Irene looking mean…8/26/11

After reviewing as much data as time would permit, I would like to share with you on what I believe may be the worst storm to hit eastern Massachusetts in 50 years. Some may call it a cop out for waiting until 48 hours before the event to make my final call, but lessons from past experiences held me from making a prediction for such a storm too far in advance. With that being said, if you’ve been following my posts the past several weeks, the talk of a tropical system hitting New England was clearly indicated! -Now on to more serious matters at hand…the storm!

First, I would like to applaud the National Hurricane Center, NOAA, and the National Weather Service for the advancement in technology in trying to forecast the exact path and strength of these often unpredictable and fickle storms. No one has nailed anything yet, but just the fact that they have been able to get the warnings out to the public, speaks volumes as to how far we’ve come over the past 60 years. Just think, back in 1938, there was very little warning for the Great Hurricane of 1938, when 600 people died.

As stated earlier, I believe that Irene will be the worst storm to hit eastern Massachusetts in 50 years. With computer models having first predicted the storm’s eye passing close to the Cape, then shifting it west passing over New York City, they now seem to have come to a compromise somewhere in the middle. This is ultimately the worst track for eastern Massachusetts. Why? Because the most dangerous areas of hurricanes are normally found on the eastern side of the storm. This is where the most damaging winds and coastal flooding take place. In addition, the hurricane will generally remain over open ocean as it makes its way due north up the coast. This will prevent the storm from weakening too much. I am expecting Irene to be a strong category one hurricane when making landfall along the southern New England coast on Sunday evening. At that point, Irene will begin to move inland to the north, then northeast passing through central Mass., then curving northeast through New Hampshire weakening to a tropical storm as it travels further inland.

Now for the forecast. Since the hurricane will affect many of us here in New England, I am going to break down the forecast areas into zones to cover each area. First for the area which I think will be hit hardest by the storm. If you live anywhere from a line from Providence, R.I. to Worcester, Mass. to Nashua N.H. eastward to Portsmouth, N.H. and all points to the south and east, batten down the hatches!!!! Expect conditions to deteriorate rapidly come Sunday afternoon. Watch for heavy rains to develop Saturday night spreading from south to north with increasing southerly winds. Sunday is going to be very stormy! Expect south winds to increase to 40 to 70 m.p.h. with gusts up to 90 m.p.h. during the late afternoon as the hurricane passes to our west. In addition, there will be tropical downpours with 3 to 6″ of rain falling resulting in some flooding. With landfalling hurricanes, there may even be a few week tornadoes touching down to add to the misery. Expect widespread power outages and tree damage. If you live anywhere along the south coast, be prepared to evacuate to higher ground! As the storm moves in, a storm surge of 5 to 8  feet of sea water will flood low lying coastal areas…very dangerous! For people who live in northern and western New England, don’t expect a to get off so easily. No, it won’t be as windy, be you will be dealing with flooding tropical rains to the tune of 6 to 10 inches. Such rainfall falling in a short period like that may produce flash flooding and flooded out roadways. In addition, winds will reach tropical storm force, which range from 40 to 70 m.ph. This is strong enough to break large branches, and cause power outages. People who live along the Maine coast north of Portland will have to be on gaurd for strong southeasterly gusts of up to 80 m.ph. with possible storm surges of up to 5 feet.

Needless to say, if you don’t have to go out from Sunday noontime on, just stay inside with family and friends to ride the storm out! Come Monday morning, the sun will be shining and the clean up will be underway! For what it’s worth, the next two weeks look to bring sunny, warm and drier weather to most of New England. We are going to need it after this weekend!

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will be reviewing the impacts from the hurricane, and also be giving my Labor Day forecast for you. In the meantime, be prepared for a dangerous period of weather come Sunday into Sunday night, hopefully Irene’s bark is worse than her bite!

Pete

Tracking Irene…8/22/11

After what seemed like an endless stretch of oppressive humidity, a bonified cool front has finally been able to clear the New England coast this morning! Everyone who has been battling the high hair friz factor lately will finally be getting a break over the next couple of days. As stated in previous posts, we are lucky to be living here in New England with such a changeable climate. Imagine living in south, where they don’t get a break from the heat and humidity until maybe September! How about living in Dallas, Texas, where they’ve had over 40 days of over 100 degree heat this summer! Think about it, we had ONE day here in New England this summer over 100 degress, and you’d think people were going to die the way they were talking! It’s all relative. They may be saying the same thing about us when we have three feet of snow on the ground during the winter. How do they live up there? The point is, climates vary greatly across our country, but I believe, no climate is as diverse as the climate which we have right here in New England. During the course of a year, sometimes even a week, I believe we experience every type of climate found throughout the world. Remember, New England is located exactly half way between the Equator and the North Pole, with the Atlantic Ocean to our east, Canada just to our north, and the tropics to our south. This makes us vunerable to blizzards, flooding rains, tornados,  heat waves, intense cold, sunny dry weather, and yes, even hurricanes.

