Walking in a winter wonderland…12/19/11

Despite what I said last week, come Christmas Day,  some in New England may be doing just what the title says! After one of the warmest autumns on record here in New England, Mother Nature may be turning the tables on us in a big way come this weekend. As I was reviewing the  computer models last night, I was beginning to become very suspicious about the evolution of the weather patterns heading towards Christmas. Not to get too technical about the discussion, but last nights computer models began hinting of a storm developing in the deep south on Christmas Eve, then moving through New England on Christmas Day as possibly a light snow event across the area.  That would of been nice to give a very festive atmosphere to the day. However, in true New England form, the computer models this morning were portraying a much more serious event to unfold here on Christmas Day. If the models are correct, and one of these models is the more reliable European model (which nailed the Halloween storm), a major winter storm could unfold around here with lots of heavy wet snow and strong winds. Obviously, we are still six days away from this event, and the models will flip flop on eventual solutions, so this is not etched in stone just yet. There are a few ingredients still missing in the atmosphere that would give me more confidence in forecasting such a storm. With all that being said, however, wouldn’t it be just like New England, to wait for the winter solstice to arrive, have the warmest autumn that I can ever remember… then to hammer us with a major winter storm on Christmas!

There is no need to panic just yet. I understand the importance of the holiday weekend with travelling and families assembling together to celebrate Christmas together. I will update this blog by either Wednesday or at the latest Thursday to make my final call on this possible winter storm. I will make an early call on what I think might take place in my forecast shortly. Like I said earlier, there are still some pieces still missing from the equation. For one, the NAO that I talk about frequently in the wintertime, also known as The Greenland Block, is still in a positive phase, which usually is not conducive to major snowstorms in the Boston area. However, recent computer models have shown this to be trending down heading towards Christmas. There have been major storms in the past, which have occurred when the NAO is trending negative. Sometimes, when the block is too intense, it forces storms further out to sea, bypassing the Boston area all together. It’s a fine balance of meteorlogical factors to come together. As the week progresses, we will see if this trend continues. If it does, watch out! The combination of a cold high pressure area building north of New England, and just enough cold air draining into the system, could spell a winter storm heading our way!

If this storm does come, it could not come at a better time for our ski resorts here in New England. Thus far, there has been very little natural snow to speak of, and it has been too warm, until just this past week to make snow. You know it’s been warm out because the first time you needed to wear a winter coat was on Saturday, December the 17th! I forecasted a slow start to the ski season, but even I was surprised with the lack of natural snow thus far this season. With school vacation coming up next week, a storm like this would be the best Christmas present the ski areas could receive! There are many businesses and industries that rely on snowfall to make their living. Snowplow operators is a Mother Nature reliant type of business as well. Without snow, they don’t get paid. Businesses in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, rely on Mother Nature to deliver the snow, so the people will come to skiing and snow mobiling and spend money at their resteraunts, shopping centers, and boutique stores. So like many things in life, if the storm comes, some may not be too happy, but others will rejoice!

Now on to your weekly outdoor winter forecast. Look for many rapid changes this week. I will rate this week a 4 out of 10, weighted heavily with the possibility of a storm next weekend. Remember, the lower the number the more severe the winter weather possible. For the rest of your Monday, expect a mix of clouds and some sun. It will be noticebly warmer out, with highs soaring into the low 40’s. A gusty wind will make it feel cooler at times. It will be dry overnight, with lows in the 30’s. A cold front will move through the area late tonight, shifting the wind back around to the northwest. Tuesday will be slightly cooler, with sunshine followed by increasing clouds, highs will be in the upper 30’s. Watch for milder weather on Wednesday, with some showers possible, highs will be in the upper 40’s. Look for mild weather to persist on the first day of winter, highs will be in the 50’s again! Along with the warm temperatures, you can expect some sun along with a gusty southwest wind. For Friday, look  for some showers to move back into the area. Temperatures will begin to cool off during the afternoon, as winds shift into the northeast. If enough moisture is available, the rain may change to some snow overnight with minor accumulations. Now for the Cristmas holiday weekend. Expect a colder day for your Christmas Eve. Right now, it looks to be on the dry side with sunshine fading behind afternoon thickening clouds. Temperatures should hold in the upper 30’s. As for Christmas Day itself, this forecast is subject to change so please check back during the week! Right now, I am going with the idea of a significant nor’easter to affect New England. Expect heavy inland snows, especially if you live in central and southern New Hampshire, and anywhere north and west of Interstate 495. It will be a stormy day regionwide, with gusty northeast winds along the coast. If you live along the coast, expect heavy rain, mixed with snow at times. As the storm pulls east, this may change the mixed precipitation to snow even along the coast with some accumulations.  If you live north of Boston along the coast into New Hampshire and Maine, expect this changeover to occur earlier, with heavy amounts of wet snow possible. Again, this is all preliminary forecasts, I will update this forecast during the week…so check back!

Well that’s about it for now! Needles to say, it may be a very interesting week of weather and forecast challenges to follow! In next week’s blog, I will be checking out what the out the pattern holds for us for the rest of 2011! I will also review the extreme weather of 2011. Please check back for updates this week. In the meantime, for those dreamin’ of a white Christmas, you may have to change your tune to walkin’ in a winter wonderland come Sunday!

~~~~****~~~~MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY HANUKKAH TO ALL~~~~****~~~~

Pete

Dreamin’ of a white Christmas? 12/12/11

It’s that time of the year again, when everybody loves to have some snow around the holiday to get you in the spirit. So here we are, less than two weeks before Christmas, and so far, we’ve had more snow to show for around Halloween than Christmas! So what are the statistical chances of a white Christmas around here? Believe it or not, if you live within 25 miles of the Atlantic Ocean, not great. That’s not to say we don’t get white Christmas’ here in Boston. In fact, we’ve had snow on the ground for the last three around here! However, if you take a look at the long term averages, Boston (downtown), only has a bout a 25% chance of having one inch or more of snow on the ground on Christmas day. Your chances of a white Christmas increases substantially the further inland you live away from the ocean. Worcester, Ma. for example, has about a 60% chance of a white Christmas. Many areas of New Hampshire and Vermont have about a 75% chance. If you want a gaurantee, head north! Caribou, Maine has about a 100% chance of a white Christmas every year!

