Quiet…for now 12/6/10

Many years by this time, we would have already had our first snowfall. In last weeks blog I talked to you about that historic snowstorm which struck Boston back on this date in 2003. Looking back on the records, it does appear that our first snowfall does generally occur about this time of the year. Last year, for instance, we had 4″ of wet snow in Boston on this date. It does seem to go in cycles. Boston can go years without a significant snow until after Christmas. Speaking of Christmas, this is about the time of year when everybody starts wondering whether we will have a white Christmas or not. Historically, if you live in Boston, your chances are not that good. The chances of Boston having a white Christmas (defined as having 1″ of snow on the ground on Christmas morning) is approximately 25%, or about 1 and 4. This statistic varies greatly over the years. For instance, Boston has had a white Christmas for that past three consecutive years! Your chances for snow on the ground on Christmas morning increases rapidly the further away you live from the ocean. At this point, December is looking to be on the colder side, with several chances for storms. I will keep everyone updated on your chances for a white Christmas this year.

Just a quick note on this years temperature departure for November. I knew it was going to be close, but after reviewing the final numbers with the National Weather Service, it does appear as if November finished 1 tenth of a degree below normal for the month. You may say, why the heck is this so important? Well, for one thing, this breaks the consecutive streak of above normal temperatures for each month, which started back last January. This may also be the start of a trend towards a colder winter on the way. In addition, November temperatures are a key factor in determining how much snowfall Boston receives during the winter. It has been proven statistically that when temperatures finish at or below normal for November, Boston’s snowfall turns out to be greater than average (42″ is average at Logan Airport). I did not go for this in my winter forecast, so it will be very interesting to see how this all turns out as we move through this winter!

Now it’s time for your outdoor recreational winter forecast. I am rating this week a 6 out of 10. Remember, the higher the number, the more wintry weather we are going to have. Look  for blustery and cold conditions for the rest of your Monday, with mostly cloudy skies, temperatures will be in the mid 30′s. By the way, anyone who lives up in northern Maine will be getting hit hard today with a heavy snowstorm! Expect a biting wind tonight at Gillette Stadium, as the Patriots freeze out the Jets. Temperatures will be in the 20′s, under dry conditions. Tuesday looks similar to today, with maybe a little less wind, and a little more sun. Watch for a passing snow shower first thing Wednesday morning, then clearing skies and turning windy again. Temperatures will be cold, with highs  only in the mid 30′s. Look for a some sun through some high clouds on Thursday, with temperatures only in the upper 20′s, brrrrrr! By Friday, we may actually see our first snow of the season! It doesn’t look heavy at this point, but do expect to see possibly some light snow with an inch or two of accumulation. Look for an improving ski and snow mobile forecast this week. All areas will be making snow, and some areas will receive natural snow, especially today, and then again later in the week! By next weekend, things may start to get very interesting. Long range computer models are indicating that a major storm may be developing somewhere over the eastern part of the U.S. The exact path is crucial, whether we get a blizzard, or a windswept rainstorm. I will keep you updated during the week for this possibility. This would begin on Sunday and continue into Monday.

Well that’s about it for now. Next week, I will look back in weather history and talk about another historic December storm which struck southern New England. Also, look for an update from me on the potential winter storm for next weekend. Until then, be prepared for winter time conditions this week, as winter starts to make some noise!

Pete

Looking ahead…11/29/10

Hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving Day weekend out there! With this being the end of the month, it’s time to look back and see how November turned out, as well as look ahead to what December may bring us this year. Looking back on my forecast, it appears as if I was a little off with my prediction for November. Yes, it will be our coolest month average wise since last January. However, when the final numbers come in by Wednesday morning, I do believe that the scale will tilt to another slightly above normal month. This will make this the eleventh straight month with temperatures averaging above normal here in Boston! As for precipitation, it looks like it will end up slightly below average (average is close to 4″). Boston’s Logan Airport only reported a trace of snow this November, with many other areas also not reporting snow this November. This marks six straight November’s without any measureable snow here in Boston, which is becoming somewhat unusual. All in all however, despite the lack of wintry weather, November 2010 will go down in the record books as really nothing special, a pretty average month.

