period of snow. This does not look like a big storm, with maybe up to 2 inches of accumulation, especially in southern New England.  There may be a similar type storm sometime over the weekend, with temperatures in the 30’s during the day and twenties at night. At this point there is no major storms anticipated for all of New England. If this changes I will update this blog to let you know!

Well that’s about it for now! Next week, the blog will fall on the 34th anniversary of the Blizzard of ’78. I will have a special detailed recollection of what that storm meant to me. I will also see if there are any storms on the horizon for our ski resorts here in New England. In the meantime, I’ll try not to get too upset at the groundhog, you would be in a fowl mood as well if a bunch of people awoke you early in the morning with cameras flashing in your face to ask you what the weather was going to be like! ****GO PATRIOTS****

Pete

January Thaw… 1/23/12

I don’t know about everybody else out there, but I feel emotionally drained after watching all of that football yesterday! Those were two incredible games! I’m just glad that we ended up on the winning side…now onto Indianapolis and a rematch of Super Bowl 42 with the N.Y. Giants! We are certainly living in a golden age  for professional sports here in New England. With the Bruins winning the Stanley Cup last year, I feel fortunate to be living in a region that values their sports teams so much! It will be fun getting together with friends and family to watch the Super Bowl in a normally dreary part of the year for many.

Now onto some weather talk. So what is the January thaw? The January thaw is a winter time phenomina which happens across the northern tier of the United States, especially here in New England. Typically, January is our toughest month of winter, with frequent bitter cold blasts and heavy snowfalls. When a January thaw occurs, winter weather tends to relax, allowing a spell of warm weather and springlike rains to penetrate into northern climate zones. This break generally lasts about three to five days on average. I know what you’re thinking. You’re thinking, Pete, how can we have a January thaw this year if winter hasn’t really even started? Despite several snow events last week, warmer weather is again on the move, and will invade New England yet again for the better part of this week. It’s true every year is different here in New England. Some years, like last winter, we don’t even get a January thaw. If it wasn’t for the brief bout of wintry weather last week, I would say that we’ve been in a permanent thaw for this whole winter! It’s nothing to get concerned  about. So far, it’s just been a mild winter around here. If you don’t like winter weather, I would enjoy the break. If it doesn’t come back by February, you can expect winter to come back with a vengeance by next year!

Yesterday, while watching the football game, I was talking to some friends of mine who are part of a growing tradition here in New England, who construct and maintain their very own backyard ice skating rinks! I remember hearing about people doing this when growing up. Then, for one reason or another, possibly due to a string of mild winters and lack of interest in ice hockey, the tradion seemed to of died off. Not so anymore! A couple of weeks ago, the Boston Globe featured a great story about how this tradition is thriving across the region. Now, anytime you’re depending on the weather for help, you’re dealing with forces sometimes beyond our control. Taking on this project is not for the faint of heart. It’s more for people who have a great desire to bring families together to enjoy outdoor winter time activities. Temperatures and precipitation, and sometimes even wind,  play huge roles in maintaining the ice. Here in coastal eastern Massachusetts, our climate can vary from day to day, week to week, and sometimes season to season. This year, we are having a mild winter, with the weather being influenced by the ocean and southern areas. Other years, however, we can have three solid months of winter cold and snow, with climates typical from more northern areas influencing our area. With all of these different variables, maintaining the ice can lead to many sleepless nights. Of course, the further inland you live away from the ocean, the lower the temperatures are going to be, the better chance you have at a good ice skating season!

