Wake up! It’s green up! 4/18/11

Happy Patriot’s Day to everyone! Though not a national holiday, Patriot’s Day is a holiday celebrated in Massachusetts and Maine, and is a day filled with rich history and tradition around these parts. So what is Patriot’s Day? This is a day which commemorates the battles of Lexington and Concord, fought near Boston back in 1775. Have you ever been walking in the North End in Boston and walked by the statue of Paul Revere on his horse, and the Old North Church? This is what makes Boston famous! Paul Revere, an American silversmith and a patriot in the American Revolution was instramental in helping the Patriot’s fight off the British in the American Revolution. Famous for his “midnight ride” from Boston to Lexington to inform Samuel Adams and John Hancock that the British were coming to arrest them. Revere, along with Robert Newman, who was the sexton at the Old North Church, set up an intelligence and alarm system to keep watch on the British military. “One if by land,  two if by sea,” was the signal used with a light beacon  in the steeple of the Old North Church to inform Revere which way the British were moving. When the beacon flashed twice, the intelligence system was implamented, and Revere knew the British were moving by way of water. Revere then made history with his ride out to Concord to inform the patriot troops of the British invasion.* Along with re-enactments of the battle of 1775, the Boston Marathon is held on this day, and the Red Sox also always play today!

So, have you taken a look at the landscape recently? Yes, it’s turned green! This is true especially if you live inside of Rt. 128 and if you live close to the ocean. So far, green up looks to be right on schedule this year. Last year, green up was running a good month ahead of schedule, due to the unusually warm spring we were having. So, what’s going on here? Why is the lawn turning green and the trees are budding? The quick answer to this is that the earth is tilting towards the sun on its axis, resulting in increase solar radiation. In a couple of weeks, around May 1st, all the lawns will need to be mowed for the first time this season. Here in eastern Massachusetts, we mow our lawns from May 1st through October 31 st. Of course, this can vary from year to year. What else should we expect in the coming weeks? Well, for one thing, the trees are starting to bud right now. In a week or so, this will flower into baby leaves, and by May 10th or so, all of the leaves will be in full bloom. This process happens quicker if you live inside of Rt.128 and inside of I95 because of the urban heat island effect and the moderating effects of the Atlantic ocean. If you live inland, away from the ocean, this process is delayed by a couple of weeks, because of colder temperatures. After all this happens, just cross your fingers and say a prayer that we will have another nice summer to enjoy this year!!

Now for your outdoor recreational forecast. It will be unsettled again this week. I’m giving this week another 6 out of 10. Look for sunshine to be fading behind increasing clouds for the rest of your Monday. It will stay dry for the marathon and the Red Sox game, all in all, not a bad day. Temperatures should top off around 60 this afternnon. I’m hearing on the radio some record times coming in from the marathon, this does not surprise me with a tail wind blowing from west to east. Tonight, a cold front will slip south of New England, possibly with a few showers late. Tuesday will be different type of a day, with an east wind blowing in off the ocean. This will not only bring moisture in off of the ocean in the form of some showers, but it will also be much cooler, with highs only in the 40’s here in Boston. Look for some wet weather from time to time into Wednesday. It will not be raining all of the time, but expect it to be damp and cool. A stronger cold front will move through New England and bring more of a land airmass in here for us by Thursday. It should turn at least partly sunny and milder weather, with highs near 60. Friday may be the pick of the week, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60’s. At this point, look for more unsettled weather to move into New England for Easter weekend. It’s difficult to pin point from this time frame, but expect some rainy, cool weather to move in sometime on Saturday. This may clear out in time for Easter Sunday?

Well that’s about it for now. Next week, I will talk a little bit why this spring is so much different than last spring. I will also have your forecast for the final week of April already! In the meantime, it’s time to start tuning up those lawn mowers, as lawn up comes right behind green up! Remeber,everything is relative, at least we don’t have killer tornadoes like they’re having down south and in the midwest. So we can live with a little rain, it’s good for the lawns!

Pete

*Some of this information was derived from Wickipedia

Typical spring weather…4/11/11

I don’t know about you, but I can find this time of year dreadful at times. Yes, I do love the sudden bursts of springtime weather, but generally speaking, the weather as of late has been a bit uneventful. After all, it can’t be extreme all of the time, even Mother Nature needs a break now and again! It’s not that nothing is going on, there’s always something going on when it comes to the weather. Just this morning, as I stepped out the door, I took a deep breathe, as I always do, and smelled a familiar scent in the air. The scent was spring. With the recent warm weather over the weekend, and the light showers which dampened the ground overnight, the smell of the earth coming alive was back in the air. Many people wait all year for this familiar scent and enjoy it very much because it means the end of winter. As for me, I enjoy all four seasons here in New England, with winter being my favorite. As in the spring, autumn has a scent of its own, with its crisp nights, and wood burning stove smell in the air. But we won’t talk about that now, as we are several seasons away from autumn, which makes alot of people happy!

