Boston: City of champions! 6/20/11

I hope everyone had a nice Father’s Day yesterday! I am very pleased that the weather turned out to be beautiful over the whole weekend! Due to all of the exciting events around the region recently, I decided to write a blog with a bit of a different theme this morning.

Boston is a great city to live in, we all know that! But what makes Boston possibly the BEST city to live in the world? First, I will admit, I have not travelled the world and visited many other cities, so I will just have to go on what believe is the truth. As far as our climate goes, Boston lies in a very unique spot geographically. We live in the northeast part of the country, with the Atlantic ocean to our east, Canada to our north, and the tropics to our south. We live exactly between the North Pole and the Equator. Put all of this together and you get a climate to please just about everyone at one point or another during the course of the year! Our weather is fascinating! Where else can you get a climate like California (mediteranean), Alaska (arctic), Florida (tropical), Arizona (desert!), all within a couple of days sometimes! How about our proximity to some of the best beaches in the country? We have beautiful Cape Cod and the Islands just to our south, or historic Gloucester, Rockport regions just our north! In Addition, you don’t have to drive too far to enjoy the beautiful countryside and the majestic White Mountains of New Hampshire! From secluded beaches in the summer, stunning  foliage in the fall, to skiing in the winter, we have it all!

That’s not all! After this weekend, we are also the city of champions! Boston has won four sports championships in the last seven year! This has never been done before in any other city!  With the Bruins winning the Stanley Cup last week, the city has come together like no other time in history. Yes, we do have our problems, but what other city can you assemble 1.3 million people together, and only have 9 infractions! I personally was  at the “rolling rally” Saturday, and I must say, I have never seen quite a celebration such as this one! Not that all the other sports teams don’t care about their fans, but there’s something special about this Bruins team and the connection it has with their fans. These players get it. They won the Stanley Cup not only for themselves, but for the organization,  and  for the longtime dedicated fans throughout the region. And the fans reciprocated, by coming out, behaving, and celebrating the championship in style! It’s hard to believe, but other cities (Vancouver) need to look at Boston as an example on how to conduct yourselves in victory and in defeat! The celebration didn’t stop there, as yesterday, the Red Sox opened Fenway Park to the Bruins, joining the two different sports in a classy show of unity. There’s no doubt about it, life is all about the ups and downs. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, but one thing the Bruins all showed us, is to never give up!

Now on to your outdoor weekly weather forecast. I will give this week a 7 out of 10. Overall, expect another nice week of weather on the way! Look for beautiful weather for the rest of your Monday, with mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures. Highs will be near 80 degrees. Pleasant conditions will rule the weather for any outdoor activities tonight. Tuesday will be another fine day, with sunny skies along with some clouds. It will be a little warmer, especially inland, with highs near 85 inland. Along the beaches, look for a cooling seabreeze to hold temperatures back to the mid 70’s. Still a nice beach day though. Remember, Tuesday is the official first day of summer, coming in at 1:21 p.m.! Tuesday night will be nice again, with lows in the 50’s and lower 60’s, no rain. Expect Wednesday to be a decent day as well. Look for a mix of clouds and sun with temperatures in the lower 80’s. There is a 30% chance of a afternoon shower or thundershower across the area, but no wash out. Wednesday evening may feature a couple of showers, but it shouldn’t be anything serious. Starting on Thursday through Saturday, the weather forecast turns a bit iffy. It will be more humid and summery, with warm temperatures, and some sun. There also is the chance of some showers and thunderstorms across the area. I would say don’t cancel any plans right now, but do expect some wet weather from time to time. If we are lucky, the front will clear the area for a dryer day on Sunday, under sunny skies. If the front does not clear the coast, expect a muggy day with sun and cloud mix, with a chance of an afternnon thunderstorm again.

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will take another look at the summer forecast, and see if I need to change my thoughts on that. Right now, I like the forecast I have out for the summer. I will also share with you what some of the long range computer models are saying for late summer, early fall. So check back, because you never know what else I will feel like talking about come next week! In the meantime, enjoy the time now as the city of champions, because just like New England weather, it will change!