Last week, I was talking about the possibility of a tropical type storm hitting New England soon. Over the weekend, tropical storm Irene formed, and has since further intensified into a category 1 hurricane. This storm lashed Puerto Rico yesterday with heavy rains, and strong winds, knocking out power to hundreds of thousands. Irene is now on the move, and already has surprised forecasters and computer models with its iratic track and unpredictable nature. This is important. The fact that Irene passed north of Puerto Rico, and not directly over it is critical to its eventual effects on the east coast including New England. If Irene were to pass over Puerto Rico and then the Dominican Republic, it would of dismantled the circulation passing over the mountains. Hurricanes need to be over warm open ocean with temperatures of at least 80 degrees to maintain intensity. Now that the center looks as if it is going to pass north of these areas, it has a chance to become a significant threat of becoming a major landfalling hurricane somewhere along the southeast coast (South Carolina) of the United States. In fact, some computer models are forecasting Irene to become a category dangerous 3 storm. Category three storms have sustained winds of up to 120 m.p.h. It has been three years since a hurricane has made landfall here in the states, so we are long overdue. I will have more on how Irene may play a role in our weather shortly in my forecast.

Speaking of hurricanes, we all know that we are overdue for a major hurricane to hit New England. I wanted to briefly talk about a storm that hit Cape Cod 20 years ago. On August 19th, 1991, Hurricane Bob slammed into southeastern Mass. particularly hard hit was Cape Cod. Bob’s eye passed southeast of Boston, putting the Cape on the dangerous southeast quadrent of the storm. Bob was a category 2 storm when it made landfall, producing winds of up to 115 m.p.h. and a 12 foot storm surge into Buzzards Bay, causing significant damage. It was a storm that alot of people won’t soon forget if you were in that part of the state on that day. Since Boston was on the north side of the storm, I remember that day as being  just a  rainy day, with northeast winds, kind of like a summer nor’easter. Had the eye pass west of Boston, there would of been much more significant damage around here.

Now for the weekly outdoor activity forecast. I’m glad last week turned out better than I had forecasted, people always remember when its the other way around. It looks like we are back on track this week with our beautiful summer weather…at least until the weekend! I will give this week a 7 out of 10. It would be higher if I wasn’t concerned about Irene late in the period. Look for mostly sunny, drier, pleasant weather for the rest of your Monday. There may be a few puffy clouds popping up later, with maybe a quick sprinkle? No worries here, it will not cancel any outdoor activities. It will be in the upper 70’s today. Tonight looks clear and on the cool side. Lows will dip into the 50’s in suburbia and the countryside, but remain in the low 60’s in urban areas. Expect sunny, dry, beautiful weather for your Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Highs will be in the lower 80’s each day. Watch for the humidity to increase on Thursday, with building clouds and a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm, it will be warmer, with highs in the upper 80’s. Right now, Friday and Saturday look mostly sunny and dry, with highs in the upper 70’s to low 80’s. I’m keeping Saturday dry for now, however, if Irene speeds up a bit, it may cloud over with the threat of showers late. Sunday is the day we have to watch. At this point, it looks as if Irene will make landfall somewhere along the southeast coast during Saturday. At that point it appears as if the storm will head due north slamming into New England sometime Sunday. Right now I am not forecasting a hurricane. However, if Irene were to sustain a circulation, it may be a strong tropical storm when it arrives. I am forcasting the possibility of flooding rains and gusty winds on Sunday. If Irene were to move a little more to the east and give the Carolinas just a glancing blow, then we may be dealing with a more significant storm on our hands. As it is, it does bear watching, and I will update this blog if necessary later this week…so stay tuned!

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will be not only be giving a forecast for the all important Labor Day weekend, but also giving a sneak peek at what the fall may have in store for us! In the meantime, we have alot to get through before then! Enjoy the nice climate we have going on for this week, next week, it may the climate from some part of the world that we’re not too fond of!

Pete

Mid-August nor’easter…8/15/11

At this point, I don’t think I need to tell you again that we are in a wet weather pattern. It’s a shame, because up until the beginning of August, I was rating this summer right up there with last summer in terms of the weather. It seemed as if every weekend this summer was sunny and hot. It goes to show us that all streaks come to an end at some point. Whether you’re on a bad luck streak, good luck, winning , losing, good weather, bad weather, it always changes…streaks end, and we start all over again. Well, I did forecast this summer will not be the same as the endless summer of last year, so we shouldn’t be entirely shocked. Recently, however, the pattern has turned downright ugly. Yes, we did manage to squeek by this past weekend without much rain. The same could not be said for people living in New York City however. Yesterday, the New York area was drenched with an amazing 7 to 10 inches of rain! Talking about a washout! This slowly developing nor’easter, yes, I did say nor’easter, will be the same storm to soak eastern New England with 2 to 3 inches of rain from today into tomorrow morning. It’s not unprecedented to have a nor’easter this time of the year, but after such a hot, dry July, it is quite unusual. I will talk more about this storm, and what the weather may be like for the rest of the week later in  my forecast.