So what are our chances this year for a white Christmas? Over the weekend my nieces asked me if we are going to have snow for Christmas this year. I hate to be the grinch who took the snow away for the holiday, but at this point, it looks hopeless for snow this year for a good majority of the area. When last year, every storm sysytem that came our way overachieved in it’s capapbility of producing snow, this year is the exact opposite so far! We are not in a conducive pattern for snow, and I don’t see that changing right up through Christmas. We are in a nasty pattern right now if you are looking for snow. Every time a storm heads our way, it brings a surge of warm air from the south and changes it to rain. When the storm moves by, colder air comes back…after the fact. Right now, things don’t look too good for skiers and winter enthusiasts here in New England. It’s not like it was not forecasted, check out my winter forecast for New England back on 11/21/11! With all of this being said, watch out for the winter solstice on December 22 nd. There have been many years, where winter does not kick in around here until we reach the solstice. Why you ask? Well for one, astronomically speaking, this is when winter officially begins, and you know how perfect Mother Nature wants her timetables to be! Meteoroligically speaking, this is when the oceans begin to cool down, and true winter patterns begin to set up shop across the Northern Hemisphere. So for all you snow lovers out there (including myself), don’t give up hope just yet. I did say it would be a back ended winter this year, with more snow later rather than early!

Last week I mentioned about something called the rubber band theory. Again you ask, Pete, what the heck does a rubber band have to do with the weather? Well, nothing really. It’s just a simple example we use to explain the laws of averages. Here in Boston, we are on our 6th straight month of well above normal temperatures. Think of all of the warm weather we’ve been having like the rubber band stretching. Mother Nature likes to balance things out at some point. The further the band stretches out, the likelyhood of it snapping back increases. What all of this means, is enjoy the recent stretch of warm months, at some point, we will have to pay the price with the band snapping back…most likely with a stretch of colder weather.

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to talk a little weather history. I know I have mentioned this storm in the past, but it is worth mentioning again in weather history. Back in 1992, from December 11th to December 13th, New England was battered by one of the most intense nor’easter’s since the Blizzard of 78′. This was a fierce storm, with hurricane force winds, major coastal flooding, and record deep snows. For areas along the coast, it was the high winds and coastal flooding that resulted in significant damage. Across inland areas, especially west of Rt. 128, heavy wet snow fell for two days straight, accumulating to 20 to 30″. In fact, Worcester got 32″, and some elevated locations, such as Mt. Wachusett in Princeton, received an astonishing 48″ of snow! Here in Boston, a soaking rain, turned into a wind driven plastering wet snowstorm, with 9″ falling at Logan airport, and up to a foot of snow across inland portions of the city. What was also incredible about this storm, was the amount of precipitation it had. Many areas received between 5 and 7″ of water. This is almost uprecendented for winter storms in New England, especially when many areas had this fall as snow!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10. The lower the number, the more severe the winter weather is for the week. Look for sunny, tranquil weather for the rest of today and tomorrow. It will be milder, with highs between 45 and 50 degrees. Expect chilly temperatures overnight, with lows mainly in the 20’s in suburbia, and mid 30’s across urban areas. Watch for temperatures to be a bit cooler on Wednesday, with highs between 38 and 45 degrees. With the wind blowing in from the northeast, there may be some clouds and flurries or sprinkles along the coast early, otherwise, expect some sun, along with some increasing clouds later in the day. Expect some areas of showers on Thursday and Thursday night, with milder weather, highs will be near 50 again. Watch for windy weather on Friday, with temperatures falling through 40’s during the day. Friday night will be colder with lows in the 20’s. Right now, next weekend looks mainly dry on Saturday, with chilly temperatures, mainly in the upper 30’s. There may be some very light snow showers or flurries on Sunday, but nothing to get too excited about, highs will be in the mid 30’s. We may warm up all over again at the beginning of next week. As for the ski forecast, it will be somewhat colder this week, so ski resorts can continue to make snow, especially come next weekend. No major snowstorms for this week.

Well that’s about it for now. Next week, I will have your all important Christmas week forecast and the forecast for Christmas day. I will also see if there is any snow in the future for the ski resorts here in New England. In the meantime, keep dreaming of that white Christmas, because we all know, that dreams do come true sometimes!

Pete

Snow…for some 12/7/11

Just wanted to give everyone a quick update on the impending snowfall for parts of the area tonight. After reviewing the latest computer models, it does appear as if there will be a snowfall overnight for some. In keeping with the theme of this winter, it appears as if the heaviest snowfall will fall across the interior of New England. When looking back to my forecast put out on Monday, I had the right idea that a storm was coming. However, without any Greenland Block in place, the storm is actually going to come alot closer to the coast than previously thought. Some cold air will bleed into the system, but not enough to make it a major storm along the coast.

With all of this in mind, here is what I’m thinking. Look for rain to continue heavy at times into tonight. If you live in western Massachusetts, central and southwest New Hampshire, expect the rain to quickly turn to heavy wet snow, say, after 10 p.m.  This snow will rapidly accumulate 4 to 8,” especially in higher elevations overnight. Needless to say, if you are travelling across the interior of New England tonight, particularly well north and west of Interstate 495 tonight, expect difficult conditions to develop. On the flip side, this is great news for northern ski areas, where they can expect a quick 6 to 10 inches of snow, especially across the higher terrain. For people who live inside of Rt. 495 and up along the New Hampshire coast into Maine, you can expect a quick changeover to wet snow with 1 to perhaps as much as 3 inches of snow. Just enough to get you in the holiday spirit. Anyone living inside of Rt. 128, which includes the city of Boston, the north and south shores, I’m only expecting a quick coating of snow at the tail end of the storm. With no upstream blocking, this storm will exit very quickly Thursday morning, so by 9 a.m. the sun will be back out across the area! Expect briefly gusty winds on the backside of the storm out of the northwest during the morning, settling down during the afternoon. Looking ahead, I’m still expecting a dry weekend, with mostly sunny weather and temperatures in the upper 30’s on Saturday, and lower 40’s on Sunday. A nice weekend for skiing on the fresh snow?