Peter

June swoon…6/13/11

Just when you thought that we were out of the woods, the summer party came to a crashing end this past weekend. Last week at this time, yours truly was forecasting a highly rated weather week on the way. True, the first part of the week lived up to its billing, with very warm to hot weather dominating the area. However, after temperatures in the 90’s on Thursday, many of us heard the heat click on Saturday night, with a soaking cold rain falling. Temperatures around the region were a full 20 to 30 degrees below average. This was a far cry from the sunny, warm weather which I was forecasting for this past weekend. Sorry about that! What can I say? This pattern is still very unpredictable! That pesky North Atlantic block keeps popping up this spring, frequently fouling up our weather! Speaking of spring, technically, we are still in it. Remember, the summer solstice does not happen until June 21st. This is important, because summer patterns often do not settle in until we reach the solstice. What a weekend though! It would of been a fine weekend for November standards! Brrrr!!!

So is this the fate for summer 2011? Will we be wearing jackets for 4th of July? I don’t believe so! Many times in June, leftover patterns from the springtime and even winter can linger well into the month. This is where the latent effect that I have talked about comes into play. The oceans take longer than the landmass to warm up over the course of the spring, resulting in chilling seabreezes and drizzly damp weather for us here in eastern New England. Yes, bursts of warm weather do visit us from time to time, however, do to our latitude and our proximity to the North Atlantic ocean, these warm spells are often short lived. As we move deeper into the summer, the oceans begin to warm up, and the opposite happens. Warmer weather lasts longer, and cool spells are short lived. This is why some of our best weather happens during the month of September here in New England. Also remember, as posted in previous blogs, this will not be summer 2010!  I am expecting a summer of great variability, with warm spells and cool spells, ultimately averaging out to a fairly normal summer weatherwise. As we move forward, expect improving weather for June, especially after this week. In fact, looking at some of the new long range forecasts, summer may come in full force as we head towards the week of the 4th of July!

How about the weather for this week? I’m giving this week a 6 out of 10. Look for mostly cloudy skies to dominate the weather from today through Wednesday. It will not be cloudy all of the time, we may see some breaks of sun today, and then again later Wednesday. Expect it to be cool, with well below normal temperatures, especially near the coast. It will be a little warmer than this past weekend, with highs mainly in the low 60’s. Despite the cloudy, cool weather, I don’t believe it will rain too much. Best chances of some showers are later today and tonight,  later Tuesday afternoon and night, and Wednesday morning. It does not appear to be any washouts, but do expect some damp weather. With any luck, skies will clear Wednesday evening to allow us to view the full “strawberry moon.” Thursday may turn out to be the nicest day of the week, with sunny skies and temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70’s. There may be another storm system approaching our area for Friday. It’s a little dificult to tell 100% right now, as this storm may also miss us to the south. If it doesn’t, expect showers to move into the area during the afternoon and continuing into Saturday morning. In any event, right now, with fingers crossed, Sunday should turn out to be a fine summer’s day, with sunny skies and warm temperatures…of course that’s what I said about this past Sunday!

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will review the weather from this past week, as well as look at what the first week of summer may bring us. So far, it’s been quiet in the tropics, so not much to talk about in that area. It’s still very early in the season for tropical storms, as we still have winterlike storms & ice hockey still being played in our area!  In the meantime, we can’t do nothing about what has happened in the past, but we can do something to change the future! Go Bruins!!!!

Pete

One extreme to another…6/6/11

I think everyone has heard of the saying, “March comes in like a lion, but goes out like a lamb.” What about for the month of June though? Last Wednesday, being June 1st, featured one of the most devastating tornado outbreak here in Massachusetts since possibly the great Worcester tornado back in 1953. After the National Weather Service out of Taunton, Ma. surveyed the damage, it was determined that a F3 tornado struck the Springfield, Brimfield, and Monson areas out in the western part of the state. So just what is a F3 tornado? As discussed in a previous blog, tornados are rated on a six tier severity index, also known as the Fujita scale. An F3 tornado is classified as a severe tornado, capable of producing winds of between 160 to up to 200 m.p.h.! This type of tornado is more commonly seen out in the midwest than here in Massachusetts. It is a tragedy that three people lost their lives, but based on the damage that I saw, we are very fortunate that many more lives were not lost last Wednesday. I was following the weather very closely that day, and I have to say, the National Weather Service out of Taunton, Ma. and the Severe Weather Prections Center out in Oklahoma city did a tremendous job in forecasting the possibility of the formation of tornados for that day. They were on top of it, and the watches/warnings were posted well out in advance of the storms. Had the warnings not been posted in advance, we may have been looking at another situation such as Worcester 1953. This was clearly a case of how the advancement of technology in the field of meteorology definitely made an impact in saving lives. Not to toot my own horn, but I too made a long range prediction back on the blog written  on April 25th forecasting of a tornado to strike New England. This has nothing to do with technology, but rather forecaster intuition!