So what about December? Remember, December 1st marks the beginning of meteorologic winter. Typically, this is the month when Boston’s snow season gets going. On average, Boston receives about 8″ of snow in December. This average can vary greatly from season to season. Generally speaking, the ocean is still usually too warm for heavy snowstorms for Boston in December. There are definite exceptions to this rule however. Back on December 5th – 7th, 2003, the Boston area was hammered by a two day nor’easter with up to 30″ of snow across the area (some places even more!). Incredibly, the Patriots still played there game down in Foxborough that weekend, icing out the Dolphins during the snowbowl! In addition to snow, expect temperatures to start taking a significant nosedive as we head towards the depths of winter. So what do I think about this December? Well right now, patterns are all over the place, with the west currently bearing the brunt of winter weather. It looks like the jet stream is trying to configure itself to allow some of this wintry weather to make it to New England over the next several weeks. I do believe that at some point, the cold weather will mix with some moisture to bring the area a snowstorm or two. It’s a very complicated forecast right now, one that’s very volatile, as patterns are trying to become established. Expect a period of much colder weather arriving by this weekend. Come next week, I should have a better idea on how the rest of the month may turn out…So stay tuned!

Now for your outdoor winter recreational forecast. Staring this week, my rating system is going to change until we get to spring. During the summer, the higher the number the more beautiful the weather. Now, that same number will dictate how severe the winter weather will be for the week (the higher the number, the more severe the weather will be). In addition I will give a brief ski and snow mobile forecast. Without further delay, let’s get started! This week will be 4 out of 10 (not much wintry weather). Expect today to be mostly sunny with slightly below normal temperatures, in the low 40’s. Tonight will be dry and chilly. Tuesday will feature increasing clouds across the area, with milder temperatures, making it up into the low 50’s by late in the day. Look for cloudy and mild weather for your Tuesday night, there may be a few light shower, but no washout. Wednesday will be a stormy type of a day, with windy warm weather and temperatures possibly reaching 60! Watch for a heavy rain to move into the area by late in the afternoon into the evening. There may be a few showers left over on Thursday morning, otherwise, expect clearing skies and cooler weather, with temperatures falling through the 40’s. Right now, Friday through Sunday look to be on the dry side, with colder weather moving into the area. Watch for a few flurries possible, but no organized storm is anticipated at this point. Needless to say, ski country will be getting off to a slow start with no snow and warm weather this week. Look for conditions to begin to improve towards next weekend as the they turn on the snow guns.

That’s about it for now. Next week, I will let you know when to possibly expect our first snowfall, as well as a more detailed look at the rest of December. I will also update the outdoor and ski forecast. Until then, keep the light jackets and the winter coats handy, you will need them both this week!

Pete

Winter 2010-11…11/22/10

Forecasting New England weather for one week out is challenging, forecasting for a whole winter season can be nothing short of a miracle if you get it right! The folks at Accuweather.com do a very good job at it. Some seasoned local meteorologists like Harvey Leonard and Barry Burbank also get it right more times than not. With studying the weather being a lifelong hobby of mine, I too, would like to offer my forecast to you for winter 2010-11. So with all that being said, at this point and time, this is my best hypothetical guess for the upcoming winter season.

Mark Twain once said, “If you don’t like New England weather, just wait a minute, and it will change.” Such will be the case for the up coming winter. I am expecting a winter of great variability from temperatures to precipitation. This season, we will be under the influence of a strong La Nina. This is the opposite of El Nino, which we had last winter. La Nina, a cold pool of water in the southern Pacific ocean, is a phenominon which occurs in the winter time that changes the patterns which we are accustomed to. Typically, La Nina winters tend to be on the drier side here in southern New England, with rapid  fluctuations in temperatures. When you composite all of the La Nina winters which we’ve had in the past, they tend to average slightly below average snowfall and near to slightly above average in temperatures. How we get there is always interesting, as it’s usually the extremes which makes the averages! Many forecasters call these winters “I90 winters,” as most of the snowfall tends to fall north of the Mass Pike.