That’s about it for now. One quick note. Despite this not being a major storm, for many across the interior, winter conditions will develop on the roads overnight, so slow down! Even along the coast, it only takes a little snow to make it slippery. I will be posting at my usual time on Monday morning with a review of the storm, and to see if we have any more snow chances coming! Have a great weekend!

Pete

Winter lurking…12/5/11

Living here in New England my whole life, I have seen almost every type of weather pattern possible, none however, quite like this past fall. The numbers are in, and I have a bit of information that would please people who both enjoy snow and warm weather! Autumn 2011 will go down as both the warmest fall on record, and also the snowiest! In addition, it will also rank as the 2nd warmest November on record. It does seem like it never happened, but the pre- Halloween snowstorm broke many records across the interior of New England for deepest snows so early in the season. Since then, it’s been a blow torch across the region, with an extended period of Indian Summer like we’ve never seen before. Yes, we’re living in extreme weather patterns, so the big question remains, what’s next?

Speaking of extreme, I visited my sister and brother in law this past weekend up in the beautiful state of New Hampshire. Yesterday, we went out to a local Christmas tree farm to cut a fresh tree. First, I mentioned to them that it was 30 degrees warmer this year than it was last year! In addition, it’s not too many years when you can be out in the fields of a New Hampshire farm and not see a speck of snow in December! When we got home, we decided to watch a movie. I think they felt bad for me with all of the tranquil weather we’ve been having of late, so they picked the movie The Day After Tomorrow. Don’t know if you have ever seen this movie, but if you are interested in the weather, climate change, ice ages, and extreme weather events, like myself, I would highly recommend it! After the movie, my sister asked me if such an event can happen in real life. The quick answer to this question is most likely no, at least not the way Hollywood made it out to be. True, we have had ice ages and warming in the past. In fact, we are in a warming period from our last ice age right now! In geologic time, 50 years is like a second! With all of that being said, it has been studied that major climatic shifts have occurred in as little as a few decades and not centuries. As I have said before, our climate and and weather system is based on a fine balance of degrees and angles. If this system were to be disrupted suddenly, by several volcanoes erupting, or a slight change of the amount of solar radiation we receive from the sun, the consequences would be catastrophic. So where are we now? With the ocean temperatures cooling, and sun spot activity going into a dormant phase in a couple of years, I believe the earth will begin a natural cooling cycle, to where we were back in the 60’s and 70’s. We did not end up finding the perfect tree yesterday, but there is always next weekend!

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to let you know about a major snowstorm that hit the Boston area in weather history. Back on December 5th-7th, 2003, a long duration two day snowstorm crippled the Boston area with record amounts of snow. Like many other major storms, this storm was poorly forecasted across the area. Forecasts of snow turning to rain, or the storm going out to sea were quickly transformed into measuring the snow in feet when all was said and done. In fact, many areas surrounding Boston were blasted with 2 and in some cases 3 feet of snow! This was the snow bowl game down in Foxborough, Ma. where the Patriots still played their game against the Dolphins of Miami. It was an amazing sight, with the area receiving 30″ of snow, people literally had to climb over huge snowbanks to get into the stadium! This storm was followed by one of the coldest January’s on record, with parts of Boston Harbor freezing over!

Now onto the forecast. This week, I am changing the good weather rating system to the winter severity index. Remember, unlike the summer index, the lower the number for the winter index, the more severe the weather will be. The rating for this week will be a 5 out of 10. Like the title says, winter weather is lurking this week. For those who thought winter is not coming this year, be prepared for a shock this week! Not so much for the beginning of the week! Look for warm conditions for December, for both today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be near 60 both days, with today featuring a mix of sun and clouds, and tomorrow will bring rain showers during the day and into the night. Look for mild conditions for tonight, with the furnaces not likely clicking on. Later Tuesday night, a cold front will slip through New England. If there is any left over moisture, it may change to some light snow well north and west of Boston, most likely into New Hampshire. Wednesday may start off with some sun, but clouds will be on the increase. It will be noticeably colder, with highs near 50. This is when things get interesting. Like the Halloween storm, the American based model GFS, is sending a storm out to sea on Thursday. However, the European model, is developing a potent nor’easter type of a storm, which lashes eastern Massachusetts with several inches of wet snow. Right now, I’m siding with the European model. Expect rain to move up into the area Wednesday night with winds increasing out of the northeast. Watch for a quick changeover from rain to wet snow during Thursday morning, with wintry driving conditions developing across the Boston area. This will not be a major storm, just enough to remind everyone that winter is here, and will make its presence known. I’m expecting up to a few inches of wet snow, especially just inland from the coast, towards the southwest suburbs of Boston. I’m not sure just yet if this storm will extend into southern New Hampshire or not, but I will update this blog if conditions warrant. Look for blustery, colder conditions to settle in for the upcoming weekend, with temperatures in the 30’s and low 40’s. Conditions should be mostly dry after Thursday. With the colder weather approaching, watch for New England ski conditions to begin to improve. Looking ahead, I do see a more wintry pattern settling into especially northern New England heading up to Christmas, so this is good news for skiers!

Well that’s about for now! In next week’s blog, I will get a chance to review the maps to see if we have any major storms, or extreme weather heading our way as we move towards Christmas…so check back! I also would like to talk to you about the rubber band theory in the weather (hint, it’s been so warm for so long now!). I will also have a more in detailed forecast on hopefully will be improving ski conditions. In the meantime, be prepared for some rapid changes this week, as winter finally comes to New England!

