Tracking the color wave! 10/4/10

Geographically, New England lies in a very special place on  earth. Situated exactly half way between the Equator and the North Pole. With Canada to our north, the Atlantic Ocean to our east, and the tropics to our south, New England experiences nearly every type of climate found around the world at any given time. This “melting pot” of weather also allows many different species of trees to thrive in our climate. Just take a walk in Boston’s Arnold Arboretum sometime, and you’ll see what I mean. At this time of year, people come from all across the world to experience something that we have right here in our back yards! Starting from now until the end of October, the fall foliage extravoganza is beginning to spread from north to south. Right now, peak fall colors are in northern New England, and spreading south rapidly. Over the next several weeks, the color wave will spread south, not reaching Boston until Halloween time. As always, peak colors arrive sooner over higher elevations and in the interior and usually lasts for about a week. Inside route 128, and along the coast, urban heat island effect and the ocean, prolongs the colors, which many times can extend right into November! A good rule of thumb to follow if you are planning a trip is to go around Columbus Day week end. From the reports I’m receiving so far, is that the colors have come on quickly and are very bright in spots, probabaly due to the dry summer. If you can’t make a trip, no worries, peak fall colors will be visiting your neighborhood soon!

So what causes our trees to turn into those beautiful colors which we love so much? Well, it can be a complicated process, so I’ll give you the short version! Basically, trees are living things, and like many things including some of us, they go into hibernation during the winter. Trees and plants, use a process called photosynthesis to produce its food. Together with sunlight, water and oxygen, trees manufacture their food in the form of glucose (a type of sugar). This produces a chemical called chlorophyll, which gives them their green leaves. As the trees receive less sunlight during the fall, it begins to shut down this food source. As it begins to shut down, it produces less chlorophyll, allowing the beautiful colors to come out! Other facors which come into play are cooler nights, and the amount of precipitation the trees have received. Too much water may cause a fungus to grow on the trees. Too little, and the leaves may just dry up and fall off prematurely. A warm fall may prolong the feeding (sugars) to the trees, delaying the change of colors. Whereas colder nights, may shut down this process sooner, accelerating the colors. As you can see, it’s a fine balance, only one that Mother Nature can handle! Regardless of what happens with the colors, autumn in New England always delivers beauty in one form or another.

Before I get to the forecast, I did want to to quickly talk about this day in weather history. On this date, October 4th, 1987, western New England was hit by an early season snowstorm! Especially hard hit were the Berkshire’s right here in Massachusetts. Up to 20″ of heavy wet snow fell, snapping trees, and downing power lines. I believe the storm caused a death of a college student by electrocution. I had friends going to North Adams State at the time, and they said that they had never seen anything like that. A freak storm like that is Mother Nature’s way of letting us know to be prepared for anything here in New England!

Now for the forecast. It appears that we have an early season nor’easter on our hands for a good part of this week. Not to worry, I see no freak snowstorms coming this week. I’m giving this week a 5 out of 10. Look for windy,chilly, drizzly, foggy, and occasionally rainy weather for the rest of your Monday. In fact, this weather may persist through Thursday! The heaviest rain will come tonight into tomorrow morning, and then again on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures will be very chilly to start, mainly in the 50’s, then warm up a bit into the 60’s as we move through the week. It’s not imposiible that we see some breaks of sun from time to time. To our neighbors to the north, expect less rain, and more sun for today and Tuesday. I think everybody gets wet on Wednesday. Watch for the weather to begin to improve on Thursday, with some sun, but still also a chance of a few showers. Right now, the weather looks to be very nice starting on Friday and continuing into Saturday, with suny skies, and seasonal temp.’s in the mid to upper 60’s. Sunday may turn out nice as well, with possibly some clouds increasing during the afternoon. Temp.’s look milder, with highs near 70.

I think I wrote enough for today. Next week, I will get to my October preview (a little late), and I will also give you an update on where the best colors are. In the meantime, watch for those red maples coming on strong, as New England begins to show us just how special of a place where we live!