So, what do I think for the upcoming winter? Well after reviewing all of my signals which I use to determine my winter forecast, I’ve come to the following conclusions. To make it easier, I am going to break this down into three zones. Unlike last year, when the further one travelled south, the colder and snowier it was, this year will be the exact opposite. The further one goes north, the worse winter will be. This is how it should be though, shouldn’t it? So if you live in the Boston, Providence, Hartford area, (as much as I hate to forecast this) I am not expecting a particularly cold & snowy winter. Expect snowfall to be below average in Boston, who typically averages 42,” to end up being between 25 to 35.” Look for even less snow the further south you go. Look for snowfall to increase rapidly however, the further north one goes. If you live in a line from Portsmouth N.H. to Manchester N.H. to Bennington Vt. expect more of a normal winter when all is said in done, maybe a little less than normal, with snowfall ranging from 40 to 60 inches. If you live on a line from Portland maine, to concord N.H., to Rutland Vt., expect at or above normal snowfall this year, with amounts ranging from 60 to 80 inches. I am expecting alot of “inside runner” type of storms this year, generally passing west of New England. Certainly not as many nor’easters as last year. With this type of storm track, northern New England usually ends up with much more snowfall than southern New England, as the cold air can usually end up hanging on tougher than in southern areas. As for temperatures, I don’t see any signal for this being a very warm winter, just alot of variation, averaging near normal in the end. This is my best forecast at this point. I must say that I’m a little nervous that this line could shift slightly further south which I have it right now. I typically look at November temperatures as a predictor for the upcoming winter. This November will likely end up with below average temperatures, which usually calls for above average snow. I’m not calling for this right now, as I believe the La Nina signal will overpower this. Let’s see how I do!

Now let’s get back to something that’s something much more manageable, your weekly forecast! Expect this week to be a 7 out of 10 overall. Not bad for Thanksgiving week! Today looks to be on the mostly cloudy side, with milder temperatures than the past couple of days, with highs in the very low 50′s. Look for it to be cloudy milder tonight, with lows in the 40′s. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week, perhaps even until next spring? Look for a mostly cloudy sky, maybe some sunny breaks, temperatures are going to soar to possibly the mid 60′s! Wednesday will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with colder temperatures, highs will drop back into the 40′s. Look for colder weather Wednesday night, with lows dropping back into the 20′s and 30′s. Thanksgiving Day looks to start off on the cold side, with temperatures in the 20′s and 30′s in the morning, then warming up into the 40′s during the afternnon. Look for a sunny start to the day, but with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Thursday night might be tricky over the interior. There will be a storm passing to our west with rain moving into our area. There may be enough cold air left over in the interior for a period of snow or sleet, so be aware of that possible situation. Look for some left over rain for friday morning, then skies will clear during the afternnon. As for next weekend, look for partly sunny weather and brisk conditions, with a chance of some snow flurries. Temperatures will be on the colder side, with highs mainly in the upper 30′s.

That’s about it for now. Since next week will be the start of meteorological winter (Dec. 1st), I may try a new format for the weekly forecast. I will also look back and see how November turned out, and look ahead at what December has in store for us. In the meantime, I feel a little mentally exhausted at trying to forecast so far into the future, I’m going back to my personal motto, and that’s taking one day at a time!

Pete

A November gem…11/15/10

Despite the gloomy weather the past couple of days, and the prospects of a long winter ahead of us, we will always have this past Saturday to look back upon to remember just how beautiful the weather can be around here sometimes. To be sure, there wasn’t anything supersticious about the weather that day! Many areas of New England saw temperatures soar well into the 60′s, under brilliant sunshine and light winds. With everybody having fallen to 32 degrees, this stretch of weather was officially  classified as Indian Summer. Yes, it was shorter than our last stand with above normal temperatures, but was just as impressive due to the perfect conditions. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the month turns out. Despite getting off to a cold start, temperatures have been trending up once again, and we may keep this consecutive above normal month streak alive after all. Computer models, which were once forecasting frequent cold shots for the second half of November, have now been delaying this until possibly after Thanksgiving now. All of this have major implications for my winter forecast, which I will post next Monday…So stay tuned!

