Winter’s revenge! 2/21/11

Happy President’s Day everyone! With this being school vacation week, it’s a time of year when many outdoor winter activities reach their peak. Many families take advantage this week to go skiing, snowmobiling, and just get outdoors to enjoy the great winter conditions here in New England! Some families decide that winter is not their thing, and actually head south to Florida to warmer climes. You would never catch me heading south during the winter, that’s for sure! Last Thursday and Friday, it was anything but winterlike with both days eclipsing 60 degrees in many locations. Then came Friday night. Many people asked me just what the heck was going on with all of the lightning and thunderstorms which blasted through the Boston area. Even I was surprised while working out at the gym, seeing lightning light up the sky and hearing the loud claps of thunder rumble overhead. I did forecast some showers, but not thunderstorms (some even with small hail!).  So what happened? In my opinion, this was winter blasting back into the region with a vengeance after a two day thaw. We are still in a very energetic pattern, one which I believe will spell out a very turbulant period of weather over the next six weeks. The fact that we got such a squall line to move through during winter, shows that this cold front meant business as it sliced through New England. Not only did the temperatures plummet once again, but the howling winds which toppled trees and power lines throughout the region, is reason to believe that winter will not go away quietly this year. This March and April will be nothing like we experienced last year. If you have forgotten already, last spring was the warmest on record in New England! In next week’s blog I will let you know what kind of spring we are in for here in New England. Here’s a little hint, don’t put away the snow shovels just yet, and keep those spring jackets in the closet until further notice!

With this being President’s Day weekend, it’s time to talk a little weather history. Back on this date in 2003, Boston was pummeled by a massive snowstorm. Alot of people may not remember this storm, due to the timing of the event, which fell over the weekend and during the holiday.  Many people will be surprised to know that this was Boston’s largest snowfall on record, even beating out the famed Blizzard of 78′! This was a very cold storm, during a very cold winter. The snow was very low density, which allowed it to accumulate quickly. In addition, with the bitterly cold air moving over the relatively warm ocean, Logan airport was in the perfect spot to receive repetitive intense snow bands, which ended up accumulating 27.6″ of snow! This storm also dumped excessive amounts of snow down through the mid-atlantic region as well. Although a very impressive storm, it pales in comparison to the Great Blizzard of 1978 in many peoples minds. This storm had the snow, but it did not have the hurricane force winds, nor the devastating coastal flooding as in 1978. In the end, many people, (except me and a few others), don’t even remember the event.

On to the outdoor winter recreational forecast. I will give this week a 6 out of 10 on the severity scale. As of this writing, the flurries continue to swirl around my window out there. Expect the flurries to continue into the afternoon  with no more than an inch accumulation. This is important, as an inch accumulation will put this winter into the #10 spot for top ten snowiest winters on record. We’ll see if we can continue to climb up this ladder as we move into the last part of winter. It will be chilly, with highs not far from freezing. There may be some brightening of the overcast later in the afternoon. Look for clearing skies overnight under icy cold conditions, lows will be mainly in the teens. Tuesday will feature sunny weather amidst a deep blue sky, don’t be fooled though, as it will be windy and bitterly cold, highs will struggle to reach the mid 20′s. Expect even colder weather for your Tusday night under clear skies, lows will be in the single digits in the suburbs, and teens in the urban areas. Watch for moderating temperatures for your Wednesday and Thursday under fair conditions. Temperatures will rebound into the mid 30′s on Wednesday, and possibly the lower 40′s on Thursday. Expect inclement condtions to move into the area on Thursday night and continue into Friday. Right now, this system looks to bring mainly rain to the Boston area, with perhaps some snow to ski country. At this point, Saturday looks to be blustery and colder, with highs in the mid 30′s. Sunday could bring another round of rain south and snow north, however this could change this far out. I will keep you posted if conditions warrant. With the colder weather, look for ski resorts to groom the trails and be able to make snow this week. They may even get some natural snow later in the week, so conditions are improving!