Pete

A November to remember! 11/28/11

You know it’s been a warm November when yesterday, while enjoying the mild weather, I heard lawn mowers actually mowing grass, here at the end of November! Normally, the mowing season ends around Halloween in the Boston area. But nothing seems normal around here in the weather department these days! Yes, it’s been warm. In fact, this November may go down as the second warmest on record here in Boston, and the warmest ever on record in Worcester! The warmest November on record was was back in 1975. It’s hard to believe a November warmer than this one! I can’t remember a November with as many days with temperatures in the 60’s as this one. I actually saw some green buds beginning to try and bloom on a tree that had shed its leaves.

Yesterday, I went to watch my nephew play ice hockey at a rink over in South Boston. It just so happened that the rink was right on the water over by Castle Island. With the weather being so beautiful, everybody was out walking their dogs, jogging, or just taking a stroll along the water. If you havn’t been over to that part of the city in a while, I would recommend taking a drive over there on a nice day to enjoy the scenery. It’s hard to believe that a month ago, interior New England was hit by one of the most severe winter storms in recent memory. From blizzards to start out the year, tornados in June, blistering heat in July, tropical storm  flooding rains in August and September, to a early season nor’easter in October, this year will go down as one of the most extremes in weather history here in New England!

So what about December? Can we expect the extreme weather of 2011 to finish with a bang in December? Despite November turning out to be such a tranquil month, you can say it had its own extreme weather with the record warm temperatures for the month. In fact, this year as a whole, may go down as one of the warmest on record as well! Will the unusual warmth continue into December? Remember, December 1st is the beginning of meteorological winter. Typically, this is when the snow season kicks into high gear around here in New England. On average, Boston’s Logan airport can expect to receive about 8″ of snow in December, with more to the north and west of the city. Looking back, we’ve certainly have had a surpluss in the snow department the last several December’s. This year, in keeping with my winter forecast theme, I’m expecting a trend back to more normal temperatures, if not a bit colder than normal, during December. Of course, that’s what I thought was going to happen in November, and we know how that turned out! Despite the colder temperatures, I’m expecting less than normal snow especially here in eastern Massachusetts. So we may be only dreaming of a white Christmas this year! In the interior, it may be just cold enough to support some snow events. This will be good news for the ski areas in New England, who may have to scrap and fight for anything they can get this year! It’s typical in La Nina winters for cold and snow to visit New England early on in the season, but this will not be a typical year. This year, the La Nina pattern settled in early, keeping us on the warm and dry side of late. I expect most of our snow to arrive later in the winter this year, when the La Nina begins to diminish. I will monitor this closely as we move into the winter months.

Before I get to my forecast, I did want to talk a little weather history. I know it was a long time ago, but it is a storm that was well documented in New England weather history. Back on November 26 and 27th, 1898, a fierce winter storm known as the Portland Gale, lashed eastern New England with true blizzard conditions, hurricane force winds and bitterly cold temperatures. In fact, 1 to 2 feet of snow accumulated from Boston, Ma. to Portland, Maine. Aside from the snow, the worst of the storm occurred at sea. The ill fated SS Portland Steamship left Boston Harbor to head up to Portland, before the storm.  The storm intensified so rapidly, catching the crew off gaurd. All 192 people on the ship perished as the ferocious storm sank the vessel at sea. Overall, 400 people died in this early season winter storm. With today’s technology, we would most likely avoid such a catastrophic outcome.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. With the warm weather continuing, I will wait until next week to change the format to the winter weather severity index. In fact, I am going to rate this week another 7 out of 10…again! Look for balmy warm breezes for the rest of your Monday, with sunshine mixed with some clouds, highs will reach into the mid 60’s across the area! Tonight will feature mild conditions, with clouds on the increase, and temperatures not falling below 50. Look for mild weather to continue for your Tuesday, with cloudy weather with an increase chance of rain showers during the afternoon, highs will be close to 60. Watch for some heavy rain showers to move through our area Tuesday night. It will continue to be mild, so no chance of any frozen precipitation with this event. Expect some early morning showers on Wednesday morning, followed by some afternoon sunshine. It will turn breezy, with winds shifting from the soutwest to the northwest. Bring a jacket with you to work, because when you leave, there will be a bit of a bite to the air as you come home. Will this be the last warm surge of the year? It’s possible, as we welcome December 1st, temperatures will be at more seasonal levels. Look for dry weather to be the theme from Thursday through Sunday, with temperatures mainly in the upper 40’s, and lows in the 20’s and low 30’s. By the way, Boston finally had a freeze, on November 23rd, Logan dipped to 31 degrees. This is a about three weeks behind the average.

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will begin to focus in more on what to expect for the month of December weatherwise. I will also have my first ski report of the season! I will also let you know if  we have any more extreme weather events on the horizon before we finish the year! In the meantime, there is an old saying around here, it goes like this: what happens in November the winter will remember. Some people use this for December, I like to use November. Come April, let’s see if this is true!

Pete

Winter 2011-12…Less harsh! 11/21/11

As you may know, I love to talk about and study the weather. With the benefit of the internet these days, I get to read alot of articles and study new information about our ever changing climate. In addition, I belong to several websites where I get information from some of the best,  expert meteorologists in the world. Living here in New England, we are also blessed to have some of the best local meteorologists in the country. Why? Because this is the most challenging region in the country to forecast the weather! Many of our local meteorologists do a tremendous job in forecasting a very complicated region. Why wouldn’t you want to be in a career somewhere that challenges you to get better everyday, and keeps you on your toes? Growing up my whole life here in New England, I feel fortunate that I get to experience all of this different kinds of weather everyday, right in my own backyard!