Now for your weekly weather forecast. Sorry I was late with the blog today, so today’s forecast was missed. That’s o.k., the weather stops for nobody anyway. It was a typical Monday by November standards, cloudy and cool with temperatures right at 50 degrees. How about the rest of the week? I’m forecasting this week to be a 7 out of 10 when all is said and done. Look for your Tuesday to be similar weather as today. It will be slightly warmer, with temp.’s in the mid 50′s. Tuesday evening looks dry at this point, but expect rain showers to develop any time after 11:00 P.M. if you’re out and about. Look for heavy showers first thing Wednesday morning, until about 9:00 A.M. Thereafter, we may break out into some sunshine with a southwest wind. If this happens, watch for temperatures to soar into the 60′s again! Starting on Thursday straight into the weekend look for sun, along with some clouds, and dry weather. Don’t expect 60′s though! Look for it to be in the lower 50′s Thursday, a chilly lower 40′s Friday, back to the lower 50′s Saturday, then cooling back to the mid 40′s for your Sunday. Most nights will be cold, 20′s for the suburbs, lower to mid 30′s for the city areas.

That’s about it for now. Next week, I will post my winter forecast for New England, as well as the all important Thanksgiving week travel forecast. In the meantime, enjoy the weather coming up this Wednesday, it may be the last gem Mother Nature gives up for a while!

Pete

Leaf attack! 11/8/10

It happens about this time every year. A gale blows through our area and one minute the trees have all their leaves on them, and the next minute, swoosh! They’re all gone! Such is the case when I woke up this morning and looked out my window. I thought that maybe I would see a blizzard of snowflakes with the storm that was in the area. Instead, I saw a blizzard of leaves swirling around the neighborhood! It’s amazing when you stop and think about it, the process of the changing of the seasons. No matter what season , I look at the change as a fresh beginning, a chance to start all over again. It’s a good time to re-assess goals, try something new, do something good for yourself! Mother Nature does the same thing. For example, last week I mentioned the change which occured on Halloween. Take a minute and think back a bit about what you were doing. Perhaps that weekend you were wearing shorts, raking leaves, taking a nice walk in the Arboretum. Then on Halloween night it was a different story! If you were out and about, I’m sure you had a heavy jacket on, gloves, and maybe a hat! The change from autumn to winter was abrupt this year. Yes, I said winter! The signs for a fast start are there. Boston has already reached 32 degrees, a full 5 weeks earlier than last year! In addition, many people saw either sleet or their first snow early this morning!

So what does this all mean? Looking back at my records, the summer began in a similar fashion. At the beginning of April, Boston’s temperatures soared into the 90’s. So does this mean I’m predicting a six month winter for Boston this year? I’m not ready to say that…just yet! At this time of the year alot of people are asking me what kind of winter New England is going to have this year. My official winter forecast will not be published until November 22nd. However, today, I will briefly talk about a few things which I look at to help me make this complicated prediction! I am not a scientist, nor a meteorologist. However, I do have a keen awareness of nature, and  possess a uncanny understanding of New Engalnd weather. So, with all that being said, some of the things which I look at to determine the winter forecast is studying the temperature and precipitation profiles for the month of November. I also follow these same trends from previous months. Ocean temperatures play a significant role in the weather patterns across the globe, as well as the phenomina named El Nino and La Nina. In addition to all of this, I closely monitor volcanic activity around the world, and sun spot cycles. Sometimes, it’s not so complicated. Sometimes it’s just a matter of being in touch with nature and having a feeling. Some of the non-scientific things which I look at range from geese flying south for the winter (tip off for a rough winter), number of heavy frosts in November, and how thick the fog was during October. And yes, I also look at everybodys favorite, the amount of acorns and squirrel activity!

