Turning the corner…1/3/11
Happy New Year to everyone! To start things off, I have some good news and some bad news to share with you today. First, the good news. The good news is that we have passed the shortest day of the year, and from now until the summer solstice in June, the days will be getting longer! I know that is very good news for alot of people out there. It’s a subtle change, but you can start to see the difference in the sunlight already. Unfortunately, that is about the only bit of good news I have for you in the world of weather for this morning. There is an old saying in weather that holds true to this day. The saying goes, “as the days lengthen the cold strengthens.” This is because of the phenomina which I’ve told you about in the past called latent heating and cooling. In other words, there is a lag time in the fall and early winter for the oceans to cool down relative to the land, thus delaying the onslaught of severe winter weather. The same holds true in the spring and early summer, as it takes longer for the ocean to warm up, thus delaying our spring many years. In other words, before we get to spring this year, we have a long way to go! This should come as no big surprise for any of us who live in New England.
Now that we have turned the corner and are into another year, I thought that this would be a good time to review what the weather was like in 2010, and also to give you a preview as to what January may have in store for us. One word comes to mind when I think of the weather in 2010… extreme! In fact, 2010 may go down as the warmest year on record here in Boston! From flooding rains in February and especially March, to an unusually warm spring, then a blistering hot summer, 2010 had something for everyone. The year ended with day after Christmas blizzard with 18.2 inches of snow falling in Boston. In fact, this was Boston’s 4th straight snowier than normal December, also ranking as the eighth snowiest on record. In addition, after a much warmer than normal year, December was decidely colder than normal, making it a very festive time for the holidays, but not so much for your wallet or pocketbook!
So what about January? Well after a very pleasant early January thaw, which saw alot of our snow from the blizzard melt away, it now appears as if we may be in for quite a wintry month. Typically, January is our coldest and snowiest month of the year. We “average” about 12″ of snow, some years not so much, while other years we can triple that number. The month starts out with highs averaging in the mid 30′s and lows in the lower 20′s. Temperatures drop to their lowest points in mid January, before slowly starting to warm up very slowly towards the very end of the month. For this January, I’m expecting near or slightly below average temperatures, with above average snowfall. I’m expecting one to perhaps even two heavy snowfalls (six inches or greater) to affect the Boston area. One of these storms could even be a major storm of 12″+. So you may aske me, Pete, what happened to the less than normal snow you predicted for this winter? Well, it now appears as if the temperature profile for the month of November has become the player which I thought it may become after all. In addition, the jet stream seems to be surpressed further to the south, perhaps due to all the volcanic activity we’ve been having over the summer? These were some of the wildcards which I talked about in my winter forecast to keep an eye out for. All of this, combined with unusually strong high latitude blocking and an ongoing strong La Nina, has made this winter possibly one to remember for a long time. Stay tuned!
Now for your winter weekly outdoor activity forecast. I’m giving this week an 8 out of 10 on the severity scale, due to colder weather and possibly a late week winter storm. After a milder stretch last week, expect the mountains to crank the snow guns and receive some natural snow this week, so expect improving conditions heading into next weekend! As for your Monday, expect sunny skies, but much colder than recent days, with highs only in the lower 30′s. Look for increasing clouds overnight, but no precipitation, lows will be in the 20′s. Tuesday will feature variable clouds and some sun, it will be on the blustery side, with highs in the mid 30′s. There also may be some snow flurries or even a touch of light snow during the afternoon. No accumulations are expected. Expect a mixture of sun and clouds on Wednesday with temperatures in the mid 30′s once again. The period Thursday through Saturday looks complicated at this point. A storm will develop south of New England and possibly intensify into a major nor’easter, starting Thursday evening and continuing into Saturday morning. Timing and intensty will have to be ironed out in future updates, but the potential is there. It should clear out and turn windy and cold on Sunday. As always, check back for updates on this storm as condtions warrant!
Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will discuss in more detail what the outdoor winter recreational conditions are like out there (skiing, snowmobile & ice fishing) and what we may expect in the coming weeks. In the meantime, , if you’re thinking spring, count the extra minute of daylight we gain every day, it will pay off in a couple of months! Otherwise, come over to my side, and enjoy a good winter storm or two?
Pete