So what about the upcoming winter here in New England? Yes, it’s that time of year again to give my best educated guess at what the winter may bring us this year. As I have said before, getting the forecast right for a few days can be an adventure somtimes, never mind for a whole season! Over the years, scientists have made great advancements in meteorology. Yet, despite this, Mother Nature always has the last say in how things work out. This is why I like to use a combination of modern technology and the understanding of my natural surroundings to formulate my forecast. For the technology part, I like to look at teleconnections around the world, such as ocean temperatures, snow cover, jet stream winds, and temperature and precipitation patterns. Like I have said before, the driving force in our weather is our ocean temperatures and the sun. Currently, we are in a La Nina,(opposite of El Nino) or cold water phase in the Pacific Ocean. Typically, La Nina does not influence New England winter weather one way or the other. If anything, it puts us in a highly variable spot, with rapidly changing weather conditions. Our weather is more influenced by a phenomina called the North Atlantic Oscillation, also known as the Greenland Block. The Greenland Block is when a strong area of high pressure builds over Greenland, surpressing the jet stream south of New England. When this occurs, storms form to the south of New England, keeping eastern New England on the cold side of the storms, often delivering heavy snows and strong northeast winds. Last year, a very strong Greenland Block unexpectedly developed during December and locked in for six weeks. This combined with a strong La Nina brought a six week stretch of severe winter weather to eastern New England.

After studying all of the science behind the weather, I like to plug in all of the natural conditions in my area to come up with my forecast. I love to study the November temperature profiles at Boston’s Logan airport to see how much snow we are going to get for the upcoming winter. Recent research has proven that a November with temperatures of 2 degrees above normal or higher has shown the following winter to have much less than normal snowfall (normal is 42″ at the airport). This November, temperatures are running nearly 5 degrees above the average so far! In addition, Boston still has not reached 32 degrees yet, which is now 3 weeks behind schedule. I believe there is definitley a correlation between fall temperatures and heavy snowfalls in Boston for the upcoming winter. This may not be true in other parts of the country, but it is for Boston! I believe the recent increase in sun spot activity has altered the jet stream, making it a abnormally warm fall here in New England. In addition to temperature profiles, I also look at volcanic activity, number of frosts in November, how thick the fog is during October, geese flying south, and of course, squirrels collecting acorns! By the way, we’ve had one of the lowest crops of acorns across New England this fall!

So putting all of this together, this is what I believe will occur this winter across New England. If you live in the Boston area, you would normally expect to receive between 40 and 60 inches of snow. This year, I am expecting between 20 and 40 inches. If you live south of Boston towards the Cape, you would normally expect between 20 and 40 inches. This year, I am expecting between 10 and 20 inches. Some of this will come in December, however, I believe after an abnormally warm January, the bulk of this snow will come during February and March. This forecast holds true, especially if you live within 20 miles of the coast in all of New England. Yes, I am expecting about half of what you would normally expect along the coast. So, if you normally receive between 50 and 70 inches along the coast north of Boston, I would expect more like 30 to 50 inches. For people who live in the interior of New England, with the benefit of the October snowstorm, this may end up being a winter with close to average snowfall and temperatures, somewhere between 60 and 80 inches. For ski areas, I expect a slow start to the season, with things improving towards the second half of the season. I am expecting alot of mixed precipitation events, going over to rain along the coast this year. Of course, this year more than any other year, there still seems to be alot of wildcards on the table. There still is a chance, if the blocking occurs at some point in the winter, that one major storm could occur to send totals closer to average along the coast. in addition, I am expecting the La Nina to fade during the second part of the winter, thus allowing colder systems to affect coastal areas. It’s not like where not going to have winter, it’s just not going to be as severe as last year! Normally, with such a warm November, I wouldn’t even be as generous as I am with snowfall. However, with other conditions which may play a roll during the upcoming winter, I increased some of the snowfall amounts accordingly. There are always going to be surprises, so let’s see how I do!

Now for your holiday forecast. Next week I will switch to the weekly winter severity index. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. What a month it has been! Look for cooler weather today, with clouds mixed with some sun. It will be a dry day and a dry night. If you are going to the Patriots game tonight, expect dry weather and chilly conditions, with temperatures falling into the 30’s during the game. Expect some sun for your Tuesday, however, watch for increasing clouds during the day making for cloudy conditions at sunset. Expect rain to begin first thing Wednesday morning for the busiest travel day of the year. Yes, it’s going to be a nor’easter type of a storm, with heavy rain during the day and gusty northeast winds. It will also be on the cold side, with highs in the upper 40’s to perhaps low 50’s around Boston, warmer towards the Cape, colder to the north. This will be quite a switch to what we’ve been used to this November. If the precipitation lingers into Wednesday night, there may be a brief switch to some wet snow overnight, especially over the higher terrain. Right now, it does not look like it will accumulate much, but if you are travelling, be aware of possibly some wintery conditions, especially inland. As for Thanksgiving Day, expect cloudy and windy weather during the morning, with possibly some light showers or flurries during the morning. It should turn partly sunny during the afternoon. It will be colder than what we’ve been used to, but just a little below normal for the day, with highs in the mid 40’s. After the storm moves by us, expect a return to what we’ve been used to this November next weekend. Look for sunny weather Friday through Sunday, with a warming trend! Look for temperatures in the 50’s Friday, close to 60 Saturday, and in the 60’s again on Sunday…amazing!!