So with so much to look forwad to why feel down? Well, its getting to the warm summer breezes which we love so much here in New England that can be so painful. For instance, with the weather that we had this past weekend, you would think that we have danced through the tulips, and are now on our way to summer…not so fast. As much as we enjoyed the beautiful weather from this past weekend, this pattern still has the potential of getting ugly. Typically, we go back and forth here in New England before we settle into a new season. Springtime is this transition time. The next couple of weeks will feature this type of weather, with times of cool rainy damp episodes, along with some sunny periods. I know how you are feeling. It can be a very frustrating time of year for many. It’s where we live that makes it like this. New England lies exactly between the North Pole and the Equator. Summer heat is building to our south, meanwhile Canada still has quite a bit of cold air leftover from the winter. This puts New England right in a very unsettled battle zone, with summer trying to advance northward, and winter trying to hang on pushing south. Eventually, summer will win out, but it may be quite a battle this year.

Speaking of breezes, I would like to briefly talk about a spring phenomenon which we are quite familiar with especially here in eastern New England. I am talking about that chilling sea breeze that happens quite a bit during the spring. There are many types of sea breezes. Some are storm related, while others are due to difference in pressure and air masses. Sea breezes sound nice in the summer, and they are, but in the spring it can be a different story. In air mass sea breezes, the land heats up and rises quickly, to replace this air, the colder more dense air of the ocean, rushes inland and sometimes chills the land along the coastal plain by as much as 20 dgrees! This can extend inland from the coast by as much as 10 miles sometimes. When we have late season storms, winds coming in from the east can chill all of New England off, making it raw for everybody. Sea breezes can vary from year to year, depending on how cold the ocean is. We get them every year, but some years more frequently than others. A good rule of thumb if you live west of Rt. 128 and plan on taking a trip to the beach in the springtime, bring a jacket!

Now for your outdoor weekly recreational forecast. Expect an unsettled week…typical. I’ll give it a 6 out of 10, and that may be generous. Look for the warm weather to be right on our doorstep for the rest of your Monday! If the sun comes out this afternoon, we may soar into the 70’s, otherwise it will remain overcast with highs in the 60’s. It’s a close call, as of this writing, skies were brightening, but no sun yet. If you live well west and southwest of Boston, you may reach the 70’s easily, this is a good example at how the cold ocean can retard warm weather reaching the coastal areas this time of year. There may be a few showers tonight and first thing Tuesday morning, otherwise expect more clouds than sun tomorrow, with temperatures possibly close to 60 early, but then falling back during the afternoon, because, you guessed it, the seabreeze. Expect this seabreeze to freshen on Wednesday, as a storm system approaches us from the south. This storm is expected to pass south of New England during the course of the day, resulting in winds backing into the northeast. This is going to be an ugly day, with periods of rain and colder temperatures. Highs will be falling through the 40’s. What do you expect for the 13th day of the month! There may be some improvement on Thursday, with some afternoon sun, and temperatures back up into the 50’s. Another storm system looks to approach New England on Friday. This does not look to be as cold, but may deliver periods of showers from Friday night into Sunday morning. We shall see.

Well that’s about it for today. In next week’s blog, I will continue to monitor the advancement of spring, as well as your forecast for Easter week. I’ll see if there is anything else I can drum up to talk to, so check in, because you never know what else I may have to say! In the meantime, it may be typical weather now, but remember it’s all relative, as it’s always the extemes that make the averages!

Pete

April showers bring May flowers… 4/4/11

Now that we are into April, I think it’s time to put winter 2010/11 behind us and look forward to springtime here in New England. Yes, there will be chilly periods ahead, you may even see a wet snowflake or two, but the worst of winter is for sure behind us. In this post I will be reviewing what kind of a winter New England experienced this past year. I will also let you know where we stand in terms of the spring timetable and what you should expect in the coming weeks. I also would like to let you know about a memorable storm that hit Boston back in 1982.

As I mentioned last week, I am going to venture out on a limb, and think that not too many people are going to be upset that the April fool’s storm did not live up to its potential last Friday. Yes, it did snow, but in the end, the storm fizzled. You can have all the super computer models and fancy equipment that you want, but Mother Nature ultimately always has the last word. Most of the models were printing out a heavy snowfall either in, or just on the outskirts of the city limits for Friday. The storm did get its act together, but it was a case of too little too late for Boston. People up in Maine would tell you otherwise, as many places received up to a foot of heavy wet snow, resulting in many power outages and tree damage.