Before I get to the forecast, I briefly wanted to talk about a historic winter storm that struck eastern Massachusetts back on January 22, 2005. This blizzard was particularly fierce on the South Shore and over Cape Cod. Around the Boston area, two feet of snow fell, with up to 5 ft drifts. Down the Cape, up to 38″ fell, with hurricane force winds blowing the snow into 10 ft drifts! It was one of the worst blizzards to ever hit the Cape!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity winter forecast. Like the title says, expect mild condtions this week. Winter may make a comeback by next weekend again. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10 on the severity index. The higher the number, the less severe winter weather we are going to have. Watch for thin ice alert for the next three days!!! It has not been cold enough this winter to sustain any activities on ponds or lakes down here in southern New England!!! There already has been one tragedy this past weekend. Do not go on the ice! Look for cloudy weather for the rest of your Monday with temperatures on the rise during the day into the 40’s by late afternoon. Watch for rain to move into the area this evening with warmer temperatures. In fact, we may be close to 50 by tomorrow morning, with rapidly disappearing snow. Tuesday will be a very mild day region wide with some sunshine mixed with clouds. It will be a breezy day under mostly dry conditions. Ski operators and people maintaining rinks will take a big hit with the weather this week. Tuesday night will be dry, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s. Look for mild weather to continue on Wednesday, with sun mixed with clouds, highs will be in the 40’s. Mild weather will continue on Thursday, with increasing clouds, highs will be in the 40’s again. Right now, the weather from Thursday night through Sunday is very difficult to be precise at this point, as the pattern will be trying to change again. There may be some rain turning to wet snow Thursday night into Friday , with a bit colder weather. This does not look like a big storm at this point. Saturday looks fair and seasonable right now. There may be a winter storm on Sunday. A storm will be developing down the coast, if it comes close enough to southern New England, and if there is enough cold air available, it could turn into a wintry type storm. I will keep you posted on this if conditions warrant. If that doesn’t happen, the pattern going into early February is looking more conducive for a significant snowstorm for New England.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will preview what we can expect for February this year. I will also see if there is any significant winter storms on the way for the beginning of February. I will also have a ski and  home made ice skating rink forecast! Just a reminder, you can always e-mail me if you have any questions on the feedback form on my website. In the meantime, enjoy the January Thaw this week, as winter is always lurking close by this time of year!

Pete

A touch of winter? 1/16/12

Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day! Much like JFK, Martin Luther King Jr. had a dream for this country of equality for all races, to strive to be the best we can at whatever we do. Too bad we didn’t get a chance to witness the full potential what these men could have done for our country. Martin Luther King Jr. would have been 83 years old today.

Since the holiday falls in the middle of January, you would expect alot of wintry conditions across the country, including New England. In other years this is true. We typically have a thick snow cover, with the threat of storms or bitterly cold weather nearby. Not this year though. Yes, we finally got a real cold blast to make it into New England this past weekend, where many areas dropped into the single digits around Boston on Saturday night. This is also a very popular weekend for outdoor winter recreational activities such as, skiing, snowmobiling, and ice fishing. Thank goodness  there was a winter storm in the north country last Friday. While a drenching rain fell down here in Boston, 6 to 12 inches of heavy snow fell up in the mountains in New England. This couldn’t of come at a better time, as up to this point, they hadn’t had any snow to speak of! Even areas just inland of Portsmouth N.H. had a plowable snow. In a winter of absurd warm temperatures and snowless weeks, we’ll take what Mother Nature gives us at this point!

While watching the Patriots game Saturday night, many family members asked me if it was going to snow this winter in Boston? They also aked me if this was the beginning of global warming, or a major overall climate change? All valid questions. I’m not sure if I have the exact right answers for any of these questions, but I gave my best explanation for these complicated issues. Although we have had no snow and warm temperatures in Boston this winter, I did point out that areas in coastal Alsaska, such as Valdez and Cordova, they have had 321″ and 175″ of snow so far this winter respectively. Whole homes are being buried, and the National Gaurd had to be called to help these people dig out of their homes! And it’s only January!  Doesn’t this sound familiar? It was just last year when people here in Boston were complaining  that there was no place to put the all the snow! Certainly we didn’t get as much as Alaska, but everything is bigger in Alsaska, even the snowstorms! I believe alot of people have short memories when it comes to the weather around here. I have done extensive research in past climate conditions here in New England, basically over a 120 year period. The result? We have had similar winters like this one in the past! Not many, but it has happened. In fact, I can run off 7 or 8 years that were similar to this one.  This winter is a correction  for the past several snowy winters that we have had. Mother Nature is always in a state of balancing things out. One thing I did notice, is that over the past few years, the pattern seems to be more extreme than before. So rather than having many normal years in a row, we seem to be having either tons of snow, or no snow. Very hot weather, or very cool. Flooding rains, or droughts. Like I said before, it’s the extremes that makes the averages.