So what’s next? After the hot start to summer last weekend, the tornados at midweek, New Englanders were scrambling for blankets and jackets at the end of last week and the beginning of the weekend! Although on the chilly side, the plus side of that was a stretch of clear, dry, sunny weather that lasted straight on through the weekend. It was a beautiful day to spend time with friends at the annual Corrib Pub 5K Road Race held at West Roxbury’s Billings Field yesterday. It was a beautiful day for  fans and runners alike, all for a good cause. With the cool weather of late, many people were asking me just what the heck was happening to our weather of late. Though I could of been a wise guy and asked them whether they have read my blog lately, I politely chatted with them about the past weather events and future summer patterns. I never turn down a conversation about the weather! A few things we chatted about that I would like to share with you. First, as I have said in the past, this summer is not last summer! Unlike last years “summer on steroids,” this year will feature more typical summer weather. Next, just because meteorologic summer bgan on June 1st, astronomic summer does not arrive until June 21st. This is important. Many times, true summer weather does not arrive in New England until the summer solstice arrives, it’s just the way Mother Nature works. I expect June to continue the pattern as of late, which is to feature a changeable, back and forth regime. This means we will have periods of hot summery weather, punctuated by cooler, drier weather, along with times of inclement weather. Overall, it will end up being a month with slightly above normal temperatures, and normal amounts of rain, which is around three inches.

Now for your outdoor weekly activity forecast. I am giving this week another 8 out of 10. Despite last weeks storms, I think everyone would agree that the weather was very nice overall. Look for a similar type of weather this week. Expect mostly sunny skies amidst some passing clouds for the rest of your Monday. Look for temperatures to average in the very low 70’s across the area, maybe a little cooler right along the coast. Tonight will be fine weather for any outdoor activities. Look for Tuesday to feature partly sunny skies and a little warmer, with highs near 80. Dry weather Tuesday night will make for pleasant outdoor activities. Wednesday will be a changeable type of day, as we transition from dry air to a much more humid airmass. As the hotter weather arrives, there may be some late afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the area. I do not expect tornados with these storms. However, you should always monitor latest forescast in case things change. Temperatures will be in the low 80’s on Wednesday. Look for the steam heat to pour into the area on Thursday, with highs in the lower 90’s, wow! With a front dangling across the area, and the high humidity, there is always a chance of a pop up thunderstorm. Expect hot and muggy weather to continue for your Friday, with highs near 90. The difference on Friday is that there will be a better chance of late afternoon and evening thunderstorms, some of which could be severe. Right now, next weekend may start off with some clouds on Saturday morning, but Saturday should turn into a fine day, with sunny skies, and cooler & drier weather, with highs in the upper 70’s. Look for similar weather for your Sunday, with sunny weather and warm temperatures.

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will take a look and see if there is any tropical activity on the horizon. I will also talk about the chances of a hurricane striking New England this year. So check in again, beacause you never know what else may happen in our world over the next week that I may feel like talking about! In the meantime, remember that the earth and atmosphere are alive, and it does not discriminate when it comes to extreme weather!

Pete

Summer salute! 5/30/11

Happy Memorial Day to everyone! Well, it took a while, but summer 2011 blasted into eastern Massachusetts this weekend with sunny skies and very warm temperatures. Just as I suspected, as with many years, this was a classic case of winter going straight into summer this year. Just remember, it was barely a week ago that we were shivering with the heat on in our homes? Yes, there is some considerable cloudiness this Memorial Day morning, but I expect improving conditions come this afternoon. It’s still on the very warm side. With that being said, I’m glad I took a trip down Nantasket beach yesterday to meet up with some good friends of mine. I don’t know if any of you made it to the beach, but it was a beauty of a beach day! It was a beach day that would of been perfect if it was in the middle of July, let alone the end of May! Looking back at my record keeping system called my brain, it’s not every year that we get to enjoy a very warm sunny day at the beach during the month of May! I don’t hear anyone complaining!

I must admit, I was a bit surprised at how strong summer came pouring into the area the past few days. So does this mean we are in for another hot summer this year? Not necessarily. Although I do hope of another warm and sunny summer, as I said in my forecast last week, this will not be summer 2010. However, looking over some new long range data, it does appear as if it may not be as cool or as wet as I previously thought. It all hinges on where summer patterns set up from about this time. Right now, having a summery weather pattern over the Memorial Day weekend is definitely a good sign! Unlike last summer, most summer patterns are very fickle to predict, with this one coming no exception. I like the forecast I put out last week for the summer. I do believe it will be cooler than last summer. Remember though, everythings relative. Cooler than last summer, may equal out to a normal summer around here, which can be pretty darn nice! If anything, I may raise the 90 degree average up, to 10 to 14 days, which is typical for around here. It may also be a bit drier than first thought, which will be nice for outdoor activities. I know this is good news for certain family members of mine, no names mentioned!

