Colder…snow?? 10/24/11

Despite the warm autumn that we’ve been experiencing, and the delayed fall foliage, winter 2011-12 seems to want to crash the warm weather party early this year. As I reviewed the latest computer models this morning, I was surprised to see one of the more reliable models forecasting a pre Halloween snowstorm for New England! Since this is still a week away,  things are subject to change, however, it is showing us that the seasons are changing, and changing fast! As I have said before, snow in October is not unprecedented, and it does not always mean a tough winter is ahead. What would be unusual is if it snows after such a warm October. Even if the snow doesn’t show up, the cold weather coming for next weekend will make it feel more like December rather than October! Signs of the chilly air showed up this past weekend, with many areas, including myself in West Roxbury, noted their first frosts of the season last night. I will have more about the potential storminess later on in my forecast.

This past Saturday I attended the 12th annual Southern New England Weather Conference at the MediTech complex in Canton, Ma. It was a very informative event, and a good time was had by all! Many local meteorologists were in attendance, including our old favorite Dick Albert (retired). In addition, many important people from the National Weather Service were there, as well as people from other parts of the country who came in to give very informative discussions. Among just a few of the topics covered were the severe winter storms and the challenges in predicting them that paralyzed New England last winter.  The super Alabama tornado outbreak in April last year, as well as the tornado that struck New York City in September of last year. There was also a very interesting topic about weather in space, and how the sun plays an important role in solar storms, affecting us here on earth with electric power grids,  satellite communications, and GPS applications.

The main event was saved for the end of the conference, where Joe Bastardi and Joe D’Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics held a presentation about the forecast for the upcoming winter here in New England. Needless to say, trying to forecast for a few days can be challenging here in New England, never mind for a whole season as comlpex as a whole winter! With that being said, these guy’s are the best in the industry, and came up with, what I think, a very good idea at what the winter may bring us this year. I will not get into all of the technical details of the discussion, but I will let you know what they said in a nutshell. So what the experts are calling for is a winter with a similar pattern to last winter. That does not mean we are in for another 81″ of snow here in Boston! What it does mean, is to watch out for a year of above average snowfall (average is 42″ at Logan airport), a season that starts off fast maybe as early as late November and especially in December. There will be a relaxation of the pattern sometime in January, only to possibly return again in February and March. In summation, it looks like another long winter is ahead for us here in New England. Personally, I like to wait until I see the temperature and precipitation profiles for the month of November at Logan airport before I give my winter forecast. This is why I wait until Thanksgiving time to release my forecast for the winter.

Briefly before I get to the forecast, I did want to give a update on the progress of the fall foliage. Yes, it is delayed this year, by about two weeks, and yes, it’s not as vibrant as other years. That’s not to say it’s still not beautiful in many areas. I had a friend post on Facebook some beautiful trees with brilliant yellow leaves on it. With the colder weather finally arriving, I expect a burst of nice colors around here come next week!

Now for your outdoor weekly activity forecast. I am giving this week a 6 out of 10, due to the increase chances of storminess towards the end of this week and next weekend. Expect some sunshine along with some increasing clouds for the rest of your Monday, high temperatures will top off near 60. There may be some showers moving through the area late tonight, but they will clear the coast by dawn, look for lows to mainly be in the 40’s. Watch for windy conditions for your Tuesday, with sunshine along with some passing clouds. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs in the upper 50’s to low 60’s, however, with the wind it will feel alot cooler than that. Tuesday night will feature some increasing clouds, with lows in the 40’s again. Look for mostly cloudy weather on Wednesday, with some showers arriving around midday, highs will be in the lower 60’s. Watch for a cold front to slip south of New England and then stall. It will be turning colder with temperatures falling through the 50’s, with some periods of rain. If you live in western or northern New England, it may turn cold enough for you to see your first light snow of the season. Friday may dry out for a time, but be on the chilly side with highs only in the 40’s. Next weekend is where there is alot of question marks. It will be colder, with highs in the 40’s, and lows in the 20’s…brrr! Will there be any precipitation? The European computer model actually shows a nor’easter type of a storm heading up the coast on Sunday, with cold air banked up to our north, I have to call for a possible early season snowstorm to impact the area! This is very preliminary, and is subject to change! I will have an update on this potential situation later on in the week if needed.

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will have your all important Halloween trick or treat forecast! I’ll give you a hint, it looks like where going back to the old days of Halloween, when we had to wear winter coats, hats, and gloves! I’ll also have one more fall foliage update, as the color wave begins to progress into the Boston area. I will also preview what we might expect weatherwise for the month of November. In the meantime, keep your scorecards handy, your costumes ready, and your snow shovels steady, you may need them all this week!