So what about the rest of this winter? Is it going to snow this winter? I believe it will. In fact, just like the heading says, there is a touch of winter coming this week! Weather patterns are only now settling into their true winter patterns. No, we aren’t going to get 7 ft of snow, but I do believe it will be more wintry than it has been. The patterns are shifting globally, some computer models are hinting of a very warm February coming, while others are saying, not so fast. High latitude blocking may develop in February, keeping New England colder and somewhat stormier than areas to our south. This colder regime may linger well into our upcoming spring. Look for Boston to be right in the battle zone, with more snow for areas to our north, and rain to our south. In the end, I do believe my winter forecast will average out to be right on target. This means a snowier second half of the winter around here, but because of such a slow start, it will end up being below our seasonal average.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activitiy forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. Some wintry weather, but nothing too severe. Look for sunny weather, along with some high ice crystal cirrus clouds for the rest of your Monday. It will be cold, but not as cold as over the weekend, highs will be in the 20’s up north, to about 32 here in Boston. Look for cloudy skies tonight. If you are going to be out late tonight, be aware of a burst of light snow around or just after midnight. There may be a coating around Boston, and maybe up to an inch or two well west and north of Boston. In addition, there may be some light freezing rain in those areas first thing tomorrow morning… so careful driving! Tuesday will feature milder weather, with warming southwest winds, and periods of showers, some in the morning, then again in the afternoon. It will be milder with highs getting into the 40’s. Watch for clearing skies and colder weather to move into the area tomorrow night, with lows falling back into the 20’s. Wednesday will be a mostly sunny and colder day, with highs in the lower 30’s. It will be cold Wednesday night, with lows in the teens and twenties. Look for increasing clouds on Thursday as the next system approaches, highs will be mainly in the upper 20’s and  low 30’s. Right now, it looks like we have a shot at our first accumulating snow of the winter coming in Thursday night. It does not look like a big storm, however, we could see 1 to 3 inches of snow overnight. Snow showers may linger in eastern Massachusetts Friday morning, otherwise skies may try and brighten in the afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 30’s. Unsettled weather may come back on Saturday with some light snow, most likely snow to the north and rain to the south towards the Cape. Not a big storm, but wintry weather nonetheless! The forecast for Championship Sunday is a bit tricky. At this point, it looks like it will be a bit milder, but with a storm close by to our south with northeast winds, it may be on the cloudy  a bit on the damp side. No big storm are anticipated at this point. Overall, a changeable week, with a little more wintry weather than we’ve had so far! Which isn’t saying much!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will examine the upcoming pattern for the rest of January to see if we have any major storms on the way. I will also talk about a historic blizzard that struck eastern Massachusetts a few years ago. If there are any topics that you would like me to talk about or you have any questions, you can always shoot me an e-mail via the hrappliance feedback form on the website. In the meantime, be prepared for the light touch of winter this week. So far, Mother Nature has been very gentle to us this winter!

Pete

Anything but normal…1/9/12

We are approaching the mid way point of meteorologic winter, and so far, its been nothing remotely close to being normal. I forecasted a milder than normal winter this year, but even I’m surprised at just how extreme it has gotten. So far, we are averaging a whopping 6 degrees above normal for the period from November up until now! There are reports that areas just south of New England that the grass is still growing and that flowers and trees are trying to bloom! As for snow, forget about it! It can’t snow when one, temperatures are constantly in the 40’s and 50’s, and two, there are no storms to produce the snow. And it’s not just here. It appears as if Mother Nature is giving the whole country a pass on winter this year. Places out west that were supposed to get prolific amounts of snow and cold aren’t getting it either. The only area that is getting above normal snow is in New Mexico and west Texas! A very bizarre pattern indeed!