Before I talk a bit about the 2011 hurricane season, I quickly wanted to review spring 2011. Although it seemed like a cold wet spring, when you average out the three months consisting of spring, March, April and May, it actually turned out to be a bit warmer and a bit wetter than average! Yes, we did have miserable stretches, and it was cold at times, but there also has been stretches of warm weather, which outdueled the cold weather. All in all, it seemed to equal out to afairly average spring around here, without to many extremes. The one notable exception to this, was the lack of sunshine during May. I don’t have the final numbers, as this weekend may throw it off, but up to last week, it was one of the least sunny months of May on record!

Now onto the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricanes are amazing storms, although not my favorite subject of weather, I do know many people who are fascinated with these storms. According to NOAA, the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins tomorrow, June 1st, will feature an above average amount of storms this season. Normally, we can expect 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. This season, NOAA is expecting 12 to 18 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major ones. This is significant. With no major landfalls to the U.S. the past couple of years, I expect this year to much more active with damaging hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. With La Nina fading, and a continued warmer than normal Atlantic ocean, I too expect this season to be an above average one. In the coming weeks I will talk more about hurricanes and the possibilities of one striking New England. Look for the first named storm to be Arlene to happen sometime during late June.

Now onto your weekly outdoor activity forecast. I’m giving this week a 8 out of 10. In other words, nice summer weather on the way. Look for the rest of your Memorial Day to feature increasing sun, and very warm & muggy weather, with highs in the middle to upper 80’s. Look for a pop up thunderstorm or two around the area into this afternoon, but this is not a widespread event, and most barbecues should go off without a hitch this evening. Expect a cool front to slip throught the area tonight, with a wind shift towards morning. This cool front will shift winds over to the northeast for Tuesday, resulting in a cooler drier day, with highs near 70 close to the beaches, to mid to upper 70’s inland. The heat and humidity will spike Wednesday, with highs back into the 80’s, with a possible late afternnon and evening thunderstorm. Expect cooler weather again for your Thursday and Friday, with highs mainly in the 70’s. Although mostly dry, a shower or two cannot be ruled out during this time period. Right now, next Saturday looks a bit warmer with partly sunny weather, with highs near 80. It’s a long way off, but next Sunday could feature some thunderstorms across the area, with cooler temperatures arriving. This will not be a washout, but expect some rain at some point. I know there are alot of outdoor activities planned for that day, so I hope the weather works out for everyone!

Well that’s a bout it for now. And I thought that this was going to be a short blog! Oh well, there’s lots to talk about! In my next blog, I will take a look at what we might expect for the weather in the month of June. I will also discuss what New England’s chance of getting struck by a hurricane this year. I will also keep my out out for any heat waves that may develop. In the meantime, it’s time to salute the men and woman who are fighting and have fought for our country. It’s also time to salute the arrival of summer 2011, you’re marching in right in a nick of time!

Pete

Weather looking better! 5/25/11

With the Memorial Day weekend coming up, I wanted to give everybody an update on the latest forecast. After reviewing the latest information, it now appears as if our area will enjoy a more summery type weather pattern heading into the holiday. It won’t be perfect, but it now looks alot better than it did at the beginning of the week! The lousy weather that once looked as if it was going to move into our area over the weekend, now looks like it will be blocked far to our north and west. In addition, a high pressure area will build off of our coast, this will turn the circulation around to a southerly direction, bringing a warm and more humid airmass to us. A couple things to keep in mind. First, with the humid air moving across the waters south of New England, look for low clouds and fog to be persistant for the Cape and the Islands. These low clouds may even move up into the Boston area for a time, before the sun can burn it off. Second, with the muggy air mass in place, do expect a chance of a afternoon and evening thunderstorm on Saturday and possibly Sunday as well. As for the holiday itself, the front may move off the coast and we may be left with clearing skies, with pleasantly warm temperatures. I’m glad after such a crummy stretch of weather I can forecast some good news in the weather department!

Whatever you do this weekend, whether it’s taking a hike in the mountains, camping, going to the beach, or just hanging with family and friends, please don’t forget to remember those who have fought for our country, and those who were special to us. Happy Memorial Day!