So what about the weather for the rest of the summer? Should we begin plans to start building an Ark? Well, it may not be far from the truth. It now appears as if we may be in for a record wet August for some of us. I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but we are in a wet weather pattern here in New England. Looking at the long range guidance, the storms seem to just keep coming. After today’s storm, more wet weather appears in the cards for the end of this week. Then next week could get even more interesting. Some computer models are suggesting possibly a tropical type of system getting entrained into the pattern to really cause concern for flooding. This forecast has merit. I have seen patterns just as this one produce prolific amounts of precipitation. With the jet stream configured south to north the way it is, it may be able to pull a tropical sysytem off the southeast coast up into New England. In addition, the weather may get excessively muggy the last two weeks of August, making for a uncomfortable stretch of weather. Dehumidifiers will be in high demand, so stop by the store and pick one up!

Now for the tropical update. Hurricane season is about to kick into high gear. From now until the end of September, tropical storms and hurricanes will making news in the weather department. Hurricane season peaks around September 10th on average. Right now, tropical storm Gert developed over the weekend, it may take a swipe at Bermuda, otherwise it will curve northeast out to sea. So far, we’ve been lucky. As we move deeper into the season, I expect hurricane activity to increase and threaten the U.S. coast. Remember, it only takes one strike to cause a catastrophic event. In 1992, only one hurricane struck the U.S. that year. That stormed was named Andrew, the last category 5 storm to hit the U.S. causing catastrophic damage.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. Despite all of the rain, we will have a couple nice days this week. Nonetheless, this weeks rating will be a 5 out of 10. Look for a washout this afternoon, with periods of heavy rain, and dropping temperatures as winds increase out of the northeast, bringing cooler air from Maine into eastern Massachusetts. Temoeratures may drop into the lower 60’s by days end. Expect all outdoor activities to be postponed tonight as rain and wind continue. It will chilly, with lows in the upper 50’s. Tuesday will start off with damp weather, but watch for slowly improving weather during the afternoon. If the sun comes out, look for temperatures to rebound into the low 70’s. Tuesday night looks O.K. for outdoor activities, with lows in the 60’s. Expect the best days  to be Wednesday and Thursday this week. Both days should feature sunny and warmer weather, with highs mainly in the 80’s. Right now, it appears as if more unsettled weather is going to move into New England from Friday through Sunday. It will not be raining all of the time, and with any luck, we may squeeze out a half decent day on Friday, and then again on Sunday.

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor the possibilty of a major storm hitting New England some time next week…so stay tuned! In the meantime, be prepared for anything that New England weather may throw at us, in most cases, watch for the curve ball!

Pete

Time to mow the lawns! 8/8/11

It’s amazing how quickly weather patterns change here in New England. Last week, I was looking over the long range outlook for August and thinking that it may be similar to July’s weather…not!!  After reviewing the maps this morning, the pattern doesn’t resemble July at all! Yesterday’s widespread 2 to 3″ of rain here in eastern Massachusetts put an end to any talk of drought this summer. For those who love the hot, dry weather, this is not good news. However, there is good number of people out there who welcome the rain and cooler temperatures. People who run landscaping companies depend on rain to continue to mow grass through the summer. Gardeners also welcome the wet weather to ensure healthy gardens into the fall. Farmers also need help from Mother Nature to help keep the crops from drying out. Same goes in the winter months, as snow plow driver’s, and ski resort operators depend on snow as part of their income. Everything happens for a reason, and the pattern change is part of earth’s dynamic weather system that’s always in a state of balance. It appears as if summer 2011 is going to appease  everyone when all is said and done!

So why the abrupt change in August? It appears as if the La Nina pattern which we have been in since the start of February is beginning to break down. This is the pattern which led to our record hot July across the country and New England. Does this mean summer is over? I don’t believe so. However, the incredible weather of July does not appear to be coming back. According to some of the long range computer models, we will be in a very active weather pattern  for the next 2 weeks. The northern jet stream, which has been dormant for the past 6 months, has come alive, and will be sending storms and cooler weather across the northern tier of the United States, including New England. It will not be raining all of the time! However, do expect rain every few days in a pattern like this. After that, towards the end of August, the pattern may begin to relax again, bringing  warmer, drier weather as we head into September.