Pete

Midweek washout! 10/17/11

As if we havn’t had enough precipitation so far this year, it appears as if we are in for another soaking rainstorm this Wednesday, and then maybe another one come next week! We are at the midway point of meteorological fall, and so far, it has been a warm and wet autumn around these parts. Yes, we’ve had some chilly nights, even with frost across a good portion of the interior. However, when you look at the numbers, they show this fall to be averaging out on the warm side, so far. I say so far because we still have six weeks to go, and things can turn around in November. One has to wonder, if these surges of heavy rainfall were to continue into the colder months…well, I think you know where I’m going with that!

On a side note, this Saturday, I will be attending the 11th annual Southern New England Weather Conference, held in Canton, Ma. It is here, where many local meteorologists, climate experts, and weather enthusiasts, such as myself, will gather, and well, talk about the weather all day! Actually, alot more happens than just that. There will be experts holding breakout sessions talking about a wide variety of topics such as: climate change, past weather events such as tornados, floods and hurricanes, coastal zone management, and of course, winter weather events! Dr. Joe D’aleo and Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell analytics will also be attending. D’aleo, a winter weather and climate expert, will be giving his analysis for the upcoming winter here in New England! I am very excited about attending this event, and will have more information about the conference in next week’s blog.

In the shorter term, how does the rest of your October look weatherwise? Well, I don’t think I need to tell you that it has been a warm and wet month so far! In fact, I do believe that all of this warm weather has delayed all of the beautiful fall colors we come to expect during October. So does this mean we will not have fall foliage this year? The short answer to that is no. I believe the weather pattern will cool down enough, and with the days growing rapidly shorter during the next two weeks, the colors will rapidly spread across the area, peeking inside of Rt 128 right around Halloween, and the first week of November. With the excessive rainfall this fall, some colors may be somewhat muted than other years. However, it only takes a few crisp nights to bring out some brilliant color, so I’m not giving up yet! I have even seen some beautiful colors hold on all the way to Thanksgiving time before! Oh yes, back to the rest of October! Expect a cooling trend for the rest of the month, not to below average, but just about average, with highs in the 50’s and lower 60’s and lows in the 30’s and 40’s. Expect more rains, with a storm this week, then maybe two more next week!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10, weighted heavily in anticipation of a beautiful fall weekend expected next weekend! Look for mostly sunny weather for the rest of your Monday, with highs mainly in the mid 60’s. Expect fair weather tonight, with lows mainly in the 40’s in rural areas, to 50’s in the city. Watch for sunshine mixed with increasing high cloudiness for your Tuesday, with highs once again in the lower 60’s. Look for the sun to be blotted out by a dark cloud at sunset, a sign of an impending storm. I don’t expect any heavy rain Tuesday night, but a passing renegade shower can’t be ruled out. Winds will begin to freshen out of the southeast. As advertised, be prepared for a washout for Wednesday, with rain, heavy at times along with some tropical like downpours. It will also be on the windy side, with southeast winds importing in a tropical feel to the day, highs will be in the mid 60’s in the Boston area,  possibly near 70 south of the city, and in the lower 60’s north and west of town. Periodic showers may continue into Wednesday night, with shifting winds and cooler temperatures. Look for a changeable sky for your Thursday, with fast moving clouds along with some breaks of sun, and also a chance of a leftover shower or two, highs will reach the lower 60’s. Watch for somewhat colder weather to move into New England for Friday through Sunday. It should be partly sunny on Friday with highs near 60 and lows in the 30’s and 40’s. At this point, it looks like a beautiful fall weekend is on the way, with sunny blue skies and light winds, highs will be in the upper 50’s during the day, and 30’s at night, with frosty conditions.

Well that’s about it for now! In next week’s blog, I will be updating the fall foliage, as it progresses its way closer to the Boston area. I will also share with you some of the information I got from the weather conference…it should be interesting! In the meantime, keep those raincoats and umbrellas handy in anticpation of the midweek washout!

Pete

Indian Summer fading…for now! 10/10/11

Happy Columbus Day! It certainly will be a memorable one for many due to the spectacular weekend we had throughout New England, with many areas enjoying record high temperatures. In fact, Caribou Maine recorded its all time high temperature for the month of October yesterday, with a high of 82 degrees. Boston, Mass. smashed its record by 5 degrees, with a high of 87 yesterday! This was followed by temperatures region wide in the 80’s on Saturday, then again today! Whether you were up in the mountains enjoying the fall foliage, at the ocean for one last beach day, working around the house, or going for a nice long bike ride, this weekend’s weather was as good as it gets around here!