Pete

Summer 2011… 5/23/11

A soggy scenerio…5/16/11

Now that I have finally been able to log on to my Word Press account (after nearly 2 hours), I’m now faced with the dilemma of telling everybody that the much anticipated north atlantic block that I was advertising for the spring has finally settled in. You ask, what does this mean, Pete? It means that I hope you enjoyed the sunshine we had last Friday, because we are certainly not going to see it for this week. In addition, cold northeast winds along the coast will make it feel more like March for the next couple of days. To further aggravate the situation, waves of rain will soak us from time to time for the foreseeable future! I was not kidding around when back in February I mentioned that the cruelest months for New Englanders were still ahead of us. So, any good news? I try to look at the glass half full, rather than half empty. Yes, later on in the week, the flow around the storm will come more from the south, rather than from the east, this will allow temperatures to warm back up, to perhaps seasonal levels. We may even see some breaks of sun beginning on Friday and into next weekend, I will go over this in the forecast. The Red Sox swept the Yankees over the weekend, finally evening their wins and losses for the season! Boston Bruins star player Patrice Bergeron is feeling better of late, and may be able to play in the Tampa series after all! So see, not all is doom and gloom! On the flip side, after all of this rain passes, you may be faced with a lawn to mow that is knee deep in places!

So why all of the rain and cool temperatures? Well for one, you can blame that large body of water to our east called the Atlantic ocean. Temperatures are still running only in the upper 40’s right now. As I have mentioned in previous blogs, a termed called latent effect, can be used well in this situation. Just as our autumns can sometimes have  summertime weather extend well into the fall, winter type weather patterns can also stick its nose into our summer. This is due to latent heating and cooling of the oceans. In other words, the land heats up quicker than the ocean in the spring, and cools off slower during the fall. This leads to cool air masses pooling over the maritimes north of New England. When we add a blocking pattern in the North Atlantic, it’s a recipe for stretches of cool, unsettled, rainy weather for us here in eastern New England. The players on the field is a high pressure area to the north of New England, circulating winds in a clockwise direction, and a stubborn area of low pressure south of New England, circulating winds in a counterclock direction. The combination of the two brings in a moist, cool flow straight off of the ocean. With water temperatures only in the upper 40’s…well, you get the picture. It’s nasty out there!

One more quick thing before I get to the forecast. Last week I did mention this being an important date in the weather timetable. For people who don’t like snow, it’s time to celebrate! About may 17th or so, is about the latest reported of snow falling around the Boston area. Further up north and in the mountains, it’s much later than that. So I won’t be mentioning snow in the blog until around next October or so!

Without further delay, let’s get to the weekly outdoor activity forecast. I’m giving this week a 2 out of 10. I believe this is one of the lowest rated weeks since I started the blog! This is a pretty straightforward forecast for me this week. For the rest of your Monday through Thursday, look for it to be cloudy, drizzly, foggy, windy, very rainy, and last but not least…damp. It won’t be a full blown nor’easter all of the time, however, many outdoor plans will be delayed or cancelled throughout the week. Look for temperatures to struggle to the low 50’s for today through Wednesday, this is well below normal for the date. Later in the week, with a more southerly flow, it may reach the 60’s. Beginning on Friday and through next weekend, the pattern may turn more tropical. This means we may have more breaks of sun, but we also may have hit and miss type thunderstorms across the area, as the air above us will still be unstable. It will also be warmer, with highs possibly reaching the lower 70’s. At this point, next Sunday may be totally dry, but that’s what I said about this past Sunday, in last weeks forecast. So things can change this far out!

Well that’s about it for today. Sorry I didn’t have a chance to give my summer sneak peek today. I will go over this in next week’s blog. I can tell you this, it’s looking cooler than last summer. Anyway, I will have this, as well as your Memorial Day outlook! Yes, two weeks from today is Memorial Day already! In the meantime, just because I’m forecasting a gloomy week ahead, does not mean we have to follow suite. Keep looking towards the bright side of things, and before you know it, the sun will be shining on us once again!

Pete

A cool regime… 5/9/11

I hope everyone had a nice Mother’s Day yesterday! For those who still have their moms it’s nice to get together with family on a nice spring day to pay tribute to the person who brought you into this world. For those who don’t, may the memories of your mom be eternal. I think it’s important to remember that just because someone is physically not with us anymore, the spirit lives on forever.