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, we will already be at the end of meteorologic winter, which ends on Feruary 28th. I will review the three months which have passed, and preview what might be in store for us this March and also for spring. In the meantime, if you are a winter lover, revenge can be sweet. If you love spring, hope is right around the corner for you as well!

Pete

Spring fevah! 2/14/11

With the Red Sox beginning spring training , temperatures soaring into the 50′s, and the groundhog running around telling everyone that spring has come early, Bostonians will be come down with a serious case of spring fevah this week! People will be out walking along Castle Island in Southie, jogging with shorts and tank tops along the Charles, and there may even be a few sightings of people breaking out the flip flops! By the end of this week I predict that possibly up to 50% of the current snow pack will melt. This will be good news for those of us who have been navigating through the city as of late. Personally, I know the snowbanks are starting to shrink, as I can now pull out of my driveway with just two or three back and forths, where a week ago it was four or five! However, I must say, the snow this year has some incredible staying power. Although it has been above freezing for the past several days, the snow just didn’t seem to have been melting at all! I believe it’s the consistency of the snow which is making it more difficult to melt. We’ve had alot of wet snow this year, with periods of brief thaws which has developed an icy crust on top, thus making it difficult for the snow to melt and evaporate. Nonetheless, when temperatures soar into the 50′s later this week, nothing will be able to stop the cycle of the earth, which is to melt what has fallen and to start the process all over again!

Now for a quick lesson in meteorology 101. There will be some rapid temperature changes this week. If you read some of the technical discussions from the National Weather Service you will see that they use a term called advection quite a bit. Simply put, advection means a transfer of one type of airmass to another. In other words, today we have warm air advecting into the region with southwest winds, resulting in temperatures well up into the 40′s. . Later tonight, a cold front will come through the region, this will begin the process of cold air advecting into New England for tomorrow with northwest winds. After tomorrow, warm air will begin to advect back into the area once again, bringing us our taste of spring fever! I will have more about this warm spell in my forecast in a bit.

Today is Valentine’s Day. To me, that can only mean one thing…historic snowstorms! Over the years, there have been some historic snowstorms that have hit New England around this date. Today, I would like to briefly talk about three of these storms. Back in 1940, a severe blizzard struck Boston on Valentine’s Day, with 10 to 20″ of snow with gale force winds. In more recent times, another blizzard struck Boston on February 12th, 2006. This storm hit after a record warm January. Up to 18″ of snow fell in Boston, along with strong winds. The unusual aspect of that storm was the warm weather which preceeded the storm and followed the storm. In fact, the snow was practically gone a few days after the event. The final storm hit just one year later right on Valentine’s Day. This storm hit interior New England particulary hard, with up to 3 ft of snow in Vermont! Along the coast, it was a mess all day, with up to 6″ of sleet, snow and freezing rain, making flower deliveries a real challenge for everybody! It is interesting to note with these storms occurring around Valentine’s Day, that there was a mini baby boom in the northeast part of the country 9 months after the storms!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter recreational forecast. This week will be rated a 4 out of 10 on the severity scale (not so severe). Look for mild temperatures for the rest of your Monday, with variable amounts of clouds along with some sunshine. Temperatures will warm to the mid to upper 40′s. Tonight will feature a sharp cold front moving through the area(a quick snow shower?) with plummeting temperatures and gusty winds. Look for lows to drop into the teens…brrr! Tuesday will be the coldest day of the week. It will feature plenty of sun but with  temperatures only in the 20′s. Wednesday will start off very cold in the single digits and teens, but end up mild, with highs reaching 40 degrees in the afternoon. Look for spring fever to move into the region for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will reach into the low 50′s on Thursday, and possibly close to 60 on Friday, depending on how much sun we see! Another cold front will move through Friday night, possibly with some showers, bringing an end to the party. Right now, next weekend looks much colder, but on the dry side. Highs will be dropping from the 40′s to the 30′s on Saturday, and possibly struggle to reach 32 on Sunday! This thaw will not affect the ski resorts too much. It’s coming with very little rain and fog, so snow melt will be minimal.