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will take a look to see just how long our incredible warm autumn may continue for! I will also preview what we might expect for December. In the meantime, enjoy time spent with family and friends this Thanksgiving Day.  Whether you have turkey on Thanksgiving or not, if my winter forecast turns out wrong, you’re at least gauranteed a turkey of a forecast!   ~ HAPPY THANKSGIVING & THANK YOU FOR READING!~

Pete

Autumn warmth continues…11/14/11

It’s been a very strange fall so far, would you agree? As I walked out the door this morning, I swear it felt more like mid-May rather than mid-November. I feel like we should be looking forward to Memorial Day rather than Thanksgiving. Maybe the radio stations should be planning the Memorial Day top 500 songs, rather than starting to play Christmas music… yes, oldies 103 has already started belting out the Christmas music, almost two weeks before Thanksgiving! Yet, there has been alot of firsts this fall as well. I can’t ever recall the leaves hanging on the trees so late in the season as this year. In fact, if you didn’t notice, peak foliage finally moved through the Boston area just last week! A full two or three weeks behind schedule. Boston’s Logan airport still has not recorded a 32 degree reading. I explained last week the possible implications of this for our areas winter snowfall totals. Speaking of snow, we’ve had that too! I said this earlier, but I believe that the October nor’easter may have been the largest snowstorm for the whole winter for people who live in the interior of New England! For many, this is great news! However, for others who depend on the snow for winter outdoor activities, not so much. I’m not throwing in the towel just yet, but right now, it doesn’t look too good for those who love cold weather and snow. I will have my final say about this subject in my official 2011-2012 winter forecast, which will be published one week from today.

So why so warm lately? Not that I hear alot of people complaining! I just find it interesting that as the season is supposed to be getting cooler, we seem to be getting warmer! In fact, Boston has been running above normal each and every month since this past July. It’s hard to pin point it on any single thing, but I believe alot has to do with the the current ocean temperatures, and sun spot cycles. The weather is in a constant state of balance. In fact, as we bask in the warmth here in the northeast, areas out in the western part of the country have plunged into mid winter conditions. Alaska experienced one of its most ferocious winter storms in history last week, with some calling it a winter hurricane. Seattle, Washington may see snow by the end of this week, Colorado already has had several blizzards, and San Diego, Ca. was soaked with 2″ of rain the other day! Currently, we are in a La Nina pattern. This is the opposite of El Nino, or warming of ocean water in the south Pacific Ocean. La Nina is the cold water phase,and we are in the second year of this current cycle. Just like no two winters are exactly similar, no two La Ninas are not the same either. That’s why, this upcoming winter will not be the same as last winter. Last winter, we had another phenomina called the NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation, also known as the Greenland Block, work in conjunction with the La Nina to deliver us a short but severe period of winter weather last year. Will the NAO show up again this year? I believe this will be the key whether we see any significant winter weather in eastern New England this winter. 

Another wild card in this melting pot of variabilities we call the weather, is the sudden increase in sun spot activity. This science has been studied for centuries, however , the relationship between sun spots and the weather has only been recently studied as a factor and our climate. Currently, we are moving into a solar sunspot cycle maximum, expecting to peak sometime in 2013. This cycle is not going to be as big as the one we had ten years ago, and is then expected to crash to a record low after that. As I have said before, I believe the sun and the ocean are the catalysts in controlling our climate. With this being said, the maximum sunspot cycle back in the winter of 2001-2002, resulted in a solar flux, changing our jet stream, resulting in one of the mildest winters ever recorded here in New England. One by product of the increase sun spot activity is the appearance of the Northern Lights. If we get any clear skies this week, and you are away from city lights, look to the north and see if you see this phenomina! Is the increase in sun spots resulting in our recent warm autumn? Check in next week for my winter forecast and see what I think about that!

Now for your outdoor weekly activity forecast. I will give this week a 7 out of 10. Not bad again for the middle of November! Look for warm conditions for the rest of your Monday with highs in the middle to upper 60’s! Look for skies to turn mostly coudy during the afternoon, but there will be some splashes of sun. Expect mostly cloudy skies overnight, it still will be balmy, with lows in the 50’s. Tuesday will feature sunshine mixed with clouds. It will be warm and breezy again, with highs once again in the mid to upper 60’s! Clouds will thicken later in the day, and watch for some showers to move into the region tomorrow night, with lows in the lower 50’s. Wednesday will be a transition day, with showers throughout the day, it will be cooler, with highs mainly in the 50’s. Look for cooler and drier weather for thursday, with highs only in the 40’s. Will Logan airport fall to 32 degrees on Thursday night? There is a chance. Friday will feature sunny weather, and temperatures around 50. At this point, look for temperatures to begin to warm up again next weekend, with sunny, dry weather on Saturday, highs will be in the mid 50’s, temperatures may warm into the low 60’s again by next Sunday, with at this point, looking  like dry conditions, with some clouds increasing.

Well that’s about it for now. In next weeks blog, I will try to pull all of this together and present my 2011-2012 winter forecast for New England. I will also have your all important Thanksgiving holiday forecast… Thanksgiving already! In the meantime, will the autumn warmth transition into winter warmth? Check in next week to find out!

Pete

Weather bliss…11/7/11

Our remarkable warm autumn continues this week as yet another taste of Indian Summer will be overwhelming the region. I will let you know just how warm it’s going to get in my forecast shortly. The above normal stretch is taking its toll on our typically colorful time of the year. Despite the recent frosty nights and wintery weather, Logan airport still has not had a freeze at 32 degrees. Actually, Logan airport averages its first 32 degree temperature on this date, November 7 th. Of course, everywhere else has recorded their first freeze already, even on the Cape! You may say, Pete, why is this so important? Why should I care whether Boston’s Logan airport has had their first freeze or not? Well, for many, it isn’t important. However, to meteorologists, climatologists, and weather enthusiasts such as myself, such numbers are critical for determining the overall climate conditions for our region, and possibly even for the upcoming winter. After some extensive research, it does appear as if the date of the first freeze, and the overall average November temperature recorded at Logan airport, does have a correlation with how much snowfall we can expect form the upcoming winter. It’ true, two years ago, our first freeze was delayed until December 9th, and November temperatures averaged 6 degrees above normal. The result? We had well below average snowfall that year. Last year, the freeze came right about this time of the year, and November’s temperatures finished .1 degree below average. The result? Last year Boston had double the annual snowfall! You may say it’s random, but I say there is evidence to prove otherwise!