Pete

Stormy for a change… 9/27/10

I had a completely different blog prepared for today. It was going to have a fall theme to it, talking about fall foliage, where the best color is, and why the leaves change color. Then I decided to delay that blog for one more week, and talk a little more about summer 2010, before we finally say goodbye for good. I was ready to kick into fall mode last week, then I felt the weather last Wednesday through Saturday. This had to of been one of the longest summers that I can ever remember! In fact, this was the hottest summer on record for many mid-atlantic cities. After coming off of the snowiest winter on record, Philadelphia, PA had its hottest summer, with 55 days of 90+ degree days. New York City, along with many other reporting stations, also recorded their hottest summer on record. The Great Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, Ma. also recorded their hottest summer on record. As far as I know, Boston still stands at #3 for their hottest summer, only because they had some “cooling” seabreezes at times. So, like I said, with the weather being close to 90 for a few days last week, it just didn’t feel right to start talking about cool crisp days, and brilliant fall foliage when half the city was still at the beach! Alot of people asked me if this was Indian summer last week. No, remember, Indian summer is a period of sunny, warm weather after the regions first frost or freeze.

So what does this all mean? Is this global warming? Are we all going to be at the beach for Thanksgiving time? Is the climate changing? The answers to all of these questions is no, no, and maybe. Of course, you can go to the beach on Thanksgiving if that’s what you want to do! It’s a free country. However, you may want to bring your hat, gloves, heavy coat, and possibly your snow shoes! The point I’m trying to make here is that, no, this is not global warming (at least that’s my opinion), but yes, the climate is changing. It’s always changing. The definition of climate is the average of weather conditions over a period of time. It’s the extremes which make up the averages. In the past, we’ve had weather like this. In researching some past climates, we’ve had periods of unusually warm weather, and also periods of unusually cold weather. It all goes in cycles, dependant on ocean temperatures and sun spot cycles. Currently, we are in a warm cycle. There are some reliable climate experts out there who are predicting a major shift is about to happen, and the great balancing act of Mother Nature will soon have people talking about the next ice age that is coming! Something to think about.

Shifting gears a bit, I did want to talk about the tropics. Tropical storm Mathew formed at the end of last week and drenched Hondorus over the weekend. This week, expect Nicole to be named in the caribbean and possibly become a factor in our weather sometime later this week. I’ll talk about that in my forecast. I also wanted to mention a bit of weather history on this date. Back on September 27, 1985, Hurricane Gloria blew through New England. Once a scary category 5 storm down the coast, New Enganders braced for the worst, as she was on course for a direct hit. As it turned out, Gloria weakened to a category 1 as she approached New England. Nonetheless, Gloria did cause hurricane force gusts of wind up to 75 m.ph. and caused some tree damage and power outages. It could of been alot worse , as we were on the dangerous right quadrant of the storm.

Now for the weekly outdoor activity forecast. As the heading of the blog stated, expect some stormy weather on tap for this week. Overall, I will rate this week a 5 out of 10. For the rest of your Monday, expect damp, cool conditions, with northeast winds, and rainy weather developing late this afternoon. Look for showers to continue overnight as a warm front lifts through our area. Expect areas of dense fog tonight as well. In addition, temperatures will begin to rise as the front lifts north of us, along with much more humid conditions. On Tuesday, expect warm, tropical comditions to be the rule, along with areas of tropical downpours at any given time. Temperatures will be very warm and muggy on Tuesday with highs mainly in the upper 70’s. There may be a break on Wednsday with not much rain, but still expect it to be very warm and muggy out. Beginning on Wednesday night, we may begin to feel the effects of tropical storm Niclole’s moisture surging up the coast. If the forecast holds, expect heavy rain and strong southerly winds for Thursday. After that system passes, we may salvage a pretty decent day for Friday, with cooler weather, back to the 60’s. Right now, the weekend could feature our first real taste of fall, with partly sunny skies, and cool temperatures in the 60’s Saturday, and maybe only the 50’s on Sunday. If anyone is planning on going hiking to the White Mountains this weekend, expect some snow showers at the highest peaks, and cold temperatures. For us at lower elevations, look for the first potential widespread frost to occur over interior New England this weekend! Then we may be able to talk Indian summer?

In my next blog, I will not wander off talking about different subjects. Expect a full fall discussion. I will be giving a fall foliage report, and also talking about how our leaves change into the beautiful colors which we love. I will also preview what the month of October may have in store for us weatherwise. In the meantime, I think it’s about time to retire the flip flops for the season. Shame I didn’t get to get to wear the new one’s my sister got for me for my birthday, maybe next year! Anyway, keep those umbrella’s handy, and cover those tomato plants next weekend!