The April fool’s day storm may have been an underachiever, but this was not the rule for winter 2010/11. In fact, winter 2010/11 overachieved in many categories. My early predictions of a light winter for the Boston area were unfounded, as nor’easter after nor’easter battered the region for 6 weeks of unrelenting snows, to the tune of 80.7″, or nearly double the seasonal norm. Northern New England snowfall worked out just fine, as late season storms equaled out the slow start to the season. In the end, the November temperatures at Logan airport told the story for Boston’s snowfall. Any year when temperatures finish either at average, or slightly below at Logan, Boston has above average snowfall for the year, sometimes by alot! Logan was .1 degree below average this past November. In addition, I believe the high latitude volcanic activity contributed to early season blocking over Greenland, resulting in more nor’easters this year. Oh well, no one ever said that it was easy, I learned quite a bit for next years forecast!

Moving on to spring now. With the heavy winter that we had, it appears spring is going to be somewhat delayed this year. Coastal areas will see green up first, this will slowly spread into the interior as we move deeper into April. Green up is when our lawns and foliage begin to feel the stronger solar radiation from the sun, and begin to come alive again after being dormant this winter. First, you will notice the grass turning greener, trees beginning to bud, and flowers poking through the ground. By months end, you may need to mow the grass for the first time this season. Everything is temperature and cloud dependent. If we have a cooler April with lots of cloudy days, then this process will delayed a bit. Right now, April looks highly variable, with more cool days than warm ones, along with a geater amount of precipitation. Make no mistake about it, however, spring is coming, and warmer days are ahead!

Briefly, I would like to talk to you about a storm we had in Boston back on April 6th, 1982. This was a spring blizzard in all of its glory. Gale force winds, thunder and lightning acompanied the blinding snow to the tune of 10 to 20″ across the area! Record cold temperatures followed the storm with temperatures remaining in the teens and 20’s the day after! It doesn’t happen often, but when they do, spring storms can be more intense than winter storms sometimes!

Now onto your outdoor spring recreational forecast. This week, I will revert back to the old system, where the higher the number on the scale, the better the weather will be. This week, I will give it a 6 out of 10. Expect many April showers to bring our May flowers this week. Look for showers to spread across the area for the rest of your Monday. It will be on the chilly side, with highs only in the mid 40’s. Watch for foggy and damp weather to be the rule overnight, as a warm front pushes through our area. Tuesday will feature warm conditions the first half of the day, with temperatures soaring into the mid 60’s briefly. A thunderstorm may visit some communities around midday, this will usher in cooler temperatures during the afternoon. On the way home from work, you will need a jacket for sure! Look for chilly weather Tuesday night, with temperatures dropping into the 30’s in the cities, 20’s for the suburbs. Wednesday will be a changeable type of day, with sun and clouds mixed, there may be a few showers anytime during the afternoon. Thursday is shaping up to be the nicest day of the week, with sunshine and mild temperatures in the low 50’s. Unfortunately, it looks like clouds will be rapidly increasing Friday morning, and rain may be moving in during the Red Sox home opener, bummer! This may change this far out, so keep watching future forecasts. Right now, this same weather system may foul up at least the first part of next weekend, with some showers and cool weather. Sunday may improve, but no gaurantees at this point!

That’s about it for now. Next week, I will talk in more detail about the status of the spring timetable, as well as venture into the future as to what the rest of April may bring us. If we do have lots of rainy weather, just keep telling yourself, April showers bring May flowers..April showers bring May flowers…and before you know it, May will be here!

Pete

This is snow joke! 3/28/11

What a difference a year makes! Last year at this time, New England was coming off the wettest March on record with catastrophic flooding. Along with all of the rain, March was also a very warm month. After the rains, came the heat, as April kicked off the summer with incredibly warm weather! Remember the trees actually blooming their leaves in April last year? Last year turned out to be the warmest year on record in Boston! As I’ve been telling everyone for quite some time now, this year is going to be different. As forecasted, the NAO has turned sharply negative, and the pattern later on this week is looking more like mid January than the beginning of April! This should come as no surprise to anybody who has lived in New England for any length of time. We’ve had late season snowstorms, even severe blizzards at this time of the year before. With the Greenland block anchoring in place, I am expecting another April fools surprise for many areas of New England this year. In a bit, I will be talking to you about the April fools blizzard that struck eastern Massachusetts back in 1997. I will also talk more about this years version later on in my forecast!