Now that the freak October nor’easter is behind us (well, for most of us), people have been asking me whether this storm will have any bearing for the upcoming winter. The short answer to this question is no. If anything, studies in the past has shown snowfalls in October usually tip the upcoming winter towards a mild one! This storm was an anomaly. With that being said, it’s not like it hasn’t happened in the past. Looking back in weather history, New England has had many early season heavy snowfalls. This one was different because it extended well to our southwest from West Virginia, all the way up to Maine!  Was it global warming…no! The earth’s climate is controlled by the sun and the ocean temperatures. Currently, we are in a La Nina, or cold phase in the Pacific Ocean. This phenomina typically brings cold weather to the Pacific northwest and mild and dry conditions to the southeast states. Other condtions such as the Greenland Block, or North Atlantic Oscillation, govern the weather here in New England during the winter months. It seems when La Nina is dominant, warmer, drier weather extends up the east coast into Boston. However, when the Greenland Block gets involved, the two can combine to bring us severe winter weather, like what happened last year. Other factors that control our climate is volcanic activity,  sunspot cycles, and sea ice coverage to name a few.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week an 8 out of 10. Not bad for the second week of November! Expect mostly sunny weather for Today through Wednesday. There may be some increasing high clouds on Wednesday afternoon. The big story will be the temperatures. Look for highs to reach the low 60’s today, and possibly close to 70 tomorrow! There may be a weak seabreeze on Wednesday, which may knock the coast down back into the low 60’s, still above normal. Nights will be fair and mild, with lows in the 30’s in rural areas,  40’s in urban centers. There will be a storm on Thursday. Expect a low pressure area rushing up the coast to combine with a cold front coming in from the west to reult in a rainy day, with some heavy downpours possible. The rain may continue into Thursday night, and possibly some left over showers early on Friday. This is unfortunate, because the clouds may block our view of the full Beaver moon Thursday night. Otherwise, expect clearing skies and windy conditions on Friday, temperatures will be much cooler with highs in the 40’s and low 50’s. It will feel cooler with the wind. Right now, next weekend looks similar to this weekend, with sunny skies and crisp temperatures on Saturday, highs in the 40s, and lows in the 20’s to lower 30’s. After a cold start, watch for moderating temperatures with more sunshine for Sunday afternoon, with highs in the upper 50’s.

Well that’s about it for now. In next weeks blog, I will be reviewing the overall pattern to see if we have any signs of real winter coming. I will also offer more clues as to what I think this winter may bring us. Don’t forget, my official forecast will be published on November 21 st. In the meantime, enjoy the upcoming taste of Indian Summer this week, I have a feeling the extreme weather of 2011 may not be done with us yet!

Pete

Halloween trick! 10/31/11

Happy Halloween everyone! I’m sure this is going to be a Halloween that nobody forgets in many areas of New England! The October nor’easter was one for the record books, and may be a once in a lifetime event for many of us. After reviewing previous posts, I think my forecast worked out fairly well considering this was such a complex event. Yes, I was a little overdone with snowfall amounts in the Rt 128 and Boston area, but I was quite a bit underdone on accumulations for areas in the central and western part of the state. Who would of thought that up to two feet of snow was going to fall in several locations in central Massachusetts! In fact, the most snow in the state fell in a town located in the Berkshires called Peru, where an astonishing 32″of snow fell! Records were also smashed in Worcester, Ma., Hartford, Conn. New York, N.Y., and many other areas of the northeast. Even closer to the coast, there were very impressive snowfall amounts for October standards, ranging from 2 to 6 inches depending on where you live. I measured 3″ of very heavy water logged snow here at my house in West Roxbury. Logan airport, being right on the water measured 1″ of snow, still impressive for October. The further inland you live away from the ocean the more snow you received. Add elevation to your location, and you were looking at snow depths that would of been impressive for a storm in January, let alone October!

With all of the heavy wet snow clinging to trees and leaves, the warnings for power outages and tree damage was warranted. People who live inside of Rt 128 and areas along the north and south shores were very fortunate with this storm. It seemed like 3″ was the breaking point that trees could handle. Any location which received more than three inches suffered tree damage and power outages. During the peek of the storm close to 1 million people were without power here in Massachusetts. Due to the unusually warm fall so far, ninety percent of the leaves were still on the trees, adding to the weight. Due to all of the power outages and dangerous conditions, many towns have postponed Halloween until the end of this week. That’s the cruelest trick of all thrown by Mother Nature!

Before I move on from the storm, I did want to vent a little frustration this morning. As I have said before, I am not a meteorologist, nor do I consider myself an expert in the field. However, looking back to last week, I have to ask myself, what were they thinking?? This was a serious storm, with serious implications, that adversely affected millions of people, even a life threatening storm in some areas. In the age of computer models, too many meteorologists do not study ALL of the data carefully enough, or they don’t want to hear any other opinions from other people, because they follow only one computer model, and to them, that’s good enough. It’s a very complex field to be involved in, one that requires an understanding a broad knowledge of many different subjects such as nature, geography, climate, just to name a few, not looking at just one computer model and putting your eggs into one basket. As far as I could tell, only channel fives Harvey Leonard kept a very close eye on the weekend storm, and always left the option open for the storm, even though some of the U.S. generated models had the storm going out to sea. It wasn’t until two days (some cases one day) before the event, when all the other guys jumped on board with the storm. But the person who really stuck his neck out before anybody else, was WeatherBell Analytics Joe   Bastardi. Bastardi called for a widespread, dangerous early season nor’easter complete with maps and unprecedented snowfall predictions for areas that normally don’t see snow in October. How does he do it?  Well, for one thing, he has guts! He’s not afraid to make a forecast and stick with it, right or wrong. He also has an uncanny understanding of these fickle computer models, often going with his knowledge of the overall pattern, before relying on one model for his forecast. With a long winter ahead of us, I will be relying on the knowledge of Bastardi, as well as many other tools to formulate my forecasts!