So what can we do about this? Nothing!! If you don’t like the cold and snow, I would suggest you either move to Florida, or just enjoy your day in the sun. Like I have said in the past, it’s the extremes which make the averages. I believe the Mother Nature is just loading up again. It might not be this year, but at some point, the hammer will drop. The atmosphere is always trying to balance things out, so at some point, the scale will have to tip the other way. When you ask? Well after reviewing the latest computer models this morning, I do believe a change is on the way. Not so much for this week, but more so for the second half of January and especially for February and March. No, it’s not going to snow 80″, however I do believe that a much more wintry scenerio is unfolding. This ties in well with my winter forecast saying that this winter will be a back ended winter, with most of our snow coming in February and March. There may even be one good snowstorm before the season changes. This is great news for local ski resorts. A strong second half of the season may salvage to what has been a disasterous ski season so far. If you love the snow and storms as much as I do, New England can sometimes be a very frustrating place to live, we either get slammed with tons of the white stuff, or we wait for the snowflakes to fall like in the old Dunkin Donuts commercial with the snow plow operators anxiously awaiting in their trucks for a snowflake to fall. They should bring back that commercial for this winter!

Now for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, not much wintry weather…again! Remember, the lower the number is, the more severe the winter weather will be for the week. Expect a mixture of clouds and sun for the rest of your Monday, with highs in the lower 40’s, which is still about 7 degrees above normal for the date. You would expect this kind of weather in late November, rather than early January. Look for cloudy weather overnight. If you live south of Boston, don’t be surprised if you see some snow flurries, or even a period of light wet snow after midnight. Some of the computer models were hinting at a weak system clipping the south shore with some light snow. If it does happen, consider yourself lucky to have seen some snow in this winter! On a more serious note, if it does snow a little, please be aware of some slippery road conditions first thing tomorrow morning. We are not used to driving in winter conditions, and it doesn’t take alot of snow to cause an accident! Otherwise, expect clearing skies on Tuesday, with highs again in the mid 40’s. It will be dry and uneventful for Tuesday night, with lows in the 20’s. Watch for sunshine fading behind increasing clouds for your Wednesday. It will continue to be on the mild side, with highs in the lower 40’s. There will be a storm this week. In a normal winter, we would have to prepare for a significant winter storm for Wednesday night and Thursday. However, this winter, there’s just not enough cold air around to support wintry precipitation. With that being said, some computer models have been trending a little colder, especially over the far interior. Since this storm is forecasted to pass east of Boston, you always have to be on gaurd for unexpected things, especially in January. As it stands right now, expect a slug of heavy rain to move through the Boston area Wednesday night into thursday morning with gusty northeast winds. If you live well north and west of Boston, especially over the higher terrain, you may wake up to several inches of wet snow Thursday morning. Thereafter, expect the pattern to be changing as we head into the weekend. I do not expect any 60 degree weather in Boston again for the foreseeable future. Look for windy conditions with falling temperatures on Friday, along with some passing snow showers. If you are going to the Patriots game on Saturday, bundle up! It will be cold with highs in the lower 30’s and lows in the teens by games end. Expect similar weather for Sunday, maybe even a bit colder, with highs in the upper 20’s. It looks mainly dry at this point, however I can’t rule out some scattered snow flurries from time to time.

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will take a look and see at what the rest of January may be like weatherwise, and also look back at some January’s which featured some extreme weather. I will also talk more in depth about this winter and whether it is part of a overall climate change. In the meantime, looking back at how the weather can be one extreme or another, normal doesn’t look that bad afterall! ~GO PATRIOTS!~

Pete

As the days lengthen…1/2/12

Happy New Year! Wishing all of my family, friends & customers a healthy and prosperous 2012! I can’t believe that it’s already 2012! Many times, when talking weather, when the new year comes in, so does a new weather pattern. Not so much this year! Normally, New England experiences bitter cold weather, heavy snowfalls, or some kind of stormy weather around the new year. This year, while at the Patriots game yesterday, people were basking in 55 degree weather under golden sunshine and light winds. Call me crazy, but to me, the sun looks different this winter. It seems brighter and even warmer than a normal winter sun. Even my brother commented on how the angle of the sun looked different yesterday. So what is going on? Has the planetary alignment changed? I don’t believe so. I have seen this look to the sun in other mild winters from the past. What I do believe, is that the increase sunspot activity during this past fall has resulted in an increase in solar radiation here on earth, making it brighter and warmer. This, combined with the ongoing La Nina, has resulted in a non-winter so far here across New England.