Not much going on in the tropics again this morning. Tropical storm Emily near Florida never did make it up to hurricane strength. Emily hung in there, but eventually wind shear in the upper atmosphere tore her apart, and she could not regain tropical storm status after that. Despite the slow start, don’t be fooled, hurricane season is just getting started. There is a tropical wave coming off Africa that will need to be monitored in the coming days. Expect hurricane season to rapidly intensify over the next couple of weeks. The recent global pattern shift is one that will not bring a hurricane up to New England, however, it does leave the southeast part of the U.S. exposed for a hit.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity weather forecast. I’m rating this week a 6 out of 10 on the weather scale. For the rest of your Monday, expect any sunshine to yield to rapidly building clouds with showers and thuderstorms to develop this afternoon. It will be muggy, with highs in the mid 70’s at the beaches, to low 80’s inland. The showers will be focused on what is called a coastal front. This is where the sea breeze from the ocean, meets the warm, muggy air just inland from the coast. Where these two air masses collide, you can expect torrential downpours and urban street flooding. So where will this be? These typically develop around towns located near Rt. 128, but can also develop in  interior south shore communities. This activity will diminish with the loss of daytime heating, so expect clearing skies later this evening, but it will still be muggy, with lows in the upper 60’s. Tuesday will feature more sun than today, but watch for some afternoon increasing cloudiness, it will still be warm and muggy, with highs near 80. Tuesday evening should be dry for any outdoor activities, but expect rain to move in from the southwest any time after midnight. Look for a very wet start to Wednesday, with heavy rains, and possibly a thunderstorm. Expect slowly improving weather during the afternnon, but watch for one more thunderstorm before the day is through. Needless to say, this will not be a beach day. Much like last week, expect Thursday and Friday to be the pick of the week with a refreshing air mass invading New England. Look for mostly to partly sunny skies with temperatures in the 70’s during the day and 50’s to lower 60’s at night, good sleeping weather. Right now, next weekend looks like a split decision. Saturday looks to be a very nice day, with sunny skies and warmer temperatures, in the 80’s. At this point, Sunday does not look to be as nice. A system may rapidly move into New England, spreading clouds in and rain by the afternoon. This could change this far out! 

Well that’s about it for now. In next weeks blog, I hope to have better news in regards to our new weather pattern. I hope we can squeeze out another few weeks of good weather around here.I will talk about that, and also give my weekly tropical update. In the meantime, don’t forget about the upcoming Massachusetts sales tax holiday weekend, that will be held this weekend August 13th and 14th. With the economy floundering, this will be a good time to shop for a big ticket item and not pay the sales tax! Harrison Refrigeration will be open both days, just in case you need a new appliance! Otherwise, if you don’t decide to go shopping, you will need to mow the lawn come next Saturday!

Pete

Rolling into August…8/1/11

Don’t let the date scare you, we are not even remotely close to the end of summer. Yes, this is the last month of meteorologic summer, but astronomically, we are just coming up to the half way point. After quite the winter punch, this summer has delivered an equally impressive blow. With June and July in the books, it actually has turned out to be a hotter and drier pattern than what even I expected! I don’t have the exact numbers for July, but I do know that it has averaged above the long term average making this our second hot july in a row. It also appeared a bit drier than normal from what I could tell. So far, we have not received some of the beneficial thunderstorms which drench our area in the summer months. Last summer, although the warmest on record, we also benefited from some widespread torrential downpours, keeping our lawns and gardens from drying up.

So what about this August? Is the hot, dry pattern going to continue? I wish I had a clear answer for you, but I will try my best. Unlike last year, where the longterm patterns were quite stable, this year is different. Where last year La Nina was building, this summer, it appears to be fading…slowly. This has implications on the current pattern, and the pattern going into the fall. Since the beginning of last February, the pattern across the country has been overwhelmingly a La Nina pattern. Cold in the Pacific northwest, and warm in the middle of the country and the southeast. This bubble of heat has expanded to include New England at times, especially in July. So what does this all mean? Well, La Nina appears to be fading, but the same pattern continues to persist. So with hot weather to our south, and cooler to our north, New England appears to be cought right in the middle somewhere. So the way I see it, I think August will turn out much like July did. Overall, I am expecting bursts of hot weather, to be offset with times of cooler, drier weather. Rainfall is even tougher to predict, so I’m going to go with the trend of drier than normal weather into September.

My short New England summer trips brought me down to Cape Cod this past weekend, to Chatham. I have the good fortune of having very good friends and family owning homes at some of the most beautiful spots in New England!  Not only is Chatham one of the most charming towns in New England, but its geologic location makes it one of the most dynamic areas along the east coast for people interested in the study of coastal zone management, meteorology, and anything to do with marine, wildlife, art, fishing and photograghy! Did I also mention the vivid view of the Milky Way at night? Extending out 40 miles from the mainland, Chatham is the eastern most point in our state. This makes it susceptible to severe storms, pounding waves and a rapidly changing coastline due to beach erosion. As my friend and I peered out into the Atlantic Ocean off of Lighthouse Beach, he pointed out to me several areas that had once been protected by barrier islands, now were breached due to two major nor’easters, one back in 1987, and another as recent as 2007. Finally, a trip to Chatham would not have been complete without seeing some harbor seals. Yes, they were out there, and plenty of them!