Now onto your weekly forecast. This week does not look as complicated as last week! I’m expecting a 6 out of 10 again this week, due to the slow start. For the rest of your Monday, look for cloudy, damp, windy,cold conditions, with a stalled storm off of our coast, or typical November weather! Expect temperatures to struggle to the mid 40’s today. Look for similar weather for tonight and Tuesday. Watch for the weather to slowly improve by Wednesday afternoon, with some sunshine finally poking through. Don’t expect any warm temperatures though, as the flow will be off of the ocean, keeping it on the cool side, around 50. As we move towards the end of the week, look for more in the way of sunshine, with slowly moderating temperatures. By the time next weekend comes, it looks to be dry and sunny, with temperatures possibly approaching 60 by Sunday!

Well that’s about it for now! Check in next week for more information about our ever changing New England weather! I may even have a special surprise for people who are fans of Indian Summer! Until then, start raking those blizzard of leaves, because a month from now, it will be a blizzard of snowflakes!

Pete

A November chill…11/1/10

Now that October is over, it’s time to review how it turned out, and also look forward to what the transition month of November has in store for us. For a time, it appeared as if our consecutive streak of above normal temperatures for each month of 2010 was going to end this October. Most of the month was actually averaging a little below average, that is, until last week. I don’t think I need to spell out the details for you, as I think you remember how warm it was! The temperature departures were so above normal that it was shocking! I knew it was going to be warm, but not that warm! It certainly was warm enough to catapult October’s temperatures to above normal. This marks the 10th straight month with above normal temperatures here in Boston. It was also a fairly wet month, with nearly 4″ of rain falling. With fall being two thirds of the way over, so far, I would say we are having a warm, somewhat wet autumn.

Now, on to November! November is a transition month as we go from autumn to winter. You can look at it much the same way as the month of May. We are on the cusp of winter. This is the month that I watch weather patterns very carefully to determine what kind of a winter we might be in for. To some people, November can be a gloomy month. Statistics can prove this, as November tends to be our cloudiest month. We also average the most precipitation during November, with about 4″  on average. Temperature wise, as you might expect, continues the trend downward. At the beginning of the month, we average highs in the upper 50′s and lows in the lower 40′s. However, by the end of the month, highs are only in the upper 40′s and lows in the lower 30′s! By the way, November’s precipitation is not always rain! Boston usually experiences its first snowfall during November. Logan Airport averages about an inch and a half of snow during this month, more, of course, inland. In the winter, you will hear me use the term “averages” alot. Remember, it’s the extremes which makes the averages in any one location. Especially for snowfall and temperatures. Looking back at the records, Boston has not had any meaningful snow in November since 2004. It doesn’t snow every November in Boston, but when it does, it can be significant.

So what about this November? Are we going to keep our consecutive above normal streak alive? Is it going to snow? Is winter going to come early? So many questions,  so little time. At this point, I could probably write a book talking about winter weather, so I will give you the short version. Expect this November to average out colder and wetter than normal. I’m expecting the above normal streak to end this month, with below normal temperatures being the rule across most of New England. Expect snow to visit your community this November, especially with a storm around Thanksgiving. Does this mean no more Indian Summer? Is the warm air over until next April? No. Just because I’m forecasting a month of below average temperatures does not mean the end of some warm days. I’m expecting alot of rapid changes, which includes some warm days! I will be following the temperature and precipitation trends carefully over the next several weeks. Later in November I will release my own personal winter forecast…So stay tuned for that!

Now onto the forecast. Expect this week to be quite different than last week. Yesterday, while watching my nephew play football, I felt the chilling winds of fall taking hold. In fact, it turned out to be the coldest Halloween around here since 2002! For this week, I’m calling for a 6 out of 10. not that we won’t have any nice weather, but we also have inclement weather coming later in the week. Look for the rest of your Monday to feature sunny skies and crisp temperatures, with highs only in the upper 40′s at best. For anyone who hasn’t experienced a frost or freeze yet, you will tonigh. With clear skies and light winds, temperatires will plummet into the 20′s in most places, except low 30′s if you live within 2 miles of the ocean. Tusday will be very similar to today, maybe a couple of degrees warmer. Watch for some increasing clouds on Wednesday, with temp.’s struggling to 50. There is going to be a storm this week, and it will be significant. Look for a windswept rain for your Thursday and possibly lingering into your Friday. This storm may pivot a warm front through our area, so temp.’s may warm up into the low 60′s by Friday. Right now, next weekend is a bit iffy. I’m calling for clearing skies and temperatures on the mild side for Saturday, then cooling back to the 50′ by Sunday. However, there may be another storm to prolong the showers into Saturday. To tough to call at this point.