So how about that weather over the weekend? I’d categorize it as being very typical for New England. Just wait a minute, and it will change! I know how you feel, it can be a very frustrating time of year. Just driving around in your car, for instance, one minute you have the air conditioner on, then the heat, then you roll your windows down, then up, jacket on, jacket off…well, you get the picture! Getting back to Saturday, what a weird day weatherwise. If you stepped out first thing in the morning, you may have thought, hmmm…looks like a beautiful day to go to the park! Then midday came around, and the sky took on a poltergeist kind of a look. Suddenly, people were scrambling for cover as thunderstorms seem to come out of no where, some with hail. A few minutes later, the sun would be back out, only to start the process all over again. So, why was this happening? This was a typical springtime pattern. Many times, this time of the year, we get cold pockets of air trapped aloft, when the warm May sun heats up the ground,  the air rises, it cools and condenses, then falls as rain. If the atmosphere is turbulant enough, you get updrafts of air, causing the raindrops to freeze into little balls of ice, this is known as hail. If the updrafts and downdrafts are violent enough, the hail can go through a series of melting and freezing episodes, until it can’t be sustained any longer, it then falls to the earth as a hailstone. Typically, New England gets pea sized hail, however, we have had golf ball sized hail on rare occasions. In the midwest, where storms are more violent, soft ball sized hail occurs frequently!

So what about the rest of May? I ran into a friend of mine yesterday, and he was asking me when I thought the weather might warm up. He mentioned to me how cold it has been at his sons Little League games this year. Yes, it has been different this year than last year. Last year, we were in full “summer” mode already. This year there’s still talk of frosts on some nights for some inland communities. So far, I actually thought the spring was going to be worse than what it actually is. Yes, it’s cooler than last year, but I’ve seen worse. We’re actually having a slightly milder spring than average! I think people just really want warm summer weather to arrive, and arrive now! I think it will warm up a bit, looking at some of the long range forecasts, it may turn more summery towards the end of May. Keep those jackets handy for the next couple of weeks though.

Very briefly, the weather may have been a little on the changeable side this weekend, but it was nothing like it was on this date back in 1977. Back on May 9th, 1977, a very late season nor’easter actually brought a heavy snowstorm to much of New England! Yes, the trees were in full bloom, and all of the flowers were out. It was Logan airports latest measureable snow on record! Not much snow fell there, however, just inland, it was enough to cause tree damage, power outages and bring the plows out! In the higher elevations of New England, they measured the snow in feet, not inches!

Now for your weekly outdoor recreational forecast. I’m giving this week a 6 out of 10. Still not great, but a slight improvement over last week. Expect a sun and cloud mix for the rest of your Monday, with clouds winning out towards sunset. It will be a breezy day, with highs in the very low 60’s. Look for cloudy skies tonight , with possibly a few late night sprinkles. Look for dry conditions at Fenway tonight, with cool conditions, lows will be in the upper 40’s. Tuesday will be a cooler day, with gusty northeast winds. There may be some light showers or drizzle from time to time along the coast. Highs will struggle to the mid 50’s. Expect similar weather for Tuesday night and for Wednesday. It will not be a washout, just some pesky sprinkles and light showers here and there, outdoor games should be able to be played. Look for improving weather on Thursday, with increasing sun, and milder temperatures. There may be a few showers on Friday, then look for skies to clear during the afternnon. Right now, next weekend looks like it will feature sunny skies, but no beach weather yet, with highs only in the low 60’s.

Well, that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will continue to be on the look out for our first real taste of summery weather. I will also explain to you just why it has a tough time warming up along the coast in the spring, and why next weeks date is so important. In addition, I will have a sneak peek preview for summer 2011. In the meantime, expect the weather to be changeable, this is New England after all!

Pete

Unsettled weather ahead…5/2/11

Yesterday, we welcomed the month of May. There is alot of things that happen in May. Weatherwise, it’s a true transition month from spring to summer around here. From this point forward, spring is moving quickly towards the north, and summer is rapidly approaching from the south. By May 10th, most of the leaves inside of Rt.128 and 95 will be in full bloom. It’s also a very colorful month, as all of those April showers that we had, is now bearing the fruit of wonderful May flowers. You can look at May as being very similar to the month of November. Of course they are almost the exact opposite, but timetable wise, they are similar. May is the preface to the beginning of summer, and November the same for winter. Everything is blooming and coming alive in May, while in November, everything is closing up and going dormant. Yes, we are on the cusp of summer, and those who love summer are already breaking out the flip flops and making plans to be outdoors! In addition to all of this, there is Mother’s Day, graduations, proms, weddings, and don’t forget about Memorial Day towards the end of the month!