Looking back at my forecast from last Wednesday night, I’m going to venture out on a limb and believe that everybody was elated that the early spring snowfall that was predicted, fizzled. At least this is what I hear from family and friends. I was speaking with my sister after it was clear that the event was not going to happen, I was telling her that I thought maybe it had just snowed itself out this year in Boston, and that there was nothing left in the tank. I then quickly came to my senses, realized that this is New England, and that anything can happen!! One would think that with 79.3″ of snow so far this season, winter would relinquish its grip on New England, and allow spring to move in. Not this year. In fact, I believe we will be adding to this total, and possibly in a big way. I’ve been following the climate carefully through the years, and Boston has not had any accumulation of consequence since the April fools blizzard, so we are due for snow in April. Keep in mind that Boston “averages” only about one inch of snow in April. Many times, this inch comes in full fledge snowstorms every 5 to 8 years or so.

Speaking of the April fools blizzard, I would like to briefly talk about that storm and another one we had at the end of March back in 1984. First, the April fools blizzard, which actually began on March 31st, 1997. This storm was Boston’s third largest snowstorm on record. A staggering 25.3 inches of snow fell in that storm, 22 of those inches fell on April 1st. The amazing thing about this storm, was the intense thunder and lightning that occurred for several hours during the height of the storm. In addition, Boston’s Logan airport reported 3 to 4 inch per hour snows for several hours, which quickly piled up the record amounts of snow. Areas just inland had even more snow than that. I measured 28″ here in West Roxbury, Worcester received their biggest snowfall to this date at 33.” Milford, Ma. hit the jackpot at an amazing 36″ of snow! It was certainly a storm that people will remember for a long time! Another very intense storm that struck Massachusetts was back on March 28th and 29th, 1984. This storm featured hurricane force winds, power outages and severe tree damage. Stinging sleet pellets turned into wet snow, which plastered everything in its path. This dangerous combination resulted in severe tree damage and thousands of power outages across the Boston area. So you can see, storms do happen this time of the year, and many times they are intense.

Now to the weekly outdoor recreational forecast. last week I mentioned that I would talk about the spring timetable and doing away with the winter severity scale. Due to the current pattern, this is going to be delayed until further notice. I am going to give this week a 7 out of 10 on the severity scale, weighted heavily on the potential nor’easter at the end of the week. Look for mostly to at times partly sunny skies for the rest of your Monday. It will be another chilly day with a brisk wind. Highs will generally be in the mid 40’s. It will feel alot colder than this, if you are not in the sun and the wind blows. Tonight will be fair and cold for this time of year, with lows in the 20’s again. Expect more sunshine mixed with some high clouds on Tuesday, with highs once again in the mid 40’s. It will be a little less windy Tuesday, so it won’t feel as cold. Look for Wednesday to be the pick of the week, with light winds, sunshine and milder temperatures. It may even feel like spring, with highs near 50. Beginning on Thursday through Saturday, expect unsettled conditions to develop. It’s difficult to pinpoint at this point, however there may be some light mixed rain and snow on Thursday. Looking over the latest information, it does appear as if a late season early April nor’easter will arrive sometime Friday and continue into Saturday. This storm could bring heavy rain, changing to heavy wet snow,  strong northeast winds and beach erosion. Heaviest accumulations look to be across inland areas, north and west of Rt 128 at this point. This is subject to change, and I will be updating this forecast later in the week as conditions warrant. By the way, for people who enjoy skiing, this late season cold weather will extend the ski season well into April this year, maybe even into May!

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will be looking back on my forecast, and reviewing winter 2010/11. If the pattern breaks, I may also begin to talk about the spring time table, as well as look at what kind of weather we are looking at for this April. By now, I think you have an idea of what we’re up against. In the meantime, if we’re lucky, the joke may be on me this year, forecasting an April fools snowstorm? We shall see!

Pete

Early spring snow… 3/23/11

Just had a few minutes to check out the latest computer models concerning the possibilty of an early spring snowfall overnight. I generally look at four different computer models, although there are many more, these are the most reliable ones.  This storm, like many, is going to be a tough call for accumulations across the area. While many areas to the southwest of Boston may receive appreciable accumulations, areas to the north may miss out on this one. The storm will be moving in a northwest to southeast direction, which tends to weaken precipitation as it approaches our area. In addition, one reliable computer model is forecasting practically no snow at all for the Boston area on north, while the other three models do indeed show accumulating snow moving across the area overnight. This will not be a major storm, however, I am expecting possibly two to perhaps up to three inches of snow to fall overnight. This snow will tend to linger during the day on Thursday, before tapering to flurries during the afternoon. If you live well west and southwest of Boston, you may receive 3 to 6″ of snow. This is not the last storm, as already the pattern is loading up for possibly a much larger nor’easter type of a storm come the beginning of next week. I will update you with that potential over the weekend!