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will talk about in more detail at some of the signs I look for in determining my winter forecast. I will also be on the look out for any wintry weather or Indian Summer for us, and anything else which might strike some interest! In the meantime, keep in mind that many things are all relative, as a November chill will be sounding alot better than January’s slogan when that time comes!

Pete

A spell of warmth… 10/25/10

Why not just say Indian Summer? Well, I would like to, but it’s not so cut and dry. Yes, we do have some Indian Summer like warmth on the way this week, but let me explain some of the complications. First, if you live anywhere within the City of Boston, then you still havn’t experienced a 32 degree reading yet. Although many areas of New England have had their growing season end, officially at Logan Airport and the city have not had a frost or freeze yet. It’s like this every year though. Not only is the city warmer because of the urban heat island effect, but its also close to the ocean. Many times, while many rural areas outside of the city plummet into the 20’s on clear calm nights, the city will still be sitting at a toasty 40 degrees! On average, the city does not cool to 32 degrees until around November 7th. Last year it waited until December 7th, a record for so late in the year! Most people will say, who cares? Warmer weather is on the way this week, and except for people who follow the weather carefully, most people can give a hoot whether we’ve had a frost or not! Suffice to say, just about  85% of New England will experience Indian Summer like weather this week. Unfortanetly, this spell of Indian Summer is not going to be the kind like we’ve enjoyed in the past. I will explain this further in forecast later.

We are now entering the last week of October. There are a couple interesting things happening this week. First, peak fall colors finally arrive in the Boston area this week. Yesterday, while driving back from New Hampshire, I noticed some beautiful areas of color just along Rt.95. As I drove inside Rt. 128 , the color faded somewhat. This tells me that the color wave is just about ready to encompass areas within 128, and will peak around Boston right around Halloween. Remember, just because peak color passes our area this week, does not mean beautiful color will not exist well into the first week of November, especially along coastal communities. With this being said, this will be the last fall foliage report for this season. Next week is the start of November, and I will be focusing more on winter time subjects. The other interesting event happening this week is, of course, Halloween! I know my nieces and nephew are waiting anxiously for my Halloween forecast for this year! The weather at Halloween time always interests me. Halloween, to me, is a time of transition, from autumn weather, to winter. For this reason, the weather on Halloween can be anywhere from sunny and warm, to icy cold. Some years we can even have snow around Halloween!

Now on to the weekly outdoor forecast. This is going to be a tricky week with lots of changes, despite the Indian Summer like weather. I would rate this week a 7 out of 10, weighted heavily for the warm weather expected for a few days. For the rest of your Monday, look for mostly cloudy skies with temperatures perhaps making it into the low 60’s. Look for areas of rain and fog tonight with temperatures not dropping too much, with lows in the mid 50’s. With the warm front in the area, there may be enough lift in the atmosphere for a thunderstorm as well. Tuesday will most definitely start off on the damp side, with areas of low clouds and fog. This should burn off during the afternoon to possibly allow temperatures to make a run at 70. Tuesday evening looks to be on the mild side, but mostly dry. Wednesday looks like it may be the warmest day of the week. Look for some sunshine, after the morning fog burns off. If we get enough sun, we may have temperatures soar to the mid 70’s! Watch for showers, and possibly a scattered thunderstorm to roll through during the afternoon. Warm weather may continue for a good part of Thursday, with partly sunny skies and temp.’s in the mid 60’s. There may be a quick shower late Thursday. Watch for cooler, drier weather for Friday and Saturday, with temperatures back in the 50’s and lows in the 30’s. Right now, the weather for Halloween (and a big Patriots game in Foxboro) doesn’t look spooky at all! Look for some sun with clouds and temperatures fairly seasonal, in the mid to upper 50’s during the day, and 30’s at night.