Briefly, before I get to the forecast, I quickly wanted to review the month of October, and look ahead to November. After a near record warm month of October, the month ended only in a New England way, with a record breaking snowstorm! It was also a very wet month, with many areas receiving close to 6″ of precipitation. With the unusually warm and wet conditions, the fall foliage was non-existant. Now with many areas beeing lashed with snow and  temperatures below freezing last night, I expect many leaves just to fall off the trees, even if they are still green… a very unusual fall indeed. Will the extreme weather continue into November? November is a true transition month from fall to winter. I believe there will be a tranquil period to start out the month, however,  the last two weeks of the month will feature more stormy weather, with above normal precipitation once again. Temperatures look to oscilate from mild periods to colder ones, ending up near average in the end. November averages about 1.5″ of snow at Logan airport. This amount increases if you live to the north and west of Rt 128 and into New Hampshire. There has not been any significant snow measured at Logan airport for several years during November. In fact, the last snowstorm in Boston during November, was back in 2004. I do believe we see some snow during the last two weeks of the month this year, possibly around Thanksgiving? Temperatures continue their downward trend, starting in the upper 50’s on the first, but falling to the upper 40’s by months end.

Now onto your weekly forecast. Look for a break in the wild weather , with mainly quiet weather this week. I will give this week a 7 out of 10. Expect some hazy sun through high clouds for the rest of your Halloween day, temperatures will reach near 52 degrees in the city, and  upper 40’s in the snow covered areas inland. Look for fair conditions for Halloween night with chilly conditions. Temperatures will start out in the mid 40’s early, then drop into the 30’s late. Tuesday will be a mostly cloudy day from Boston area to the Cape. A storm will miss us to the south, with possibly some light showers down the Cape. It will be windy down the Cape, with some gusts possibly up to 40 m.p.h. out of the northeast. Temperatures will be around 50. Watch for sunny weather to return for Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures running close to average Wednesday, then maybe a little above on Thursday with highs near 60. Our next chance of precipitation comes in the form of some rain showers on Thursday night and Friday as a cold front moves through. Right now, next weekend looks mainly sunny, with cool temperatures Saturday, but possibly warming up to near 60 by Sunday.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s post, I will talk a little more about whether October snowfalls have any correlation for the upcoming winter. I will also talk more about the upcoming pattern for November, as I begin to assemble my forecast for the upcoming winter, published on Thanksgiving week. I’ll also let you know whether we can expect some last minute fall colors. One more note, daylight savings ends next Saturday, as we fall back. Don’t forget to turn your clocks back one hour next Saturday, as we gain one extra hour of sleep! In the meantime, Mother Nature has delivered the trick, perhaps now she will serve us the treat?

Pete

Trick or treat? October snowstorm on the way!

When you wake up Sunday morning and open the shade, you might think to yourself, wait a minute, is this Halloween eve or Christmas eve? Yes, it’s true, the potential storm that I had been eyeing at the beginning of the week is going to hit New England, and hit us hard! After reviewing the latest computer models, it looks like Boston’s Logan airport may be in store for a record breaking October snowfall Saturday night. That’s not saying much, as the record snow at the airport for October is only 1.1″. However, with the airport’s location being right on the Atlantic Ocean, and it still being only October, this could be a unprecedented event. Interior New England is no stranger to accumulating snow in October, even some heavy snowstorms have occurred in the past. With all this being said, let me get right into the important details of this storm.

If you have any plans on going out for tonight, no worries, there will be no precipitation tonight. It will be on the cold side, with lows dropping into the 20’s and 30’s regionwide. Watch for a freshening east wind tomorrow, with thickening clouds and rain beginning during the afternoon. It will be a raw day, with highs in the mid 40’s. Look for the October nor’easter to intensify Saturday night, with rapidly deteriorating conditions across New England. Winds will be gusty, and will back in from the east into the northeast during the evening, then turn into the north towards midnight. It’s when the winds back into the north, is when the rain, or rain mixed with snow will rapidly turn over to heavy wet snow in the city of Boston. This is a type of situation that if you live close to the water, such as South Boston, Dorchester, or Quincy the snow will have a tough time accumulating. However, if you live further inland, such as Jamaica Plain, West Roxbury, Newton, Needham, and the western part of Brookline, expect snow to accumulate rapidly, possibly up to 6″ of heavy wet snow. Closer to the ocean, including Logan airport, expect 2 to possibly up to 3″ to accumulate. This is only part of the story. If you live further inland, particularly west of Rt. 128, expect even heavier accumulations. Expect anywhere from 6 to 12″ of snow in these areas, with 6″ being in the lower elevations, and up to 1 foot of snow in the hilly terrain of Worcester county, Nashua and Manchester areas, and southwest New Hampshire. These accumulations hold true as well if you live further north into New Hampshire, up to the Plymouth N.H. area, and into the state of Maine. Even in these areas, if you live closer to the coast, such as the Portsmouth area, expect 3 to 6″ of heavy wet snow, with heavier amounts just inland from the water.

A very important aspect of this storm is going to be the power outages and tree damage due to the weight of the heavy wet snow on the still foliated trees. In fact, this may be the most damaging storm of the whole winter season in many areas! Expect widespread power outages and tree damage, especially west, and southwest of the city of Boston. This is going to be a dangerous storm to be out in tomorrow night. If you don’t have to go out, stay inside and be prepared for power outages. The storm will wind down early Sunday morning and we will begin the clean up under clearing skies and temperatures in the 40’s. Halloween looks like it will be fair and chilly, with highs near 50, and lows in the lower 30’s.

Well that’s about it for now. I will update this blog if I receive any new information pertaining to the impending storm. Otherwise, I will post on my usual time Moday morning. In my post, I will review the October nor’easter, as well as talk about if this type of very early winter storm has any implications on the upcoming winter. In the meantime, be prepared for just about anything to happen this weekend. We shouldn’t be totally surprised, this is New England!

Pete