Hello spring…hello winter? 3/21/11

You would think that after nearly 80″ of snow, winter would say to spring, I’ve had enough, you can take over now. Yet, as of this writing, the first flakes are beginning to fall outside of my weather window here on this first day of spring. For you spring lovers, and I know there are alot of you out there, this is not a good sign. With this being the first day of spring, it seems so ironic that snow will fall to greet the new season. It shouldn’t come to that much of a surprise. If you’ve been following my blog, you would have read that I’ve been calling for a shift back to a wintery pattern for quite some time now. What makes it even more noteworthy, is that the Greenland block a.k.a. the NAO, is turning negative right on the first day of spring. This looks like a classic case of a backwards spring to me. The Greenland block is a phenomenon which typically happens during the winter and spring seasons, but also can happen during other parts of the year. The block was one of the reasons that resulted in all of the snow we had this winter. When the block sets up, a strong ridge of high pressure over Greenland forces the jet stream further south , many times resulting in a cold and stormy weather pattern for eastern New England. Storms that typically move quickly through New England, move slower, and are usually forced under New England, resulting in cold northeast winds and snow. Sometimes these blocks happen later in the spring, and at that point it’s too warm for snow, and we can get several days of cold, rainy weather. With the block settling in at this time of the year, we still have the opportunity to get several wintery events. So how long is this pattern going to last? Not 100% sure. However, this does look like a pretty strong block to me, so I can see this lasting at least into the middle of April. What I do know, is that this spring will be nothing like last year. This definitely looks like it is going to be a colder spring, with several shots of wintery weather. New England is the master of balance, when it comes to weather. We live in a zone that is of equal distance between the North Pole and the South Pole. Last year, we had the warmest spring on record…and this year??

Last week, I mentioned that I would talk about some New England spring rituals that we go through before we get to summer. With the colder weather pattern settling in, these customs will be delayed. Most of these customs are areas inland, away from the ocean, and up in the north country. I hope alot of the ski resorts aren’t pulling the plug on the ski season just yet, because I do believe that the season is going to extend well into April this year! Anyway, when spring does finally make it to New England, here are just some of the traditions that we go through. First, is maple syrup season. When the sun angle increases, and we get sunny milder days, and clear cold nights, the sap begins to flow from the maple trees. From here, it’s a intricate system which processes the sap from the trees into the maple syrup which we enjoy for our pancakes!  The next tradition New Englanders are accustomed to is the mud season. This is a short season (micro season) which occurs after the snow melts and the ground thaws out. It can get very messy out there! Along with mud season, many New Englanders anxiously awaits is ice out season. Ice out is when all of the ice melts from our ponds and lakes, signaling the start of fishing season! I think ice out will be delayed this year for many parts of northern New England! Later, I will talk more about our spring time table as we move deeper into the spring season.

Now for your weekly outdoor recreational forecast. With winter returning, I will be continuing the winter severity index. Expect this week to be 7 out of 10 on the index. Not severe winter weather, but enough to give a seven, due to the time of year. Look for a burst of snow to overspread the area today with a slushy inch possible before it changes to some light rain later. If you live outside of Rt. 128 expect possibly 1 to 3 inches of snow. If you live outside of Rt. 495, expect 2 to 4 iches of snow. If you live in New Hampshire or Vermont, you can expect 3 to possibly even 6 inches across the higher elevations. Ski areas will do well with this snowfall, helping to extend the season further. The storm will move out quickly tonight, leaving some icy spots later. Expect a better day for your Tuesday, with partly sunny skies, and temperatures in the mid 40’s.  Look for increasing clouds on Wednesday and colder temperatures, with highs in the very low 40’s. The next storm will approach New England starting Wednesday night. This looks like it will be more for significant for southern New England. Rain, or rain mixed with snow will develop Wednesday evening. As the storm moves east of us, expect winds to turn into the north, northeast. This will draw colder air into the storm changing all of the precipitation to snow. Come Thursday morning, we may have a slippery morning commute, after possibly several inches of snow overnight. Look for an unsettled day on Thursday, with light snow and rain mixed falling, no further accumulations expected during the day. Colder weather will be the theme for the rest of the week, with temperatures well below seasonal levels, with highs only in the upper 30’s and maybe very low 40’s, not springlike at all! At this point, the weekend looks iffy at best. Systems will be moving quickly, so it’s hard to predict. Right now, Saturday looks dry and cold. There may be another storm grazing southeast New England and possibly up to Boston with some rain or snow on Sunday. I will keep you updated with that possibility if need be. It still looks to be very cold right into next week, so keep the winter wardrobe handy until further notice!