That’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will review how the weather turned out for October, and will begin to preview what November may have in store for us. I will also begin to discuss what the upcoming winter may be like for us here in New Engalnd this year. My official forecast doesn’t come out for a few more weeks though. In the meantime, enjoy the treat Mother Nature has in store for us this week, because we know treats this time of the year is usually followed by some sort of a trick later!

Peter

Fall extravoganza! 10/18/10

Picture this, you’re driving through the White Mountains of New Hampshire, or the Green Mountains of Vermont this past weekend, and amidst the brilliant colors of autumn, the mountains in the background are capped in snow! I didn’t get to experience this personally, but I know from pictures that people took that this was the scene. After our early season nor’easter soaked eastern New England with heavy rains and howling winds, higher elevations of New Hampshire, and especially Vermont, were being plastered with up to 1 foot of snow. On the peak of Killington Mountain in Vermont, 1 foot of snow fell. Even more fell at the top of Mt. Mansfield. These scenic views is what makes this time of the year so special here in New England. Even here in Boston, the colors of fall are bursting behind a blue sky backdrop. You don’t have to travel far now to see spectacular foliage. True, the color is vivid in some areas, and muted in others, probably due to the hot dry summer we had. Overall, it looks like the red maples are doing very well this year for some reason. Regardless, the color wave is rapidly approaching Boston, and looks to peak around here right around Halloween. As promised, if you can’t take a trip to see the foliage, the color wave will be visiting your neighborhood very soon!

So what’s next? It appears as if we have a fairly tranquil stretch of weather coming up. That’s a good thing, we don’t want a gale storm blowing through here right when peak colors arrive! In fact, looking out for the rest of October, it looks like fairly seasonal weather , with no big storms coming. As of this writing, October is running slightly below average temperatures for a change, we’ll see if this persists until the end of the month. It remains to be seen whether we have another warm stretch of weather next week leading into Halloween. Currently, we have an amazing streak of warm Halloweens going on. I believe the past 4 or 5 Halloweens have had temperatures more like Memorial Day than Halloween. When I was a kid, I remember having to wear winter coats over my costume beacause it was so cold out! Looking back on my records, the last cold Halloween we had, was way back in 2002. It just doesn’t feel right to have balmy warm weather on Halloween! Anyway, I will have my Halloween forecast for you in my next blog…So beware!!

Now for your weekly outdoor acivity forecast. As stated earlier, this is going to be a rather uneventful week of weather. I will rate this week a 7 out of 10. Look for deep blue skies and seasonable temperatures for the rest of your Monday, with highs around 60. A weak system will pass to our south tonight, bringing some high clouds, otherwise, expect cool temperatures with lows in the 30’s in rural areas, and 40’s in the cities. Tuesday will feature some clouds in the morning, but then becoming mostly sunny with temp.’s running around 60 again. Wednesday should be another fine New England fall day, with partly sunny skies, and temperatures around 60 again. Wednesday evening looks dry and cool for any outdoor plans. There may be a few showers on Thursday as a cold front moves through with temp.s close to 60. Expect a little colder weather for Friday, with dry conditions and temperatures in the low 50’s during the day and 30’s at night. Right now, next weekend looks dry and seasonable, with highs in the upper 50’s Saturday, and close to 60 on Sunday, with chilly conditions at night.

Well, that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will update how the colors are doing, since it will be peak week in our area. With all of the sunny days, and clear cool nights coming, I suspect the colors to really brighten up around here next week. I will also have your Halloween forecast for all of your trick or treaters. In the meantime, enjoy the tranquil weather for the next week or two, once November comes, anything can happen! -GO PATRIOTS!!!-

Pete

Storm coming! 10/14/10

Sorry! This was Thursday’s update which never got published!