That’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will let you know why I said winter is not over for us here in New England. Here is a hint, next week looks alot different than this week! I may even have to update this forecast again before this week is out! In the meantime, enjoy the spell of spring fever, come next week, you may a few choice words for that groundhog!

Pete

A welcome change…2/7/11

After an unprecedented barrage of blizzards and cold, Mother Nature is going to ease the gas pedal for a time for snow weary New Englanders. This does NOT mean winter is over! I had a chance to read some weather discussions from a few meteorologists, and if you took them literally, you would think that it’s time to put away the shovel and break out the flip flops. Yes, a break is coming, but we should know better here in New England. The cruelest time of the year is still ahead of us. The weather factors which brought us near record breaking snowfalls recently is going to ease for a time. In fact, you may even come down with a case of spring fever come next week at this time. However, I believe winter will be back. The Greenland block which delivered near record amounts of snow to the region, will reload come late february, and persist well into March this year. I’m not expecting another 70″ of snow, but persistant shots of snow and cold will put this winter into record breaking territory in the end, which should be sometime in April. Much like last summer was the endless summer, this will be the winter’s version of last summer.

As with most things, it could of been worse. Last night, while watching the Super Bowl, I was talking with family members, and part of the topic if conversation was about the weather. They all asked me if this was going to continue. I told them that up until last Thursday, computer models were predicting two more significant snowfalls, and then possibly a blizzard by the end of this week! Everone gasped at the thought! The models have since backed off on this idea, which are now painting a much gentler picture for us this week. As I have mentioned in previous blogs, there is no one out there who loves storms and snow more than I do. However, delivering 25 cu ft refrigerators in 3 ft of snow do not mix well together! So even I welcome the break!

Briefly on to a bit of weather history. I would not be a weather fanatic if I didn’t mention the bench mark storm which we measure by today. I’m talking about the Great Blizzard of 1978. This storm, which began on Monday, february 6th, hammered eastern Massachusetts for two days with 25 to 50″ of snow. In addition to the snow, hurricane forced winds drifted the snow up to first floor levels. Hundreds of cars were standed on Rt.128, and 17 people perished. High waves and coastal flooding devastated areas along the coast, leading emergency officials to rescue people stranded from the rising water. Yes, we have had storms since the blizzard, and some big ones, but none have been able to match the snow, wind and coastal devastation which that storm delivered. I feel fortunate to have been able to witness such an event.

Now for your weekly outdoor winter recreational forecast. I’ll give this week a 6 out of 10 on the severity scale. Look for increasing clouds for the rest of your Monday. It will be on the mild side with highs near 40 degrees. Tonight will feature some mixed rain and snow moving into the area after midnight, lows will be dropping to near freezing by morning. Watch out for snow, first thing Tuesday morning, along with some slippery roads. It’s not the amount of the snow, but rather the timing of it. The snow will taper off by late morning after accumulating 1 to 3.” It will be blustery for the rest of your Tuesday with chilly temperatures in the low 30’s. Wednesday through Friday now appear to be on the dry and cold side. If that storm decides to come a little closer than currently forecasted, I will let you know. Look for temperatures to be mainly in the 20’s.  The warm up which I was alluding to will not settle into New England until some time next week, so hold on a bit more! Saturday looks to be on the cold and dry side. There may be a touch of light snow on Sunday? Nothing serious. By the way, the rain which fell in Boston Saturday night, was snow up in ski country! So conditions continue to be excellent for skiiers and snow boarders alike!

Well that’s about it for now! In my next blog, I will continue to update everyone on just how long our mid-winter break will go on for, and when winter part II will arrive. In the meantime, take advantage of the break which is on the way. According to the groundhog, winter should be just about done …now what did I tell you about that groundhog?