Well that’s about it for now. Next week, I will begin to discuss the spring time table and what to expect. I will also update you on how much more wintery weather we might expect out of this season. I will also talk to you about a severe storm which struck Massachusetts back at the end of March in 1984. In the meantime from now until then, don’t get to discouraged with our latest bout of winter, we have no control over it anyway! Uh oh, the flakes are falling faster out there!

Pete

Earthquakes, tsunamis, floods! 3/14/11

Although not technically weather related, I thought it would be interesting to talk a bit about the Japan earthquake and Tsunami that happened last week. If you still don’t believe that there is a higher power, then, what can I tell you? We are not in control here on earth. Over time, humans have evolved into very intelligent beings. Doctors have learned more and more about how the human body works. Engineers have advanced technology to unprecedented levels. Scientists continue to make great strides in medicine, meteorology, geology and astronomy to name a few. Yet natural disasters have happened, are happening, and will continue to happen infinitely. Why? Because the earth is a dynamic system. It’s alive. One thing that many people don’t realize is just how fragile this system is. Earth’s system is a great balancing act of  sunlight, geology, weather and astronomy.  Mother Nature, and only Mother Nature, knows when to balance things out, or make adjustments when need be. With the earth, everything happens for a reason. This includes the massive earthquake in Tokyo last week, which triggered the deadly tsunami that killed thousands of people. Unfortunately, part of this “balancing act” also means deaths, sometimes thousands at a time. So, how did this disaster happen? Basically, this was an earthquake that happened in the ocean, off the coast of Japan. Don’t forget, Japan is situated on the so called, “ring of fire.” This ring of fire is a zone, that begins off the coast of South America and runs through the Pacific ocean, then along the coast of Japan, then winds its way up along the coast of Alaska. Within this zone, the earth’s plates often rub against each other, resulting in frequent earthquakes and volcanos. In Japan’s case, one plate subducted under another, pushing the earth up under the sea, this resulted in an upwelling of the ocean. This violent motion, causes a ripple effect on the oceans surface. In the deep ocean, this is not a big deal. However, when these ripples travel towards the coast, the water piles up, and creates a surge of water of biblical proportions. Of course the process is much more technical than how explained it, but this is a simple explanation of a tsunami. Many friends and relatives asked me over the weekend, Pete, do you think that a tsunami could happen along the east coast, even here in Boston? The answer to this question is, yes! Hopefully never, but it could happen, if the right forces came together. If there were ever to be a stong earthquake in the middle of the Atlantic ocean, and it was the type of quake that pushed the earth up, then in theory, a tsunami could develop and race towards the east coast and Europe. So always be aware of your surroundings, and have respect for the earth!

Before my forecast for the week, I did want to briefly talk about an amazing storm that happened 18 years ago. It was called the “Storm of the Century” by many, or the Blizzard of 93′. This storm, was a culmination of all different weather forces coming together to cause a massive storm from Florida to atlantic Canada. Beginning on March 11th, it brought blizzard conditions to the deep south, which then spread up the coast into New England by March 12th. Here in New England, it was a massive storm. Although not the worst we have seen, it did deposit 13″ of snow in Boston, 20″ in Worcester, and up to 30 to 40″ in Vermont. From Upstate N.Y. down the Appalachian mountains, more like 30 to 50″ of snow fell. In addition to the snowfall, hurricane force winds battered the area causing extensive blowing and drifting. Because the center passed over the city of Boston, I remember a strange warm (almost tropical) feel to the air around midnight, before the cold air came rushing back in, changing any rain back to snow. This storm was part of a record breaking month of snow for march in Boston. In fact, after this storm passed, we had several other snowstorms to deal with. It was so snowy, that the St. Patrick’s Day parade was actually cancelled that year!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. this will be the last winter activity forecast, as spring begins next week. I have to apologize for last weeks outburst. It happens every year about this time, when I realize winter is ending and spring starts to take over. I always want more, but realize this is why I love living in New England, it’s that we have four seasons, and it’s time to move on. Anyway, look for mostly cloudy skies for the rest of your Monday. It will be kind of chilly today, with highs close to 40. Do not be surprised if you see a flurry here or there, nothing serious. It will clear out and turn cold tonight, with lows mainly in the 20’s. Tuesday will feature partly sunny skies and cold temperatures, highs will mainly be in the mid 40’s inland, and upper 30’s along the coast with a seabreeze. A storm system will approach us from the southwest tomorrow night. If the precipitation moves oin early enough, it may be just cold enough to begin as a little snow. If you live inland, and especially to the north of Boston, you have a better shot at seeing possibly even up to an inch or two of snow Wednesday morning. this will not be a big storm, and it will turn to rain as the day goes on. Further south, it will mainly be a damp cool day, with highs in the 40’s. Watch for clearing skies and milder weather on the way for your St. Patrick’s Day, with highs in the mid to upper 50’s! In years past, Boston has been known to have one last major snowstorm around this day, not this year! Friday will be a true taste of spring, with sunny weather, and highs possibly in the low 60’s! Right now, Saturday looks to feature alot of clouds, and a little cooler with highs in the 50’s. Look for some showers possibly early Sunday, then it will turn windy and noticeably cooler (for your first day of spring) uh oh! I hope that’s not a bad sign! As I mentioned in earlier blogs, the NAO is turning sharply negative, so a turn to colder weather looks likely towards the end of March and beginning of April. I will keep you updated with this situation.