Whenever we have warm stretches of weather like this in the fall months, people often ask me whether this has any implications for the upcoming winter. After following the autumn weather here in New England carefully for the better part of my life, I can honestly say, no! I’ve seen warm falls turn into stormy winters, and cold October weather turn into mild and dry weather the following winter. Back in October of 1995, we had a whole month worth of weather just like this, only to be followed by the snowiest winter on record that year! I do follow the weather patterns closely during the months of October and November to help give me clues at what the following winter may bring. However, looking at the current pattern, it doesn’t say much. We are in a transient pattern, so what’s Indian Summer this weekend, will have the feel of fall next weekend, and then possibly back to Indian Summer two weeks from now! Because of the latent effect of the oceans, the pattern is only now starting to show signs of  changing from summer to autumn. If this bubble of warm and dry weather were to develop during November and persist for the duration of the month, then I would tilt the upcoming winter towards a mild one for sure. It’s just too early to tell right now whether this warm weather will have any bearing on the upcoming winter. As we move into the month of November, I will  have a better idea of what kind of winter we may be in for, leading up to my official forecast for the winter around Thanksgiving. At this point, I would just enjoy the Indian Summer weather when Mother Nature gives it to us, it may be the warmest weather around here until next May!

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to update everyone with the status of the fall foliage. Despite the very summery weekend, the leaves are changing! According to the reports off of the internet, it appears as if the colors aren’t as vibrant as other years. Even myself, here in Boston, I have noted that some trees just turned brown, and the leaves are just falling off. I have seen this before, and wrote it off as a bad season, only to see the trees light up with brilliant color at the last second. It’s a delicate system to bring out the best colors. Typically, mild, sunny days, with clear cool nights bring out the best fall colors. However, early frosts, or heavy rainfall, could mute the colors, or cause early leaf drop. We are just getting started down here in southern New England, so its not too late to turn things around to brighten things up around here by Halloween. Right now, peek colors are running through central New England, especially over the higher terrain, and valley locations. Expect this color wave to progress towards the south during the next couple of weeks, arriving in the Boston area during the last week of October.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will give this week a 7 out of 10, not bad for the second week in October! Look for a beautiful afternoon for the rest of your Columbus Day, with temperatures in the low 80’s with 100% sunshine and low humidity, a beautiful day for July, never mind October! Expect clear skies tonight, with lows generally in th 40’s to mid 50’s in urban areas. There will be a subtle wind shift into the northeast overnight, signifying a change in the weather. Watch for another beautiful day on Tuesday, with 100% of the possible sunshine again… the difference? Well it will be close to 20 degrees cooler along the coast, with highs only in the mid 60’s, which is only about average for this time of year! Tranquil conditions will continue Tuesday evening, with lows mainly in the 40’s to lower 50’s. Wednesday will start off with sun the first half of the day, followed by increasing clouds during the afternoon, highs will be in the 60’s regionwide. Watch for some showers to develop Wednesday night with lows in the 50’s. Be prepared for a rainy day on Thursday, with some locally heavy downpours likely, highs will be in the 60’s again, also feeling a bit more muggy.  Friday should see some improvement, with partly sunny skies, but also the chance of a few afternoon showers, and maybe even a pop up thunderstorm, as the air will be unstable. High temperatures will be near 70. Right now, next weekend looks to feature mostly fair weather, with highs generally in the 60’s, and lows in the 40’s.

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will have an update on the status of the fall colors, and also see what the last two weeks of October look like weatherwise. As always, I will also have your weekly outdoor forecast for you. In the meantime, enjoy the final day of Indian Summer part I, will there be a part II? Check in next week to find out!

Pete

Beautiful weather ahead…10/3/11

So far, 2011 has been a year of weather extremes. We started out the year with blizzards in January, an F3 tornado in June, blistering heat in July, only to be followed by heavy rains and oppressively muggy weather in September! Personally, I was glad to flip the calander to October this year. I don’t ever recall a September with so much humidity as this past one. In addition, the weekly forecasts have been especially difficult to predict as of late. For those expecting fall like weather this past weekend with deep blue skies and cool temperatures… sorry about that! Lately, we have been in a very slow moving weather pattern. Things could of been alot worse. People in the midwest have not seen the sun in a couple weeks. In fact, the storm system responsible for all of the inclement weather actually brought snow to the mountains of West Virginia over the weekend! It actually was colder much further south, than it was here in New England this past weekend! This is what we call a high amplitude weather pattern, with deep troughs (cold and stormy weather), and high ridges (warm and sunny weather). Lately, we’ve kind of been in between here in New England, some nice weather, and some stormy weather.

So what’s next? Now that September is in the books, what can we expect for the month of October? Before I get to October, I did want to let you know that September ended up to be a wetter month than normal (no surprise there), but it also ended up to be another warmer than normal month. This was the eighth straight month with above normal temperatures here in Boston…very interesting. So what about this month? Typically, October is a tranquil month. Average high temperatures start out in the upper 60’s, and then drop to the upper 50’s by Halloween. Average low temperatures start at the lower 50’s and then drop to the lower 40’s by months end. Many areas can also expect their first frosts this month here in southern New England. Typically 3 to 4 inches of precipitation falls in october. It normally does not snow in October, but it does happen occassionally! The main event in October is the fall foliage extravaganza, which spreads from north to south throughout the month. I will talk more about the foliage shortly. Keeping with the trend, I am expecting a warmer than normal October this year, with average amounts of precipitation. Although we have not had a first frost yet, I am expecting some long stretches of Indian Summer like weather coming up in October!