Pete

More wet than white…2/5/11

Rapid changes…2/4/11

Just wanted to briefly update everyone concerning the storm coming up for during the day Saturday and Saturday night. After reviewing the latest computer guidance, it appears as if parts of New England may be in for some more heavy wet snow. A storm is gathering strength down by the gulf of Mexico this evening, and is ready to race up the coast towards New England on Saturday. This will not be a blockbuster storm. However, with all of the snow which we already have on the ground, any additional accumulation will be just adding salt to the wound. In addition, this storm will not fall all as snow in the Boston metropolitan area. If you live anywhere inside of Rt. 128 expect a mixture of rain and snow to develope during the late morning and not to accumulate during the day. However, as we get towards evening, I expect this sloppy mixture to change to a period of wet snow, and possibly accumulate 1 to 3 inches tomorrow night with some slippery driving. If you live north and west of Rt.128 expect more snow than rain to fall with 3 to 6 inches of wet snow to fall. If you live north and west of I495, especially in the Worcester hills and southern New Hampshire towards the coast, expect 6 to possibly as much as 10 inches to fall. If you wake up early Sunday morning, you will be treated to a winter wonderland landscape, especially if you live inland away from the ocean. If you plan on going skiing on Sunday expect a great day, with some new snow and milder weather. Look for a milder day overall for everyone for your Super Bowl Sunday with temperatures possibly getting into 40’s (spring fever!!). Watch out though! I mentioned in the headline some rapid changes coming. A new development may be a rapidly intensifying storm Monday night into Tuesday morning which may bring more accumulating snow and colder weather across the area. I will update you on this potential in my blog Monday morning!

Pete

Wild winter to continue! 1/31/11

We are two thirds of the way through meteorological winter and I have some interesting observations which I would like to share with you today. In last weeks blog I mentioned that I have some good news for those looking for a way out of this relentless winter. It’s not much, but considering where we are, it’s a glimmer of hope, at best. Today, January 31st, marks the first day when the average high temperature goes up 1 degree. Yes, the long haul to spring has begun, here in the depths of winter. In addition, the sunsets will be moving past 5:00 o’clock this week, I’m sure you have begun to notice the longer days. Wednesday is also Groundhog’s day. This is the day when we let a rodent determine whether we have six more weeks of winter or not. Hello! All of us don’t need a groundhog to let us know six more weeks of winter are on the way. We all know that here in New England it’s usually more like 12 more weeks anyway! It’s all good fun. Actually, this winter reminds of the movie Groundhog day with Bill Murray, with a snowstorm blasting through our area every few days or so. It’s becoming quite the comedy!