Now onto your weekly forecast. With today already in the books, I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Look for a slightly cooler day for your Tuesday, with partly sunny skies, and a chance of a afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs will generally be in the 80’s, maybe 90 in a few locations. Tusday night should be pleasant if you are going to the Red Sox game, no jacket needed. Watch for cloudy weather for Wednesday, especially from the Boston area on south. There may be some light showers along the south coast and the Cape in the morning. Clearing skies will move into the area from north to south as the day progresses. It will be noticeably cooler Wednesday, with highs mostly in the 70’s. Look for mostly sunny, warm and dry weather for Thursday and Friday, with highs around 80. Right now, the weekend does not look as nice as this past weekend. Things could change this far out, but it appears as if a system may bring some showers to the area during the middle of the weekend. If the timing works out, it may be wet just for Saturday night, with improving weather for your Sunday. We shall see!

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will update the tropics to see if anything is brewing. We may have an aspiring meteoroligists on our hands, as my friends son has shown a keen interest in tropical storms and hurricanes. Judging by his current knowledge in the field, we may be looking at the next National Hurricane Center director a few years down the line! In the meantime, let’s hope the good weather keeps rolling on for the second part of summer!

Pete

Hottest day since 1926! 7/25/11

If you thought  last Friday was the hottest day that you ever felt…you were right! On Friday the temperature reached a scorching 103 degrees in Boston. This tied the record of 103 set back in 1926. This also was the second hottest day ever recorded in Boston. The hottest day still stands at 104 degrees set back on July 4th, 1911. Nevertheless, this four day heatwave was very impressive by my standards for here in New England. As stated in earlier blogs, we are fortunate that we live in New England. While we get a refreshing break from the intense heat and humidity, areas to our south and west have no such luck. These locations will continue to have temperatures near 100 degrees with stifling humidity. In fact, some places across the middle of the country has had close to 40 days of temperatures of 100 + degrees! Due to the fact that we have the Atlantic ocean to our east, and Canada to our north, this type of heat cannot be sustained here in New England. With that being said, friends of mine have been asking me whether we can expect more of this type of heat this summer. The short answer to this question is yes! While I believe the most intense heat may have peaked last Friday, I do think that we are in for more hot spells as we move through August. Will we reach 100 degrees again? Boston has reached 100 degrees only 25 times in the last century. However, it’s possible with this type of heat lurking just to our south. Remember, the heat wave isn’t gone, it just got surpressed to our south temporarily.

So where did my short trips bring me this weekend? Well yesterday I spent the afternoon with good friends of mine down at Nantasket Beach. If there was any day that had a split personality weatherwise, it was yesterday! While the first part of the day was cloudy even with some light showers, the second part of the day featured brilliant sunshine, with a nice breeze blowing off of the ocean. After grabbing a quick bite to eat, we decided to head back onto the beach to catch some late afternoon sun. The day was capped off by a post card material sunset! With its open ocean landscape, plenty of places to eat,  Nantasket Beach continues to be a favorite summertime destination for young and old alike!

Not much going on right now in the tropics. As we move deeper into the summer, expect the tropics to light up with action. Although hurricane season runs from June 1 st to November 30th, the peak of the season is August and September. I was asked yesterday by one of my friends whether I thought New England may get hit by a hurricane this season? With such warm water sitting off of the Atlantic this summer, the fact that we are overdue for a tropical storm, and a drier than normal summer so far, you do have to wonder whether this will be the year. As always, I will be looking out for this potential as we move deeper into hurricane season.

Now on to your weekly outdoor summer forecast. Expect this week to be another good week for vacationers. I will give this week an 8 out of 10. So far, I would say this has been a great summer weatherwise! Look for the rest of your Monday to feature more clouds than sun. Temperatures will be tolerable, with highs around 80. Watch for showers and possibly a thunderstorm to move across the area tonight in association with a low pressure area. You may get through the evening with any outdoor activities, but it may be cutting it close. Expect rain anytime after 8 p.m. Look for any showers to be exiting the region first thing Tuesday, with a mix of sun and clouds to follow. There will be a pocket of cold air aloft moving through the area in the afternoon (mainly to the north), but this may trigger a pop up shower or thunderstorm? Temperatures will be in the upper 70’s. Tuesday evening and night will be dry and comfortable. Watch for Wednesday to be fine day, with mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures, with highs in the mid 80’s. Wednesday night will be fine for outdoor stuff. Expect the humidity to build somewhat on Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 80’s. There may be enough lift in the atmosphere for a typical summertime thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening ( about a 40% chance). Friday will be a hot and humid day with highs reaching the lower 90’s with a 50% chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. As it looks from now, there may be a lingering shower first thing Saturday, otherwise expect a very summery weekend, with highs near 90 Saturday and mid to upper 80’s Sunday with plenty of sun.