As stated earlier, October is the month for foliage around here! I am expecting more vibrant than normal colors this fall foliage season, due to the plentiful rainfall of this past summer and September. In addition, I’m expecting this season to extend a bit into early November around the Boston area due to the warm days ahead, and cool nights. Right now, fall foliage is peeking in far northern New England. Expect the color wave to move south this week into central New England, mainly across the interior higher terrain. Look for good color for your Columbus Day weekend for areas north of Concord New Hampshire in the White Mountains, the higher terrain of the Green Mountains around Killington, and the deep interior of Maine, around Mt. Khatadin. Expect peek colors further south the following weekend, then north and west of Boston for Halloween week, finally inside of Rt 128 right around Halloween itself. The beauty about fall foliage, is that if you can’t go on a trip to see it, it will come to you!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I will give this week an 8 out of 10, due to the spectacular weather on the way later this week. Look for some sunny breaks along with building clouds for the rest of your Monday, temperatures will be mild, mainly in the mid 60’s. Watch for some showers to develop tonight, with lows mainly in the upper 50’s. Expect some occassional showers for your Tuesday, especially in the morning, but I don’t see a washout, look for temperatures to be in the middle 60’s again. There may be some left over showers Tuesday evening, otherwise expect drier weather to start moving in, lows will be in the 50’s. Watch for a brisk wind to develop Wednesday with some early clouds, otherwise expect increasing sunshine, with temperatures in the lower 60’s. Look for the coolest weather of the fall to finally make it in here for Thursday and Friday, with highs mainly in the upper 50’s and low 60’s and lows in the 30’s and 40’s. If you live in a normally colder sheltered area, such as Bedford and Norwood, expect your first frost Thursday night. At this point, I am expecting a beautiful Columbus Day weekend ahead, with sunny weather and a warming trend. Expect temperatures to be in the upper 60’s on Saturday, then mid 70’s on Sunday, and possibly upper 70’s by Columbus Day itself! Sounds like Indian Summer to me!

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will look into just how long the Indian Summer like weather is expected to continue for. I will also have another fall foliage update for you. There is also some tropical activity still making some news, so I will also update you with that, along with any other newsworthy material that I may want to write about. In the meantime, I would soak up as much Indian Summer like weather that I could. Next month is November, when anything can happen…even snow!

Pete

Red sky at night…9/26/11

I think everyone has heard of the old saying, “Red sky at night, sailor’s delight” before. In other words, if you see a red sky at sunset, a good day of weather should follow. Is this true, or just an old wives tale? Actually, this “signal” by Mother Nature does hold a good bit of truth to it! Last night, I had the fortune of being at the beach on the seacoast of New Hampshire while the sun was setting. I don’t know if anyone else saw it, but it was one of the most amazing sunsets that I ever saw. With curtains of red cascading over the horizon, the sky seemed to be on fire! As I was watching the sunset, I wondered what sailor’s were seeing out at sea, and if they knew that a good day of weather was on the way. Sure enough, when I woke up this morning, and drew the curtains to the side, the sun was shining, and a beautiful day was here!

So how does this happen? How do the clouds and the sun tell us it’s going to be a good day? Actually, it’s not so cut and dry. There are different hues to the sunset, that can portray different weather conditions for the next day. For instance, golden color sunsets forewarn of a storm coming, with high winds. A colorless sunset with dark clouds as a base is also not a good sign for nice weather. Bright pink sunsets can also mean that a storm is brewing. However, when sunsets are red in color, more times than not, it means sailor’s delight, or fine weather on the way. When the sun is setting, its light is refracting through the clouds and dust along the horizon, if the color is red, this signifies high pressure, or sinking air is moving in from the west, thus assuring a nice day is to follow!

While viewing the sunset last night, it got me thinking at what a beautiful summer day it was yesterday. Then I thought, wait a minute, it’s not summer anymore! We were officially into the second full day of fall! In fact, while driving north into southern New Hampshire on Sunday, I was very surprised to see that some of the trees are beginning to turn colors already. I know there was a cold snap about 10 days ago, which may have contributed to the fast start of the changing colors. I will talk more about fall foliage in  next week’s blog.

Since it has been so warm recently, some people have been asking me whether this is Indian Summer. Technically, the true definition of Indian Summer is a sunny warm period of weather after the first frost. Some areas of northern and western New England have had their first frosts, so in these locations, it can be called Indian Summer. However, for us living in eastern New England, you can call it a bonus period of summer weather! Indian Summer, generally occurs in the Boston area towards the second half of October into early November, after we have had our first frosts. Looking at some long range weather maps, I am expecting some chilly weather to arrive at the start of October, only to be replaced with some sunny warmer weather later on…so Indian Summer looks like a good bet this year!