After such a beautiful start to the month of May yesterday, it appears as if a stretch of unsettled, wet and cool weather will be the rule rather than the exception for the remainder of the first week of May. I understand the frustration some of you may be feeling with this forecast. After a punishing winter, you want sunny, warm & dry weather to be here. You feel you deserve it. You paid for it, and you now want the product to be delivered. Unfortunately, Mother Nature doesn’t work like a business transaction. Make no mistake about it, she does run a business, but it has nothing to do with money and customer service. See, there is a system in place on this earth, and everything that happens in nature, whether its climate change, geologic, astronomic or biologic, has a purpose to it. The earth is constanly changing, evolving, and yet, is still always in a constant flux of balance. This is especially true with the weather. What makes the weather so interesting to me, is that it’s something that we can see, we can feel, and we can study and learn. So, what may turn out to be a lousy stretch of weather for us, is just business as usual for Mother Nature.

So how did April turn out for us this year? I would say it was a very changeable month. What started out with snow on April 1st, April actually turned out to be slightly warmer than normal temperatures around her. It also ended up to be a slightly wetter than normal month. Overall, it continued the La Nina type of pattern which established itself at the beginning of February. So what do I think for May this year? I’m expecting pretty much more of the same. I believe, in the end, it will turn out to be a cooler and wetter month than what a typical May would bring us. As I said in earlier blogs, this is not last year! Summer will be more tempered this year. I will release my official summer forecast around Memorial Day…so check back for that!

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to briefly talk about recent world developments. This is not a political statement,  just something that I wish to express my feeling on. After nearly 10 years, it was reported by the President of the United States last night, that terrorist killer Osama Bin Laden had been killed. Obviously, this is great news for not only the United States, but also for the world. Today, the world is a safer place to live in with this evil man gone. However (there’s always a however), let’s think this through a bit before we start running our mouths quicker than our brains can think. For people who lost someone special (2,974 perished)  in the terror attacks of 9/11, hopefully this will bring some sort of closure. The killing of Bin Laden does not bring anybody back! For the rest of us…I would say shut up! Last night, you have Geraldo Rivera on Fox 25 news singing happy day’s are here again, and people celebrating in cities across america like we had just won a major sporting event. Today people on sports radio are shooting their mouths off like they knew exactly how everything went down. This was a highly specialized, secret mission, with some of the best military military people on this earth risking their lives to bring justice for the people who were affected by the events of 9/11. Things are never going to be the same after 9/11. What does everybody think, that the TSA is not going to be needed now? This is, and always will be a dangerous world that we live in. The war on terror is a reality we must face every day. This is not a game. Our military, C.I.A., government, and all levels of law enforcement should be proud for keeping our country a safer place to live since 9/11. Yes, this is a day to be proud of our military, and feel a sense of closure for the people who were affected on 9/11, but we are by no means, living in a terror free world.

Now onto your forecast. As stated earlier, we have some unsettled weather on the way this week. I am rating this week a 5 out of 10. Look for clouds to be on the increase for the rest of your Monday, temperatures will top out around 60 this afternoon near the coast, and possibly mid 60’s inland. Despite the clouds, there will be no rain for any evening outdoor activities. Look for a mostly cloudy day for Tuesday, I cannot rulle out some hazy sun from time to time, look for it to be a slightly warmer day, with highs in the mid 60’s. It still should remain mostly dry Tuesday evening with mild temperatures, manly in the low 50’s. Watch for the chance of showers to be on the increase during Wednesday, with highs in the mid 60’s. Expect a wet night for Wedneday, with any outdoor activities being postponed. Thursday will feature cooler northeast winds, and damp weather in the morning, highs will only be in the low to mid 50’s. Right now, Friday and Saturday do not appear to be a washout, however I cannot rule out some scattered showers from time to time along with alot of clouds. It will continue to be on the cool side, with highs only in the 50’s. At this point, it’s looking like there may be another rain storm moving in for Mother’s Day, along with chilly temperatures. I hope this does not verify! Maybe it will hold off until Monday?

Well, I think I have said enough for now! In my next blog, I will look and see whether we have any genuine spring weather on the way or not. I will also talk about a significant weather event that happened on that day in weather history. In the meantime, keep checking back to the blog, as I said at one point, you never know what I may want to talk about next! Have a great week, and happy Mother’s Day to those who are mother’s, aunties, step mom’s or gaurdians.  Enjoy your day, despite what the weather may be!