So what’s next. Will winter ever show up, or are we skipping this season all together this year? The least amount of snow ever recorded at Logan airport was in the 1936-37 season, when only 9″ was recorded!  Yes, I did forecast below normal snowfall in Boston this year, but I did not predict a snowless winter either!  Some people are telling me that the days are beginning to lengthen already, and that winter is waning. True, the days are lengthening, and it is possible that this will be the winter that wasn’t. However, meteorologists and weather people such as myself no better. We know the old weather saying that has merit, that “when the days lengthen, the cold strengthens”. This is because of the phenomina that I have mentioned on several occasions called latent heating and cooling. In other words, it takes longer for the oceans to cool down in the winter, and longer for them to heat up in the summer than the land masses. So…winter usually doesn’t kick into full gear here in eastern New England until later on in January and especially in February and the first part of March. Looking at the longer range computer models, I do expect more wintery conditions coming, especially in February and march this year.

Before I look to the future with the forecast, I did want to look back  to the year that was, 2011. Yes, the year went out on a quiet note, but that was not the typical weather. The year started out with frequent blizzards in January and early February. In April, the middle of the country suffered through excessive floods, and the worst tornado season ever! This was followed by our own tornado in June, then a blistering heat wave in July. August featured heavy rains with the help of tropical storm Irene which blew through. Rather than normally cooling during the autumn months, temperatures actually warmed compared to the normals, resulting in the warmest autumn on record here in New England, making for a very dull fall foliage season. Keeping with the extreme theme, interior New England experienced one of the most damaging early season snowstorms on record at the end of october. After the storm, the warm autumn continued through November and right through December. This period also featured no snow accumulation. All in all, it will turn out to be one of the warmest and wettest years on record!

What can we expect for January? I do not expect severe winter weather like last year. Expect rapid temperature changes, with some bitter cold weather, puncuated by milder tranquil days. I will keep with theme of the current pattern, and believe January will end up warmer than normal. Boston normally receives about 12″ of snow on average in January, I’m expecting only about half that this January, much less than the 38″ that fell last year! Overall, expect a bit more wintery weather than we had in December, but not even close to what it normally can be around here.

Now for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. I am rating this week a 6 out of 10, some winter weather, but nothing too extreme. Look for partly sunny weather for the rest of your monday, with temperatures in the mid 40’s. It will be turning colder overnight, with lows in the 20’s and 30’s with dry weather. Watch for colder weather for your Tuesday, with highs falling through the 30’sand 20’s by the end of the day. It will be mainly dry, but don’t be surprised if you see a quick flurry. Expect the coldest weather of the season tomorrow night and Wednesday, lows will be in the single digits and low teens, with highs only in the low 20’s with ineffective sunshine on Wednesday. It will be milder on Thursday with more clouds than sun, highs will be around 30 degrees. Expect temperatures to warm further on friday, along with the chance of some furries or light showers, highs will be in the mid to upper 30’s. No big storms expected again for this whole week. Right now, next weekend looks to be on the mild side, with highs in the 40’s, with a mixture of sun and clouds.

Well that’s about it for now! Next week, I will focus more on our ski areas, and see if there are any significant snowstorms coming for them. I will also be looking over the weather maps carefully for our own area to see if we have any snow in our future, after all, it is January! In the meantime, keep watching those days lengthen, eventually, winter will give way to spring…sometime in May!