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I am giving this week another 7 out of 10. I could of downgraded last week to a 6 out of 10 due to all of the muggy weather, but I’m not going to get picky here. For the rest of your Monday, look for mostly sunny and very warm weather, with highs of 77 right at the beach, to as much as 82 degrees inland. Tonight will be pleasant, with fair skies along with some patchy ground fog, lows will be in the 50’s and lower 60’s. Expect Tuesday to feature sunny weather early to be followed by increasing clouds later in the day. Winds will freshen a bit off of the ocean, so expect temperatures to be a few degrees cooler than today. It will be a subtle change, but it will signify the beginning of the end for summer 2011. Expect rain free conditions for any outdoor activities for your Tuesday evening. Watch for rain to develop sometime on Wednesday afternoon, with temperatures in the low 70’s. It will be rainy and on the damp side Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon, with highs in the low 70’s again. Expect dryer weather to arrive on Friday, however there may be a shower or even gusty thundershower Friday evening as a strong cold front approaches, temperatures will be near 70. Right now, look for full autumn conditions to sweep into New England next weekend, with partly sunny weather with a brisk wind. Expect temperatures to be in the lower 60’s on Saturday, and 40’s at night. On Sunday, watch for temperatures to be in only in the 50’s across the high terrain, and 30’s at night. there may even be a chance of some snow flurries in the mountains!

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will be talking about fall foliage, and the beautiful colors that are beginning to spread  across New England. I will also be talking about what we might expect across the region weather wise for the month of October. In the meantime, for those who would like to extend the nice weather, keep an eye out for red sunsets at night, and hope for Indian Summer!

Pete

Time for fall! 9/19/11

Many feel this is the best time of the year here in New England, and who would argue after this past weekend? Right on cue, the cool weather that invaded the region at the end of last week certainly got peoples attention that, yes, fall is here, and by weeks end it will be official. This past weekends weather reminds us why we love this time of the year so much! With deep blue skies, cool crisp nights, it’s time for fall, and all of the beauty it brings with it!  To this date, I have not met one person in my life, who does not like this time of the year! Fall festivals, football games, apple picking, viewing fall foliage, or finding the perfect pumpkin, are among some of the things New Englander’s enjoy doing this time of the year. I feel very fortunate to be living in an area on this earth where we get to enjoy four distinct seasons during the year.

So how does this process happen? How do we change the seasons? First, to understand the weather, and life as we know it today, you must know that the sun is the driving force behind everything. Without the sun, there is no life. Simply put, the earth makes one complete revolution on its axis in 24 hours. As we spin, it’s also revolving around the sun, taking a full 365 days to complete this journey. While we revolve around the sun, the earth also tilts on its axis. During the summer, we are tilting toward the sun resulting in more direct solar radiation on us, thus the warmer temperatures. In the winter, we are tilting away from the sun, which means less solar heating, and colder temperatures. During the spring and autumnal equinox, we are right at the midpoint of this process, this means our days and nights are of equal time. Once we reach the autumnal equinox come this Friday, the days will begin to shorten more rapidly, as we begin to tilt further away from the sun, until we reach the winter solstice. At that point, we will begin tilting towards the sun again, until we reach the sping equinox again!

So what should we expect in the next couple of months? Well, we will now begin the process of shutting down the growing season across the area. The first thing we need to watch for is first frosts across the area. Some areas across the interior have already received their first frosts this past weekend. Although not unprecedented, this was a bit early even for these areas. Typically, our first frosts occur here in eastern Massachusetts sometime during the first week of October. First frosts vary from year to year, so some years are earlier than others. Next thing you will notice, are the leaves beginning to change color. Fall folige also varies from year to year, however, leaves are beginning to change right now in northern New England. Peak colors will arrive in far northern New England by the end of September. This “color wave” will begin heading south during the month of October, not reaching inside Rt. 128 until around Halloween. I will talk more about the fall foliage as we move deeper into fall. Finally, I wanted to talk briefly on the fall timetable about lawn mowing. Yesterday, I watched my brother in law mow his lawn up in New Hampshire for three hours!  Generally speaking, we run on a six month mow, and six months no mowing cycle, here in southern New England. Typically, the mowing season finishes at a about Halloween time. At this point, temperatures are too cool for grass to grow anymore…so the end is in sight!