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will preview what kind of weather we might expect for the month of August. I will also review the weather we had in July, and how it compared to averages. I will also let you know where my next short trip around New England brings me, so stay tuned! In the meantime, enjoy the headline of today’s blog, in five short months from now, it may read the exact opposite!

Pete

The heat is on! 7/18/11

I hope everyone got to enjoy yet another beautiful summer weekend here in New England! Whether you were in the mountains, or on the seashore, this weekend brought everything what a great summer pattern typically brings to us here in New England. While last weekend I spent Sunday at Duxbury Beach, this weekend I headed north to visit in my sister and brother in law in southern New Hampshire. As it turned out, yesterday, much like last Sunday, turned out to be another perfect 10 beach day. As we headed out toward a beach on the sea coast of New Hampshire, it was no surprise to see the beach jam packed with people. Scoping out the landscape, we decided to pack up the Jeep and head north to a small beach called York Harbor Beach in Maine…what a find! Not only was it less crowded, but the picturesque beauty of the beach reminded me of the rustic charm New England has to offer. It is important to note, though the ocean was about ten degrees cooler than Duxbury, it still was very refreshing and above normal for Maine standards! One final note about our means of transportation yesterday. Yes, we rode in my brother in laws Jeep yesterday, but this isn’t your typical Jeep. The name of this Jeep is The Defender. He calls it the beast, and for good reason! Not only is this vehicle twice as big as your typical Jeep, but it also sounds as mean as its name! This vehicle is built for adventure, and only added to the excitement of the day!

Climatalogically speaking, we are now in entering  the warmest period of the year. Looking at the weather charts this morning, the weather looks to follow right on cue this week. Typically, our warmest averages occur during the summer months in a 45 day stretch, from about July 1 st to approximately August 15 th. Last week I talked about the massive heatwave in the middle of the country. I also talked about how it wouldn’t take much of a small shift in the steering currents to send some of that heat our way. Well it now appears as if that’s just what may happen at the end of this week. We are not going to get 30 days of 100+ degree weather coming our way. However, I would not be surprised to see widespread temperatures of close to 100 degrees around here by Friday. As is typical, heat like this does not last for long around here. I will go over the impending heat wave in my forecast.

Before I get to my forecast, I did want to inform you of the formation of our second tropical storm of the season over the weekend. Tropical storm Bret has formed over the Gulf Stream just east of Florida. This storm is not expected to intensify into a hurricane, however it may get up to 60 m.p.h. strength. This storm is expected to move northeast passing well southeast of New England…it’s only the beginning.

Now for your weekly outdoor forecast. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Not because of lousy weather, but more so because of the intense heat expected later this week. Expect muggy conditions for the rest of your Monday. As of this writing here in southern N.H. showers are occurring. Expect these showers to move through Boston early this afternoon. Later today, there may be another round of showers and possibly some thunderstorms moving through the area, so this can impact your evening plans. If we get enough sun, temp.’s may approach 90. Watch for slightly cooler weather for your Tuesday, with partly sunny weather and also a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. It will be warm, with temperatures in the mid 80’s. Tuesday evening should be pleasant, with lows in the mid 60’s. Look for the heat and  humidity to begin to build on Wednesday, with sunny skies and temperatures near 90. Temperatures will really get cooking on Thursday, highs will range from between 95 and 100 degrees! With humidity! Expect similar weather on Friday, with extreme heat for New England, with widespread temperatures near 100 degrees! With all that heat, and a approaching front, there may be a nasty thunderstorm or two rumbling through the area later in the afternoon. At this point, Saturday still looks hot, with highs  “only”  about 90, with sunny skies. Sunday looks to be a nice day as well, with temperatures holding in the 80’s with sunny skies.

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will see if the hot weather of late is going to continue into last week of July. I will also scan the tropics to see if any additional tropical storms are forming. I may even talk about the latest long range computer forecasts which look into the fall season. You never know what else I may decide to talk about so please check back! In the meantime, make sure to keep hydrated, seek air conditioning, a pool, or the beach later this week as the heat will be on!