Pete

A snowless December…12/26/11

What a difference a year makes! Last year on this very date, the Boston area was preparing for a post Christmas blizzard, bringing high winds, coastal flooding, and close to 20″ of wind whipped snow to the area. Yes, that was the start of the winter that was around these parts. This year, the Boston area is on the cusp of having a December with no measurable snowfall recorded at Logan airport. Although unusual, it is not unprecedented. Logan airport averages about 8″ of snow in December, with even more outside of the city. The area was due for a dry month for snow. As mentioned in previous blogs, we’ve had much more than average snowfall in the past four December’s here in Boston. This year, it appears as Boston is going to put up a big fat zero for snow accumulation for the month.

With all that being said, it was a pleasant surprise to see light snow flurries on Christmas morning while staying at my sister and brother in laws house in coastal New Hampshire. Checking in with friends and family, these flurries also occurred in many other places in eastern Massachusetts yesterday morning. Then, while driving back from Massachusetts Christmas night, light rain turned to light snow as soon as we crossed the border into New Hampshire, making for a very festive scene by the time we got home. Not enough for a true white Christmas, but enough to get you in the spirit! What do you want in a snow drought? I’ll take what Mother Nature gives to us at this point! This was not enough snow in Boston to even record a measurement.

So what about the rest of 2011? is it going to go out with an extreme event? I don’t think so. Although very unpredictable, it appears as if we are still stuck in the snow less pattern for the foreseeable future. Every time a storm makes its way towards New England, it brings warm air up from the south and changes it to rain. Computer models keep hinting of a possible major storm in long range, but when push comes to shove, these storms just don’ materialize.  A lot has to do with the lack of blocking up in Greenland this year. Storms come up, but travel west of New England, dragging warm air up along with them, changing any frozen precipitation over to rain. For many people this is good news. For others, such as people who enjoy skiing, snow mobile riding, and other winter activities, not so much. I see this type of pattern continuing for the rest of December, and maybe well into the new year. As mentioned in my winter forecast, I only expect half the normal amount of snow that we usually get around here this winter, and most of that may come during the second half of winter.

Now for your weekly winter outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, not much wintery weather. Expect blustery conditions for the rest of your Monday, with sunny skies and chilly temperatures, highs will be in the lower 40’s. Tonight will feature dry weather under mostly clear skies, lows will be in the 20’s. Watch for increasing clouds on Tuesday, with highs in the 40’s again. Rain will move into the area on Tuesday night with some gusty winds, lows will not go lower than 40. This may begin as a brief mix of snow way up north, but even here expect it to turn to mostly rain. Wednesday will start off with some rain, then watch for clearing skies in the afternoon, with temperatures falling into the 30’s by days end. It will dry Wednesday night, with colder weather moving in, watch for lows in the teens and twenties. It will be a good night for snow making again. Expect colder weather on Thursday under mostly sunny skies. highs will be in the 20’s up north, to 30’s in southern New England. Right now, New Year’s weekend looks a bit unsettled, but no big storms are anticipated. There may be some flurries or light showers New Year’s eve, with highs in the lower 40’s and lows in the lower 30’s, so no bitter cold weather is anticipated! With the cold weather later in the week, ski areas can resume snow making once again, but no major storms are anticipated…bummer!

Well that’s about it for now! Next week, I will have time to review the major weather events in 2011, and also a preview at what we could expect for our weather in January 2012! In the meantime, if you don’t like snow and cold, I hope you enjoyed December 2011, will your luck continue into the new year? Check in next week to find out! Until then, wishing everyone out there a:

~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~HAPPY AND HEALTHY NEW YEAR & THANKS FOR READING~*~*~*~*~**~*~*~*~*~*~

Pete

Green Christmas…12/23/11

I’m sure everyone has heard by now from local media meteorologists that the Christmas storm is not coming after all. I waited to post my update just in case the computer models decided to change their mind. Indeed, it is a gruesome pattern for those looking for snow and wintery conditions. On the flip side, this is good news for people who have to travel for the holidays, state workers, and emergency management teams. With no storm, they can all spend time with families and friends to enjoy the holidays. It’s always nice to have snow around for the holidays, but Mother Nature has made her mind up for this year…Green Christmas for nearly 70% of New England this year! I will blog on my usual time Monday morning. Wishing all my readers and customers a great holiday season!

Pete