Now for your outdoor weekly activity forecast. I will rate this week another 7 out of 10, not perfect, but still very nice. Expect lots of sun amidst some passing clouds for the rest of your Monday. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs manly in the 60’s. If you have plans on being at the Red sox game tonight, expect a pleasant evening with temperatures dropping into the upeer 50’s by games end, so bring a jacket. Watch for more clouds for Tuesday, with a chance of a few showers coming through later in the day. It will begin to warm up a bit, with highs in the lower 70’s. There may be some showers Tuesday evening, but nothing too heavy, lows will be near 60. Expect increasing sunshine on Wednesday, with temperatures in the mid to upper 70’s. Look for clouds to be on the increase Wednesday night, temperatures will be milder, with lows mainly in the low 60’s.  Watch for some early sun on Thursday, but the day may finish with rainy weather. It will be another warm day, with highs in the mid 70’s. Right now, Friday looks to be on the wet side for the first official day of autumn, with highs in the lower 70’s. At this point, if everything moves along according to plan, next weekend looks to be another fine fall weekend around here, with sunny, dry weather, under breezy conditions. Temperatures look to be in the low 70’s across the area.

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will scope out the tropics to see if we have any additional tropical storms brewing. I didn’t have time today, but next week I will talk in more detail about some folks favorite fall phenomina…Indian Summer! In the meantime, get ready to rake those leaves, close down the gardens, and put away the flip flops, because it’s time for fall!

Pete

Summer’s back…for now! 9/12/11

After last week’s monsoon, it was certainly nice to have several nice day’s in a row to dry out! As bad as it was around here, it paled in comparison to the record breaking flooding which occurred in Pennsylvania and New York state region. It was especially comforting to see the beautiful weather yesterday for all of the  9/11  memorials taking place. In a way, the day reminded me alot of that fateful day 10 years ago. With deep blue skies, brilliant sunshine and very little wind to speak of, the similarities were uncanny. Also just as ten years ago, difficult emotions were stirred after watching many of the ceremonies and seeing the picures and video from one of the worst days in American history. With that being said, from what I saw, all of the memorials were done with dignity, class, and thoughtful. This includes all of the politicians down at Ground Zero, here in Boston,  Tropicana field in Tampa Bay (where the Red Sox played), and all of the opening games of the NFL yesterday, yes, including the N.Y. Jets game last night…very nice.

So, what’s next? Where do we go from here in terms of New England weather? We are now into the middle part of September, and it’s time to start looking back to summer 2011, and look  forward to autumn. This week, both seasons will show their face. I will talk more about this in my forecast shortly. So, how about summer 2011? Overall, I was pleased with my forecast published back on Memorial Day. It worked out very much as I figured it would. One surprise (there are always surprises!) was the intensity of the heat in July. However, June and August only averaged a little warmer than normal.  When you compiled the three months making up summer (June, July and August) it did end up being another summer warmer than the long term averages, but not as hot as last summer. Despite the hot, dry weather in July, the summer as a whole, ended up wetter than normal, due to heavy rains in June, and then again in August and early September. It’s ironic, with winter being my favorite season, I have forecasted the past two summers correctly, and have missed the mark on the past two winters! Last week, I gave my fall forecast, and see no reason to change my ideas with that right now.

With this being the 12th of September, we just passed the very peak of tropical season, which is around September 10th, on average. Anything happening out there today? Well, we have tropical storm Maria, which usually in a dangerous position for us here in New England. However, like its predecessor Katia, Maria will thread the needle between Bermuda and New England, and recurve out to sea. Like Katia, expect surf to build along the beaches in New England as Maria passes by sometime on Thursday. Expect the tropical season to continue to be active through September, with possibly one to three more hurricanes to be named.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I noticed I forgot to rate last week in my blog! For this week, I am going to give it a 7 out of 10. Expect summery weather the first half, and then the first taste of fall for the second half of the week! Look for partly sunny weather for the rest of your Monday, it will be warmer, with highs in the upper 70’s. Watch for the waxing full Harvest Moon rising in the east early tonight, then brightly illuminating the New England landscape overnight. It will be on the mild side, with lows generally in the lower 60’s in urban areas, and 50’s in rural areas. Look for increasing southwest winds for tomororrow and Wednesday, with partly sunny skies and very warm temperatures. Expect both days to feature summery temperatures, with highs in the mid 80’s. It will be cooler down the Cape and along the south coast. Wednesday could be the last real beach day of the season? Anytime from late Wednesday to about midday Thursday, expect a chance of  some showers and possibly a strong thunderstorm as a strong cold front moves through New England. Now for the second half of the week. Expect clearing skies along with gusty winds on Thursday afternoon, it will turn cooler, with temperatures dropping into the 60’s by days end. Watch for full autumn conditions to settle into New England come Friday and Saturday. Look for high temperatures to struggle into the low to mid 60’s with lows in the 30’s up north, and 40’s here in southern New England…brrr! Despite the cool weather, expect deep blue skies amidst some passing fair weather clouds dotting the sky, just what you would expect fall weather to be like here in New England. Come Sunday, look for a chilly start, but temperatures should moderate back to around 70 during the afternoon, under dry conditions.