Pete

Spectacular weather to continue…7/11/11

I hope everyone had a great 4th of July weekend! Aside from last sunday being a little shaky, I think the forecast worked out quite well. I know the weather will be what it is, but I do believe the weather on the 4th of July tends to set a presidence for the rest of the summer. In fact, since the 4th, we have been on a streak of beautiful summertime weather here in New England. It’s not like this everywhere though. While New England enjoys refreshing breaks time to time from Canada, the south central states such as Texas, Kansas, and Oklahoma are in the midst of a blistering mid summer heat wave. It has been over 100 degrees everyday for nearly two weeks now! In addition, how about adding oppressive humidity to that kind of heat! Yes, they are having dew points (measurement of the amount of moisture in the air) in the 70’s! I don’t think anyone has ever seen the combination of heat + humidity such as this in many, many years…or ever! Meanwhile, here in New England, our weather pattern couldn’t be more pleasant! We seem to be caught in between the two extremes. The way the jet stream is configured, it’s protecting us from the extreme heat, but we’re close enough to enjoy very warm, dry weather pattern!

With all being said, some people are asking me if this intense heat wave has any shot at coming up here to New England. The quick answer to this question is no. We will never have two weeks of 100+ degree weather here in New England. That’s the beauty of the climate here. We do have extremes, but because we have the Atlantic ocean right next to us, this helps to temper the extremes. Yes, with such extreme heat not too far away from us to our southwest, it won’t take much for the steering currents to bend slightly for a taste of that heat to visit us. In fact, it’s happening this week. Some of that heat will sneak into southern New England the first two days of the week, before a refreshing air mass arrives mid-week. I will go over this in my weekly forecast shortly.

Before I get to the weekly forecast, I did want to briefly look back at what turned out to be a top ten weekend weatherwise. I don’t know if any of you had a chance at getting out to the beach this weekend, but I was lucky enough to be at Duxbury Beach yesterday with my brother and his family. Not only was there 100% of the possible sunshine, but more importantly, I wanted to talk about just how warm the ocean was yesterday! As you know, I rarely go into the water if it’s anything less than 70 degrees (I know, I’m a bit of a wuss when it comes to that!) This is especially true with beaches on the north side of the Cape. Typically, I enjoy going into the water at Old Silver Beach in Falmouth. When we arrived yesterday, and I saw my niece and nephew go bombing into the caribbean green colored water like there was no tomorrow, I said to myself, how is that possible? Most of the time, the feet turn blue as you stand in ankle deep water! I estimated the water being at approximatley 72 to possibly even as high as 75 degrees. So how could this be possible? I believe it was the perfect combination of many warm sunny days, followed by a local seabreeze yesterday. This onshore wind, blows the warm water pooling out in the ocean, close to the shore. Subsequently, the cold water goes underneath the warm water, and pools out in the deeper ocean. The reverse happens when we have a strong offshore wind. A good friend of mine at the gym told me his father used to tell him it all depends which way the wind blows here in New England…he was right!

Now onto the outdoor weekly weather forecast. If you have vacation this week, I have good news for you! This forecast is going to be easy. This week will be rated a 10 out of 10. Expect a chance of a thunderstorm on Tuesday afternoon, maybe a quick shower on Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, today and tomorrow will feature increasing heat and humidity, with highs near 90 today, and near 92 tomorrow. Look for dryer but still very warm weather to resume from Wednesday through next weekend, with highs mainly in the 80’s, with low humidity.

Well that’s about it for now. In my blog next week, I will look at what the rest of July will have in store for us weatherwise. Iwill also update you on the tropics, which have been quiet so far (still very early). In the meantime, try and get out there to enjoy this spectacular summer weather. Need I remind you what was going on here just six months ago? Ahh, I knew that would do it!

Pete

A Star Spangled Banner forecast!! 6/30/11

After reviewing the latest weather data, I’m happy to report that the weather for the upcoming 4th of July holiday weekend looks just about perfect from mountaintop to seashore! After a tough winter, and a spring filled with clouds and rain, we deserve nice weather for a change. Then again, as I have said in the past, it doesn’t matter what we think we deserve, Mother Nature ultimately has the final say with the weather, and we have to deal with it whether we like it or not! In this case, the weather god’s will be treating us with a fine stretch of weather across New England. Let’s break it down day by day. Look for Friday to feature sun mixed with some clouds, there may be a slight chance of a shower, but overall it will be a nice day, with highs in the lower 80’s. Expect pleasant weather Friday night, with lows in the 60’s. Watch for warmer & more humid weather Saturday, with mostly to partly sunny skies, highs will reach the mid 80’s. There may be a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the building heat Saturday evening into the night, especially across the interior. Otherwise, expect muggy weather to be the theme Saturday night, but not oppressive. Sunday may be the hottest of the holiday weekend, with temperatures in the 85 to 90 degree range. Watch for some natural fireworks (scattered thunderstorms) late in the afternoon. This will not be a washout by any means, just typical summertime weather, with building afternoon heat and a front approaching from the west. The best chance for a thunderstorm will be from the Boston area north and west. The best day may be saved for the 4th itself! Expect the front to whisk off the coast early, leaving behind a dryer, sunny & very warm day. With a brisk west wind, expect temperatures to warm up well into the upper 80’s, even at the beaches! What a beach day! Expect some of the nicest weather in years for all of the firework displays going on throughout New England, with clear skies, light winds, and warm temperatures!