Pete

Roller coaster pattern…4/25/11

I was watching Barry Burbank on channel 4 last evening, and he was talking about the weather pattern as of late being all about timing… isn’t this true with everything? It does seem everything in life is all about timing and interpreting what and how we remember things. So far, spring 2011 is actually averaging a bit above normal temperature wise, with near normal amount of rain. However, I was talking with family over the holiday yesterday, and all they can recall is how cold it has been at Little League games this spring. Yet, the kids were out in shorts playing baseball yesterday up in New Hampshire, when the day before it actually snowed a bit! Are you following all of this? After what seemed like months of stable weather patterns here in New England, when it was either very hot weather, or snowy and cold, New England is back to its old tricks again…just wait a minute, and the weather will change. Yesterday, we crested on the high part of the roller coaster, as temperatures suddenly soared into 70’s, after being only in the 40’s the day before! I Expect this roller coaster, up and down, weather pattern to continue for the foreseable future. In fact, it could possibly become more fickle as we head into May. Why, you ask? Well as we’ve had back and forth temperature patterns here in New England, it’s been summertime heat just to our south all month long. Expect this heat to try and build into new England as we move into May. However, at the same time, unusually cold weather is lingering in southern Canada. With some blocking forecasted to continue, and the cold ocean just to our east, this spells a recipe for a very unstable weather pattern!

Before I get to the roller coaster ride of a forecast, many people have been asking me, why so many tornadoes in the midwest and south this year? And how do tornadoes form? The quick answer to the first part of the question is partly what I talked about earlier in the blog. It’s the clash temperatures, with summertime warm and humid air pushing up from the south, and wintertime cold dry air trying to hang on in the north. This season, the clash is happening over these  same areas, and the result is severe weather outbreaks, along with a record amount of deadly tornadoes. So how does a tornado form? I’m going to tread very lightly with this subject, as the complexities of these storms have even the expert meteorologists scratching their heads sometimes. Although not fully understood, a tornado  generally forms in association with severe thunderstorms. These severe thunderstorms, are often associated with a temperature contrast with warm moist air on one side, and cold dry air on another, also known as a cold front. These storms often have powerful updrafts of wind, which can change direction with height, causing the air to rotate. If conditions are favorable, this rotation can extend toward the ground, resulting in a funnel cloud. If this funnel cloud hits the earth, you have a tornado! New England does not get as many tornadoes as the middle of the country, but we DO get them. In 1953, Worcester was struck by a F4 tornado! Killing 94 people. As the seasonal migration heads north, I expect a few tornadoes to hit New England this year sometime later in May and early June.

Briefly, I did want to talk very briefly about a bit of weather history. This time of the year, one doesn’t think of major snowstorms hitting the area, but they can happen! I’m not forecasting one for this year, however, back on April 28th, 1987, the Boston metropolitan area was hit by a record breaking late season snowstorm! In fact, it was the heaviest snowfall at Boston’s Logan airport for so late in the season. Logan recorded 4.3″ of wet snow, while further inland had alot more than that! West Roxbury, Ma. had about 6″, while Franklin, Ma. recorded an astounding 14″ of heavy wet snow! In fact, the snow banks from the storm, stuck around into the first couple day’s of May!

Now onto the weekly outdoor recreational forecast. No snowstorms this week, but a very changeable forecast nonetheless! I will rate this week a 6 out of 10 once again. Look for the rest of your Monday to feature alot of clouds and cooler temperatures than yesterday, with highs stuck in the lower 50’s. There also may be some light showers from time to time. This drizzly damp weather will continue into Monday night, with temp.’s not going down much. Watch for the sun to break out for you tuesday, with temperatures responding much like they did on Easter Sunday, with highs possibly soaring into the 70’s! The front may then slide back down the coast on Wednesday as a back door cold front. This may bring low clouds and cooler weather again, with highs back into the 50’s, very tricky forecast here, with a big bust potential. If that front doesn’t move through, Wednesday may be alot like Tuesday. Thursday will turn unsettled again, with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms rumbling across the area. Right now, if that front keeps moving offshore, it may set us up for a sunny, drier weekend coming up, with temperatures in the 60’s. I hope that works out!

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will review the weather for the month of April, and also take a look at what May have in store for us weatherwise. It’s hard to believe that we are already two thirds of the way through spring, Memorial Day is right around the corner! In the meantime, hold on tight for the upcoming roller coaster ride, it’s always a bumpy trip to get to summer around here!

Pete