On a more serious topic, winter 2010-11 is quickly becoming one of historical proportions here. I don’t have to tell you how high the snowbanks are, the dangerous driving conditions, roof collapses, ice dams, and where are we going to put all this snow! You have already experienced all of that. What I am going to tell you, that for the next two weeks, the Boston area is going to experience snow depths not seen around these parts since the Great Bizzard of 1978! As if we havn’t had enough, it now appears as if we have not one, but possibly two major winter storms coming this week! I have been studying and following New England weather practically my whole life, and I must say, I don’t recall anything as wild of a winter pattern than this. Anytime you combine below normal temperatures with well above normal precipitation in January, well, the results speak for themselves. No, it wasn’t the snowiest January on record, it’s just that we havn’t had the normal thaws and meltdowns between storms like in other years. Logan airport measured 38.3″ of snow this January, making it the third snowiest on record, much of which is still on the ground! The most snow in any winter season measured at Boston’s Logan airport was back in the winter of 1995-96, when a whopping 106.7″ fell! If this keeps up, we may very well be on pace for a record breaking winter!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter recreational forecast. I am rating this week a 10 out of 10 on the severity scale (quite severe). This will be the toughest week of the winter. As mentioned earlier, will be one possibly two major storms this week. For the rest of your Monday, expect much colder weather than over the weekend, with sunny skies, followed by late afternoon high clouds. Temperatures will struggle into the lower 20′s. Clouds will continue to increase and thicken overnight Monday, there will be no snow overnight. It will be cold with lows in the teens. Expect a very snowy day to unfold for your Tuesday, with hazardous road conditions and cold temperatures in the 20′s. The snow should begin right after the morning commute and continue all day and into the evening. I’m expecting a widespread 4 to 6″ of snow to accumulate during the day. That’s just the first part of the storm. The main storm will still be out by Chicago giving them blizzard conditions. Snow should taper a bit to flurries overnight Tuesday. Wednesday will turn out to be a very stormy day throughout New England. It will be a very complex storm, originating in the upper midwest, then transfering its energy to the New Jersey coast. When storms do this, it locks the cold air over New England, also called cold air damming. This will result in a very wintry storm across the area. For areas north of the Mass. Pike, expect this storm to fall as mainly snow, to the tune of 15 to 20.” Across the city of Boston, it will be a much more complicated situation. Precipitation will fall heavily throughout the day, with anything from heavy snow, to heavy sleet and possibly even some freezing rain. This will be a dangerous storm to be out in, and to clean up from. Later on in the storm, as winds back in more to the north, precipitation will transition back to snow, and possibly fall heavily for several hours. Right now, Boston is the toughest call as far as accumulations go, but I could see an addtional foot of snow and mixed preciptation fall before it winds down Thursday morning. The further one travels south of the city, the more rain will be involved, holding down accumulations significantly. Winds should not be a significant factor with this type of a storm. Thursday may start off with some light snow or flurries, but this will end during the morning, with mostly cloudy skies (maybe some afternoon sun?) for the remainder of the day. It will be on the cold side with highs in the 20′s. Friday should feature dry conditions along with some sun. It will be on the cold side again, with highs in the upper 20′s. As for next weekend, computer models have been showing yet another rapidly intensifying nor’easter coming up the coast. If this trend continues, expect possibly another heavy snowfall across the area. Sunday looks to dry out at this point, and continue cold. It goes without saying, skiing and snowmobile conditions will be ideal for the upcoming weekend (if you can get out of your house)! Overall, expect a week full of hazardous rapidly changing winter weather condtions across the area. I will update this blog later in the week for the latest on the weekend storm possibility. 

Well that’s about it for now! In my next blog I will preview what the rest of February may have in store for us, as well look back in weather history to a storm which hit Boston back in 1978. In the meantime, get ready for a wild week of New England winter weather, and don’t trust that groundhog, even if he doesn’t see his shadow!

Pete

More heavy snow…1/25/11

Just had a chance to look over some of the latest computer guidance for the upcoming winter storm, and I have some new information which I would like to pass along to everyone. After waffling back and forth, the models seem to be coming into better agreement with the storm. It now appears that this will be a quick hitting storm, starting tomorrow at around 6:00 p.m., and finishing Thursday morning around 9:00 a.m. This will not be our biggest storm of the winter. However, due to the recent accumulation of past storms, and the expected consistancy of the snow, the hardship of the clean up will be significant. At this point, the heaviest precipitation looks like it will fall from Providence, R.I. to Boston, Ma. to Plymouth, Ma. Withinin this area you can expect anywhere from 6 to 12 inches of heavy wet snow. This has not changed much from my forecast from yesterday. It is important to note, that the storm looked worse yesterday, with computer models printing out heavier precipitation totals over a larger portion of the area than today’s runs. Nonetheless, expect a significant winter storm to affect the I95 corridor tomorrow night, with hazardous driving conditions. By the way, not to throw salt on the wound, but there could be even more snow Saturday, maybe another few inches. I will update this blog tomorrow if conditions warrant, and I will also keep an eye out for Saturday’s situation.

Pete

Depths of winter…1/24/11

With a deep snowpack on the ground, and 95% of New England plunging to below zero actual air temperature last night, I think it’s a good time to declare that we are in the depths of winter right now. And what a winter it has been so far. Over the weekend, Boston surpassed its seasonal snowfall average (approx. 42″ at Logan airport) with a 7.5″ snowstorm on Friday. This pushes us up to close to 50″ of snow so far this season, and it’s still only January. In addition to the snow, Boston dipped to below zero last night for the first time in 6 years. Many communities away from the city and the ocean had low temperatures between minus 10 to minus 25 degrees! This is truly pipe crackling, hair freezing, dead battery kind of cold! With talk of yet another potential major winter storm looming towards midweek, people are beginning to wonder, just what the heck is going on here? The quick answer to this is that we are in the midst of a good old fashioned New England winter, one which shows no signs of letting up any time soon! For those looking for relief from the cold and snow, I have none. You will either have to continue to keep hibernating, or catch a flight somewhere to the southern extremeties of the states to escape the cold. Looking way into the long range, the extreme weather pattern may ease a bit in later February, only to perhaps return during March and even April!