Well that’s about it for now. Since the holiday falls on Monday this year, it’s possible I may not post. I will be down the Cape with family and may not have access to a computer. Regardless of whether I post or not, I would like to wish all of my friends who follow the blog a happy 4th of July weekend! Be safe, and enjoy the summer weather ahead!

Pete

Change for the better! 6/27/11

Last week at this time, we were starting summer off in style, with two top 10 days. If Monday wasn’t perfect, Tuesday, the first day of summer, was a gem that only Mother Nature could of drawn up. Come Wednesday, however, it’s like a light switch went off. Like some uninvited person crashing a good party. Like throwing an ice cold towel on your body, after a hot shower. Well, you get the picture! Everyone in the weather business, including myself, was surprised just how fast the weather went downhill last week. I called for a 7 out of 10 on the outdoor scale, but it really ended up being a 4 out of 10, weighted heavily on the first two days of the week, and also Sunday, which turned out to be an o.k. day. You would think, now that we are officialy into summer, that the weather would finally begin to cooperate now. Unfortunately, we have no control over these things, and we must just deal with what’s given to us! In the study of weather and meteorology, it’s always easier to look back to see what happened, than to predict the future! So what did happen? Well, it appears as if the ocean to our east, is not warming up as quick as it normally does this time of the year. This is causing all sorts of havoc with the way weather systems are moving in our atmosphere. Weather systems still seem to be stuck in winter mode. That pesky North Atlantic block which governs our weather here in New England, continues to foul up our weather, even as we head into summer. This has alot to do with latent heating, with the ocean taking its own sweet time to warm up this year. In the end, we suffer the consequences here in eastern New England, with stretches of cold, damp weather.

So you may ask, Pete, is this how the whole summer is going to play out? Two nice days, followed by five nasty ones with cold east winds! I don’t believe so. Let me remind you one more time however, this is not last summer! Patterns this year are much more unstable, and changeable. Nevertheless, I am expecting ocean waters to continue to warm up, and a better “late” summer to encompass New England as we head into August and September. Overall, I still am expecting my forecast of a “normal” summer to be the right call. It is troubling to look at some of the long range computer forecasts as of late. What once looked like a massive heat wave pouring into New England come fourth of July time, has now backed off on this idea, and has subsequently squashed this idea to areas to our south and west. To some, this is bad news. To others, this news comes with welcome relief! For me, hot weather is a double edged sword. Heat waves creates high demand for air conditioning, and stresses old refrigerators. On the other hand, hot weather tends to make me lethargic, and not think straight! Going through such a long stretch of crummy weather this spring, I could go for a heat wave or two this summer, just to balance things out. Looking ahead, it doesn’t look like any heat waves this week, but I suspect we will get one or two stretches of 90 + degree heat come July.

We are now within reach of the all important fourth of July weekend, so how’s the weather shaping up for this week? I’m going to give this week an 8 out of 10. I believe the weather is going to be much nicer than last week (that’s not saying much!). Look for the rest of your Monday to feature more sun than clouds, with just an isolated risk of an afternoon pop up shower, do not cancel plans! Temperatures will be nice, with highs finally getting back to average, around 80 degrees. Expect a pleasnat evening, with late night lows around 60. Tomorrow will not be as spectacular as last Tuesday, expect more clouds than sun, especially later in the day. It will be on the warm side, with highs in the lower 80’s. Look for showers to move into the region after 10 p.m. with possibly some late night thunder along with heavy downpours. Expect some lingering showers for the first part of your Wednesday, with skies slowly clearing during the afternnon. Temperatures will rebound to the mid 70’s. Right now, Thursday and Friday look to be pleasant days, with highs in the 80’s, of course that’s what I said last week too! Anyway, looking ahead to the big holiday weekend, right now, I’m going to be on the optimistic side, and say that most of the weekend will be nice. There is going to be a wavy front in the area, with hot humid weather to our south, and cool weather to our north, so it won’t be perfect. There may be some showers and thunderstorms here and there, but at this point it doesn’t look to be any washouts. This will hold true right into the 4th itself. I will be doing a special holiday update to this forecast come Thursday or Friday, so check back with me for the latest!

Well that’s about it for now. In next weeks blog I will review how the weather turned out for June, and preview what July may have in store for us. In the mean time, we all know making changes in life can be hard to do sometimes, so let Mother Nature take care of this weeks change for the better, and let us take a break to enjoy it! HAPPY FOURTH OF JULY TO EVERYONE!!

Pete