Well that’s about it for now. Next week, I will offer a spring outlook, as spring will have sprung! I will also talk about some interesting spring rituals that New Englanders must go through before we can say it’s summer! In the meantime, enjoy the warmer weather arriving in New England later this week, because you never know what Mother nature has planned for us later!

Pete

March meltdown…3/7/11

I’m going to talk open with you about a few things this morning. While many people are singing the arrival of springtime weather, talking about baseball, yard clean-ups, going to Home Depot to stock up on spring and summer materials, the arrival of the Swan Boats in the Public Garden, taking long walks on their lunch break..oh! I could go on and on! Don’t get me wrong, I too enjoy a good spring day here and there. But for me, it’s different. Although I love all four seasons New England has to offer us, spring is my least favorite. The arrival of spring means the end of winter. It means the end of ski season is in sight, as well as all other outdoor winter activities. To some degree, I suffer from a mild case of post winter depression. This is a similar feeling after a severe winter storm ends. The anticipation leading up to the big storm, leads to a feeling of post storm depression after the storm ends, because you know there may not be another storm like that for years. Oh well, just like many things in life, we move on. We look to what the future may bring us. Mother Nature doesn’t care what I think, nor how I feel! She has important business to conduct. Transitioning from one season to the next requires alot of energy! Winter will be back, maybe alot sooner than many people think!

So all the snow has melted here in eastern Massachusetts. This is what several days of temperatures in the 60’s in March will do. Although it was inevitable, it was shocking too me at how fast the mountains of snow melted over the weekend. March is a funny month, it can go either way. Some years, it can be a very wintery month. While other years, spring gains the upper hand. So what about this year? I realize we’re already a week into March, but it is a long month. Is spring truly here? Is it all systems go for rapid warming and sunny days until summer? In previous posts I talked about a winter that may hold on well into the spring this year. So what do I think now? Looking at the latest long range computer models and my own theories, I still do believe that winter may still have some tricks up his sleeve, especially for northern New England. To me, it appears as if high latitude blocking, also known as the NAO, may turn negative again towards the end of March and into April. If this does occur, New England may be enjoying its best springtime weather right now! If the NAO does go negative, this will force cold weather from Canada into southern New England. In addition, slow moving nor’easters may deliver periods of wet snow and cold rain. Looking back at how beautiful last April was, I would not be surprised to see this April turn out to be on the cold and wet side. Looking out towards the rest of March, I’m going for a colder second half of the month, with the possibility of another winter storm before the month is out.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter recreational forecast. Let’s not forget, technically we are still in winter until March 20th. Not so much winter weather coming up for this week, so for this reason, I’ll rate this week a 3 out of 10 on the severity scale. Interesting to note, while southern New England saw alot of the snow cover disappear over the weekend, the northern ski areas actually saw their snowpack increase! Yes, they did take somewhat of a hit, but the net result was rain which turned to heavy wet snow as colder air worked into the storm, so many areas got a heavy accumulation of snow! For the rest of your Monday, look for mostly cloudy weather, along with some brightening from time to time. Temperatures will start out on the mild side, but look for colder weather as you head back home tonight. There may also be a few showers of rain or snow, but nothing serious. Tonight will feature clearing skies. It will be colder than recent nights, with lows mainly in the 20’s. Expect sunny and seasonable weather for your Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures averaging in the lower 40’s. Look for our next storm system to approach us during the day on Thursday with increasing clouds. Rain may develop later in the day or at night. If you live in interior parts of New Hampshire and Vermont, it may start as some frozen precipitation, but overall this looks like a warm storm to me. Friday looks to be on the cloudy, damp side, with temperatures in the 40’s again. Right now, next weekend looks to be on the dry side with seasonable temperatures again, mainly in the mid 40’s. Things may change this far out for next weekend, if they do, I will let you know!