Keeping with the winter theme, it’s time for a little weather history. This time of year, about the third week in January, has been a notorious time for historic winter storms. I would like to briefly talk about two storms which struck Boston, and eastern Mass. The first one struck on January 21 st, 1978, and was the first of two blizzards that year. I think we all know what the second blizzard was, I will talk about that one next month. The one in January was a fierce storm in it’s own right, hitting the Boston area with 20 to 30″ of wind driven snow, in a short period of time. This storm was forecasted to mostly rain along the coast, however the quick intensification of the storm shocked meteorologists as the flakes accumulated at a rapid rate. The second storm happened in more recent times. This blizzard struck eastern Mass. and especially Cape Cod very hard. In fact, many people down the Cape call this storm, their storm of the century. The storm struck over the weekend of January 22nd back in the heavy winter of 2005. The set up was classic, with arctic high pressure crested over the top of New England, and a slow moving rapidly intensifying storm moving south of New England. The end result was a true blizzard for east coast Mass. and especially the south shore of Boston and the Cape. Many areas received anywhere from 22 to 38″ of wind blown snow. As mentioned earlier, the Cape was especially hit hard, as the storm lingered there through the second day, as storm force winds and heavy snow created drifts of up to 10 feet high!

Now for your weekly outdoor winter recreational forecast. I’m giving this week another 9 out of 10 on the severity scale, due to the potential winter storm and bitter cold weather. Look for deep blue skies but bitter cold temperatures for the rest of your Monday. High temp.’s will struggle through the single digits to the lower teens. Tonight will be another bitterly cold night, with most of New England falling to between 0 and 20 below. There will be some increasing clouds later, which will help stop the temperatures from falling further.  Tuesday will be a wintery day, with mostly cloudy skies with some light snow from time to time. I’m not looking for heavy accumulations, generally less than 2 inches, however any snow falling after such frigid temp.’s could make for some icy spots on the roads. This snow is in response to some warmer air coming into New England from the southwest, lifting up over the cold air. Once this area of snow moves out, things should be quiet into Wednesday. Now for the tough part of the forecast. Once again, computer models have been all over the place for the midweek storm. Without much guidance to go by, I will offer you what I think may happen with this storm. Here is the set up. A storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico (as many have this winter) and will start heading up the coast. This will not be your textbook storm, as a few ingredients will be missing. However, as been the case with many other storms this winter, this storm may end end up being an overachiever when all is said and done. First, arctic high pressure will be moving well east of New England. For all snow on the coast, we would rather have the high anchored to the north of us. As this is happening, the storm will merge with another storm moving in from the west. At this point, look for another batch of cold air to meet up with this storm at the last second. If all this occurs as I’m thinking, watch for the following to be played out. Look for snow, or a mix of rain and snow to overspread the area sometime Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will warm to the mid 30′s along the coast. Now, as the storm rapidly intenifies just south of the Cape Wednesday night, look for the mixture of snow and rain to change to heavy wet snow from Boston north and west. This heavy snow should continue until around noontime on Thusday. At this point accumulations are difficult to pin down, but I would say a minimum of 6″ to possibly a maximum of 12″ of heavy wet snow seems likely. Check back with me for an important update on this storm as more information comes in. Look for cold , but not bitter weather to return for this weekend. Oh yeah, there may be some more snow on Sunday (not too much!). Expect excellent ski and snow mobile conditions for this weekend and the foreseeable future!