Just a quick update on the early season nor’easter which will hit us beginning tonight. Right now, the storm is in its development stage on the mid-atlantic coast. As it moves up the coast, it will rapidly intensify with increasing northeast winds and heavy rain overnight. Expect heavy rain and strong winds up until about midday Friday. As the center of the nor’easter passes close to Boston, watch for the winds to diminish somewhat during the afternoon across eastern New England, however the showers will continue into the evening. Winds will begin to increase again toward evening, this time out of the northwest. While all this is happening here, it’s going to be a different story across the state of Vermont. Here, the storm will show a different side. With the storm rapidly intensifying close to Boston, this will cause dynamic cooling of the air to make it just cold enough for a possible heavy wet snowstorm across the state, especially over higher elevations. Even places in New Hampshire may see some accumulating snow! This has happened before, and if history tells us anything, this storm may end up causing quite of bit of damage to trees with foliage on them, as well as downed power lines. By the way, areas of the Berkshires in western Massachusetts may also see some accumulating snow out of this storm. I may post an update on this storm tomorrow if conditions warrant.

Pete

A trail of beauty… 10/11/10

Happy Columbus Day to everyone! When I was a kid, I loved Columbus Day. I still do today, but of course, things are a little different now! Back then, I could always count on three things on Columbus Day. First, we always seemed to get that first real chill in the air about this time. Second, I could always count on my friends from the old neighborhood getting together for a game of football. And third, the trees always seemed to start changing color around Boston this time of year. This year, with the exception of the football game (although I did see my nephew play football), things seemed just like old times. In fact, I can’t remember three more spectacular autumn days in a row, like we had this weekend! In addition, many interior communities experienced their first frost of the season on Saturday night, which is exactly the average date.

I myself had a chance to enjoy the beautiful weather yesterday and was invited to go bike riding on the Minuteman Rail Trail which begins in Arlington, Ma. This trail begins in Arlington and goes straight through a kalaidescope of trees and fields and finishes in Bedford. Although some trees were just beginning to change, I could only imagine what it would look like in a week or two. If you would ever like to take a bike ride, or just a walk, I would highly recommend this trail. I hope everyone had a chance to enjoy this beautiful weather the past few days!

On to a bit of weather history. Back on October 9th, 1979 the weather was alot different around here than this past weekend. In fact, we were dealing with an early season snowstorm! Many inland locations received over six inches of snow, with some elevated areas up to one foot! Even Logan Airport measured snowfall! The ironic twist with that year was that the following winter did not have that much snow at all in New Enland. So snow in October does not always mean a snowy winter!

Thus far, this October has had its own share of surprises. After the summer which we had, there definitely has been a shift in the overall pattern. This is important. Don’t forget, we have a nine month streak of above normal temperatures at stake here! October is the first month I look at in helping me determine what the upcoming winter may be like. Although October offers some clues, November is the month which is heavily weighted to help formulate the winter forecast and patterns. So far, this october has featured close to average temperatures and precipitation. If the current long range forecasts hold true, the rest of October may actually end up much wetter and cooler than normal. Whether this trend continues into November is something which I will be watching closely.

Now onto the forecast. For this week, I’m calling for a 6 out of 10. With the nice weather heavily weighted on the front and middle part of the week. For the rest of your Columbus Day, look for pleasant weather, with lots of increasing high cirrus clouds, with temp.’s in the middle 60’s. There may be some light rain very late tonight for people who live south of the Mass. Pike. Tuesday may start with some light rain south, then become partly sunny during the aftrenoon, with temp.’s only near 60. Watch for areas of frost again over inland areas Tuesday night with temp.’s in the 30’s and 40’s. Wednesday will be the pick of the week, with mostly sunny skies and seasonal temperatures in the low to mid 60’s. Wednesday evening looks clear and not as cool for any outdoor activities which you may have. Thursday will feature increasing clouds once again, with temp.’s around 60. It’s a few days away, but beginning Thursday night and continuing into Friday, we may be looking at a strong nor’easter affecting our area. This storm is looking very impressive on the weather charts this morning, and may deliver heavy rains, srtrong winds, and coastal flooding. If this storm fully develops, it may even bring wet snow to the mountains!
The storm may linger into Saturday, with wind, rain, and cold temperatures. Sunday may dry out and be chilly for the Patriots game. This is too tough to call from now though. Stay tuned, as I may need to update this forecast later this week!

That’s about it for now. As always, thanks for checking in on the blog! I may need to update this forecast later this week if conditions warrant. In the meantime, enjoy the trail we are riding on today, the trail ahead is looking quite different to me!

Pete