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will be talking about a historic storm which hit the eastern part of the country, including New England. I will also be talking about a historic month of March here in New England in that same year. I will also keep you updated with any new developments with the NAO as we head towards the spring equinox. In the meantime, let’s remember that meltdowns come in all different ways, I’m sure that if it involves the melting of snow, most people appreciate that!

Pete

Clash of seasons! 2/28/11

Sorry for the late post. Today the bear finally caught up with me…the technology bear that is. I had already written a full blog, but when I went to publish it, a major malfunction occurred, and I lost the whole thing. So after 64 posts, my luck finally ran out! Oh well, we move on.

Robert Frost once said, “You can never get too much winter in winter.” For me, this is true. For others, well, I think they’ve had enough. This is especially true after yesterday’s snowfall of 5.3″ in Boston has brought the seasonal total close to 80″. For those looking for hope at the end of the long tunnel, I bring you some good news today. Today marks the end of meteorological winter, which constitutes the three months of December, January and February. Winter does not officially end until the spring equinox, which isn’t until March 20th. So this begs the question, is it over? The short answer to this is no! If you’ve lived in New England for any amout of time (except last spring), you know that it isn’t really over until around Patriots Day! Let me remind you again, last year Boston had its warmest spring and summer on record! Every year is different, and this will be no exception. I’m forecasting a very volatile stretch of weather beginning now right into April. March is the time of year when winter is fighting to hold its territory. At the same time warm weather begins to gather across the south and when the two clash, watch out! There is alot of cold air remaining up in Canada, and very warm air building to the south. This combination will lead to very rapid changes across New England, some of these changes will lead to the possibilty of one or even  two snowstorms still to go until April. For people living in northern New England, you may not see real spring weather until sometime in May!

Now onto a bit of New England weather history. Today marks the end of the 100 hour snowstorm in Boston. The storm began on February 24th, 1969, and did not end until February 28th. Officially, this is Boston’s third greatest snowstorm with 26.3″ accumulating. However, areas just inland from the ocean, had more like 30 to 40″ and was possibly the largest storm ever! Maine and New Hampshire (mountain areas) had nearly 100″ of snow! In addition, the temperatures were close to 32 degrees during the event, making it a heavy wet snow which clinged to trees and powerlines. Interesting to note, Cape Cod did not have any accumulations from this storm. One more storm which I would like to talk to you quickly happened back in the beginning of march of 1960. This storm turned into a fierce blizzard, especially in eastern Massachusettss, with gale force winds and 2 ft of snow. Of interesting to note with this storm was that it followed temperatures that were in the 60′s just a few days before!

Now onto the weekly outdoor winter activity forecast. I will rate this week a 5 out of 10 on the severity scale. With tomorrow being March 1st, severe winter weather does not last as long with the warming sun. After this mornings sleet and freezing rain, then rain, look for the rest of this afternoon to remain on the cloudy and damp side. Areas to the north will remain on the icy side. Look for clearing and colder weather for tonight, with lows in the 20′s. Watch for sunny and brisk weather for Tuesday with highs near 40 degrees. Tusday night will be clear and cold. Wednesday should be the mildest day of the week, with highs in the mid to upper 40′s. There may be a brief rain or snow squall moving through the area later in the day. Thereafter, expect colder weather to move back into the region for Thursday, with highs only in the mid 30′s. Look for some increasing clouds on Friday with possibly a little light snow or flurries, this will not have any significant accumulations. At this point, there will be another storm approaching New England come next weekend. Right now it looks to bring mostly wet than white weather, but this could change this far out. Look for excellent ski and snowmoble weather to continue this week. I was skiing at Mt. Snow in Vermont yesterday, and can assure you the conditions were excellent. Of course they had just received 20″ of new snow. What would you expect , a weatherman to go skiing when rain is due?

Well that’s about it for now. In next week’s blog, I will talk more about the fickle weather of March, and also discuss in more detail the upcoming pattern for spring. In the meantime, get ready for the clash of the seaons, and keep those scorecards handy!

Pete

Snowy scene…2/26/11