That’s about it for now! In my next blog, I offer some good news for those getting tired of winter and looking forward to spring. I will also review how the month of January turned out, as well as preview what February may have in store for us. In the meantime, think back to some of the blogs I wrote from the incredible summer which we had, just to reasure you that things will eventually change again!

Pete

Winter storm warning…1/20/11

It’s all about the hype…1/17/11

I was at the gym last Tuesday, the night before the storm, and was chatting with a good friend of mine. We were talking about the impending storm, and he brought up some interesting observations which I would like to share with everyone. He was asking me whether it was his imagination, or has the hype for storms become excessive around here recently? With schools, businesses, organizations and any other thing you can think of that involves taking a step outside closing down shop the day BEFORE the actual storm hits, we both agreed that it’s out of control. He mentioned to me that it got to the point that he was talking to people  and they were actually making plans, and banking on the day off as if it was automatic. For one, nothing is a sure thing, especially when it comes to the weather. Just look at the Patriots game yesterday…ugh! Just last year at this time, we had a similar storm predicted to hit the area, only to have a few wet flakes fall. It was an embarassment to meteorologists, the media, and the city of Boston. This year, they did it all over again, predicting the major storm to hit last Wednesday. This time around, the forecast worked out, the storm did hit, and everybody got their snow day!

So why all of the hype? I believe, like may things, it all comes down to dollars and cents. Weather and storms are big business these days. Not only for the media and their ratings, but also for people who run small and big businesses, the airline industry, and for all of the cities and towns that have to prepare for storms. In addition, people who have families need to know what the weather is going to be like to prepare for cancellations and their schedules. Add all of this up, in today’s high stressed environment, and you have a recipe for excessive hype and overdoing the coverage for the event. From a meteorological point of view, the advancement in forecasting these storms, has been nothing short of amazing. No, they don’t always get it right, but who does anyway?

So what about the weather for this week? It does appear to me that our stormy pattern of late will continue this week. I would rate this week a 7 out of 10 on the winter severity index scale. Look for sunny weather under blue skies for the rest of your Monday, it will be cold, with highs only in the low 20′s. Clouds will be on the increase overnight as our next storm system begins to approach us from the south, temp.’s will fall to near 20 tonight. Expect a sloppy day Tuesday. Snow will begin first thing in the morning and continue until around noon in Boston. I’m expecting possibly up to 2″ of snow to accumulate before the snow begins to transition to rain in the city around noontime. Look for rain to continue in the city well into Tuesday evening with temperatures rising into the upper 30′s. If you live north and west of Rt.128 watch for snow to change to a icy mix of sleet and freezing rain after about 3 or 4″ of accumulation. Later on in the afternoon this area may also change to plain rain. If you live anywhere north and west of Rt.495 expect 4 to possibly as much as 6″ of snow before any mixing ocurrs during Tuesday evening. If you live along the immediate N.H. and Maine coastline, expect 2 to 3″ of snow then a slower transition to rain later Tuesday afternoon. Watch for icy conditions just a few miles inland from these locations however. Northern New England and the ski resorts will do quite well with this storm, with in excess of 6″ of snow with very little mixing. Look for leftover light rain and snowshowers Wednesday morning, with drying conditions during the afternoon. It will be on the mild side with temp.’s around 40 degrees with a brisk west wind. Expect colder conditions to move into the region on Thursday with temp.’s back into the 20′s. We should have some morning sunshine followed by some increasing late day clouds ahead of the next storm. Right now, it appears as if Friday could turn into a snowy day, with a quick hitting storm sliding by to our south. It does not appear to be a major storm at this point, but moderate accumulations are possible, maybe in the 3 to 6″ zone. I’ll update this blog if the storm looks to be stronger than currently forecasted. Whatever happens, next weekend looks to be on the cold side with a brisk wind, but no precipitation.

That’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will look back in weather history  at the first of two blizzards to hit Boston back in 1978. I will also look at what the rest of  January will have in store for us. In the meantime, keep the snowshoes, umbrella and the  shovel handy this week, you will need them all!

Pete