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will go over the fall timetable, , such as fall foliage, last mowing dates, first frosts ect. I will also talk about many folks favorite fall phenomina: Indian Summer! In the meantime, enjoy this weeks version of summers comeback, it could be the last for a while! Go Patriots!

Pete

Goodbye summer…9/5/11

Happy Labor Day to everyone! I’m so happy that the weekend forecast worked out well!  Whether you are doing work around the house, went camping, or maybe one last trip to the beach, it has been summery weather as advertised. Unfortunately, this has not been the case throughout all of New England. If you live in the western part of New England, such as Vermont and western Massachusetts, you’ve been dealing with showers and thunderstorms. After the flooding rains of Irene last weekend, this is the last thing these areas need right now. Eventually, all good things must come to an end, and the stormy weather will catch up with us here in eastern areas. I will talk more about this shortly in my forecast.

So what about September and Labor Day,  is summer over? Can we expect snow flurries soon? I think you know that the answer to that statement is no. As talked about in previous blogs, meteoroligical summer does end on August 31 st. However, astronomic autumn does not begin this year until September 23 rd. Some years, like last year, summer tends to linger well into the fall. It’s true, the northern hemisphere is now beginning to tilt away from the sun. This means shorter days, less solar radiation, and cooler weather. We tend to enjoy our best weather of the year during the fall months. This can include frequent stretches of Indian Summer, cool crisp nights, and clear blue skies. We enjoy this weather this time of the year mainly due to a process called latent heating and cooling. Simply put, the Atlantic Ocean to our east takes longer for it to cool down than the land masses, thus peventing the cold weather from arriving here too early. With that being said, this is the time of the year when temperatures tend to begin to cool down here in New England. When you wake up tomorrow morning, you will know summer is over!

So what about the rest of this September? Overall, I expect this September to end up to be a little cooler and wetter than previous September’s. September generally starts out with highs averaging in the upper 70’s and lows in the lower 60’s. By months end, this cools to the lower 70’s with lows in the lower 50’s. Up in northern New England, you can deduct about 10 degrees off of these numbers. About 3 to 4 inches of rain falls on average. That does not mean that we are not going to have any more nice weather, just not this week! We actually are on another streak of above normal months beginning last February. Right now, the early call for autumn is for near seasonal to slightly cooler than normal temperatures, along with near normal amounts of precipitation. As we move deeper into the fall, I expect this November to be more on the wintery side, than previous November’s.

Now for weekly outdoor activity forecast. As stated earlier, be prepared for a rude awakening come tomorrow morning! Expect clouds to be on the increase along with some sunshine for the rest of your Monday, it will be on the muggy side, with high in the lower 80’s. If you live well north and west of Boston, look for frequent showers and thunderstorms, making for a soggy Labor Day. If you live in the Boston area, it looks like you may just squeek in the last cookout of the summer rain free. However, anytime after 8:00 p.m. look for showers to move in. Overnight, not only should you expect rain to become steadier and heavier, but you will also notice a distinct wind shift  into the northeast, with temperatures plummeting into the 50’s. It’s time for one of those combination forecasts. Sometimes these are good with nice stretches of weather, not the case this time! For the period Tuesday through Thursday, expect periods of heavy rain, gusty northeast winds, and chilly temperatures, with highs mainly in the 60’s. It may try to dry out for a time later Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but that’s only a chance at this point. In the longer term, watch for hurricane Katia to pass southeast of New England later on in the week. Two things will happen when this occurrs. One, it will increase the surf along our coastline, and two, it will tend to pull this pesky weather system affecting us this week out to sea. So with all that said, look for clearing skies, cooler and drier weather to move into the region come Friday straight on through next weekend! It should be classic September weather here, with highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s.

Well that’s about it for now. Next week, I will begin to review summer 2011, as well as talk about any new developments happening in the tropics. Not that we need to be reminded, but next Sunday will be the 10 year anniversary of 9/11. There’s not much we can do on that day, but we can pause and remember the families and victims of that day in our prayers. In the meantime, enjoy the rest of your Labor Day, then get ready to say hello to fall!

Pete

Models showing nice weather now…9/2/11

No, Gisele Bundchen did not update her weather forecast for the weekend! The computer models which forecasters use to forecast our weather, have done a 360 degree turn on this weekends forecast. Actually, my original forecast back from Monday doesn’t look too bad after all. Things didn’t look as rosy when I checked out the models on Wednesday, however.  I was a bit surprised when the models were painting alot of green on the maps and basically a washout for Sunday and Monday.  This morning, computer models have backed off from that scenerio, and now are painting a nicer picture for us!

I was chatting with a good friend of mine at the gym on Wednesday night,  and to say he was disheartened with my latest assessment for the weekend would be an understatement. I could totally relate with this. After a so so summer, it seems as if every weekend since the beginning of August has featured at least some rain, particuarly on Sunday’s. It only seems fair to have a couple nice days on Labor Day weekend before we settle into the cooler times ahead. It’s not going to be perfect, but no wash outs are anticipated.

Now for the forecast. Expect a coolish day today, with a flow in from the ocean look for temperatures to mainly be in the 70’s, under partly sunny skies. After some early patchy fog, look for skies to become partly sunny for Saturday, with just a small chance for a afternoon shower. It will be a much more summery feeling day, with highs in the lower 80’s, along with higher humidity. Saturday evening should be fine for any outdoor plans. Sunday now looks like it will be a decent day, with sunshine mixed with some cumulus clouds. It will be another warm and humid day with highs in the mid 80’s. If you have plans for the beach, I would say do it! It may be the last one for the season! By the way, for people who are heading north to go camping or hiking, expect a higher chance for showers sometime on Sunday. For Labor Day itself, expect partly sunny weather in the morning to give way to mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon, with an increasing chance of some afternoon showers. All in all, not too bad.

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will preview the weather for September as well as for the upcoming fall. In the meantime, have a safe and happy Labor Day weekend!

Pete

Irene Blows through…8/29/11

O.K. So it wasn’t the worst storm in 50 years. Don’t tell this to the people who don’t have power, or people who live in Vermont, or anyone who had a 50 ft tree fall onto their home! Yes, Irene left her mark across New England yesterday, some worse off than others. As it turned out, Irene’s bark was worse than her bite. With that being said, this storm could have been a lot worse! Had the storm taken the path which I was expecting, eastern Massachusetts would have been hit by a much more serious storm. It was the battle between two computer models which we use. The European model had the track hugging the coast, passing it over New York City, then up into western Massachusetts, weakening it to a tropical storm.  Meanwhile, the U.S. generated model (GFS) brought the storm northward, over open ocean, slamming it into southern New England as a cat 2 hurricane, passing it just west of Boston.  This type of track would of brought significant damage to the greater Boston area, along with a much more serious storm surge along the south coast. As it turned out, the European model had the right idea with the eventual track of the storm. We were still on the dangerous east side of the storm, however the storm had already unleashed its fury down over North Carolina, and was in a weakening stage as it headed up north. This was good news for us living here in eastern Massachusetts!

What about the west side of the storm?  People who live in western Massachusetts and Vermont won’t soon  forget the wrath of Irene! As Irene moved north, it interacted with the hilly terrain, squeezing out the tropical moisture, resulting in catastrophic flooding. In a very short period of time, 8 to 12” of rain fell, washing roads away, flooding homes, even washing away old
wooden bridges!

So where was I during the storm? I was at my sister and brother in law’s house in southeast New Hampshire. I estimated winds to be 40 to 50 m.p.h during the peek of the storm. In addition, frequent tropical rain squalls soaked the region into the early afternoon. All in all, it pretty much behaved like what you would expect a tropical storm would be. Some trees and power lines down, but nothing too serious. The highlight of the day came when we ventured out into the storm, of course with the Defender! It was interesting heading to the ocean and getting a different perspective of the storm. At our first stop, the first thing you noticed was the sustained winds whipping off of the ocean at some 40 m.p.h. These winds whipped up the Atlantic Ocean into a frenzy! I estimated the waves to be on the order of 7 to 10 feet high. Determined to find an even better view, we loaded back up into the Jeep and headed north.  Our next stop brought us to Ogunquit, Maine. It was here, where Mother Nature really put on a show! As we walked along the pathway towards the point, the waves were pounding into the rocks below. I estimated some waves to be 10 to 12 feet high. Fortunately, we were set back and high enough to be out of harms way. With that being said, I don’t believe we could of gotten any closer to the pounding surf without being swept away! On the way back, the local fire chief reprimanded us for being on the walk way, then a local police officer proceeded to sternly lecture us on public safety. While walking back, we all agreed that it was worth the lecture to be able to see the ocean like that…it was amazing!

Now onto your weekly outdoor forecast. No hurricanes this week! I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. For the rest of today through
Wednesday, expect sunny, dry and warm weather with highs a few degrees either side of 80. Look for clear, dry cool nights, with lows mainly in the 50’s…refreshing! Watch for the humidity along with some clouds starting Thursday through Saturday. Highs will mainly be in the lower 80’s. There may be some scattered showers during this period, but I’m not expecting any washouts. At this point, Sunday looks to feature some sun along with some building afternoon clouds with a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. For Labor Day itself, skies look to become sunny with drier air, temp.’s should mainly be in the 70’s. I will  update this forecast later on in the week…so check back!

Well that’s about it for now. Next week, I will review the month of August, as well as preview the month of September. In the meantime, enjoy the beautiful weather coming up this week…that is, until the next storm blows through New England!  Have a happy and safe Labor Day!

Pete