Pete

How could I forget! 9/23/10

This past Tuesday marked the 72 year anniversary of New England’s greatest storm in history! On September 21st, 1938, the Great Hurricane of 1938 struck New England. For those who don’t believe that major hurricanes strike New England, let me fill you in on some facts about the storm. The hurricane, once a cat. 5 off of the Bahamas, moved to a position just off of the Carolinas. At that point, the storm rapidly accelerated at a rate of 60 m.p.h. as it slammed into southern New England, coining this storm as, “The Long Island Express.” More than 600 people died. Most of these people tragically drowned as a 20 ft storm surge flooded downtown Providence. In addition to flooding, eastern New England was on the dangerous right front quadrant of the storm. The great Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, Ma. recorded a record wind gust of 186 m.ph.! Other gusts of wind were up to 120 m.p.h. , resulting in devastating tree damage across the area.

Although being a big fan of winter storms, I have gained new found respect for storms which come from the tropic regions and strike New England. I still have not seen the full fury of a hurricane to strike New Englang in my lifetime. Looking back in history, I know it’s not a matter of if it’s going to hit, but when. In the meantime, enjoy the extended version of summer 2010 for the next couple of days!

Pete

Welcome to fall! 9/20/10

It’s not here just yet, but fall officially arrives on Wednesday, September 22nd at 11:09 P.M. At that point, the sun will be in the same position which it was on the spring equinox, or in this case, the autumnal equinox. On this day, the sun is directly over the equator, resulting in equal time between day and night. From this point forward, the earth will begin tilting away from the sun in the northern hemisphere, and we will begin to rapidly lose solar radiation and sunlight everyday, until we reach the winter solstice. For some people, this can be a difficult time of the year. Dealing with the loss of sunlight can lead to pangs of depression. To others, it can be an exhilerating time of the year. Among some of the activities people, including myself, enjoy this time of the year are: fall foliage trips, apple picking, searching for the perfect pumpkin, fall festivals, watching football games, and of course, let’s not forget our favorite two holidays during the fall, Halloween and Thanksgiving time!

So how is this fall shaping up weatherwise this year? Well after a long hot summer, it seems as though Mother Nature will continue to be kind to us for most of the fall. As stated in earlier posts, I’m still expecting more fine weather for the rest of September, with pleasant temperatures and not too much rainfall. Unlike last year, when October turned cold, even with some snow, this October will be much warmer. Some long range computer models are indicating a continuation of tropical activity, which may have an impact in New England in the form of some heavy rainfall. I’ll keep an eye out for this possibility. Come November, I’m expecting a more typical type November compared to what we had last year. Last year was one of the warmest November’s on record. Expect cooler weather this year, with wetter conditions. I’m even expecting an early season snowfall this year in November.

Now for the tropical update. Over the weekend, hurricane Igor rocked Bermuda, passing just to the west of the island. As Igor approached the island it was downgraded to a cat. 1 hurricane. Yes, there was damage and power outages, but from what I can see, Bermuda dodged a bullet. With the track of Igor, Bermuda was in the dangerous right quardrant eye wall of the storm. Had Igor maintained his category 4 borderline 5 status, it would have been a devastating storm for the island. As it is, taking a direct hit from a cat. 1 hurricane is still bad enough. Igor will continue to move into the north atlantic ocean and turn extratropical (like a nor’easter) and take one final swipe at Newfoundland before finally moving out for good! Watch for high surf and strong rip currents on the coast of New England for the next day or two. In addition to Igor, hurricane Karl redevelpoed in the southern Gulf of Mexico and beacme a major cat.3 strorm as it slammed into Mexico. Next on the list is Lisa. Watch for this storm to be named sometime this week. The tropics have become very active indeed. Interesting to note, however, that all the storms are missing the U.S…For now.

Time for your outdoor activity forecast. I’m expecting an 8 out of 10 this week. Despite fall beginning on Wednesday, wait till you see what kind of weather I’m predicting for that day! For the rest of your Monday, look for spectacular fall like conditions, with mostly sunny skies, and pleasant afternoon temperatures near 70. Watch for a chill in the air tonight, with temp.’s falling into the 40’s most places, even some 30’s in some suburbs and up north! Expect similar weather for your Tuesday, with milder weather during the overnight. Wednesday will feature warm southwest winds with mostly to partly sunny skies and temperatures warming to the mid 80’s! There could be a shower or thunderstorm Wednesday evening as a cool front pushes through. Later Wednesday evening, check out the full Harvest moon shining brightly in the sky. Thursday will be a little cooler, but still very pleasant, with a sun and cloud mix, and temp.’s in the low 70’s. There could be a few showers Thursday night, only to be followed by another warm day Friday, with temp.’s back up into the 80’s! Right now, Saturday may start a bit on the shaky side, but we should have clearing skies during the day, with temp.’s in the low 70’s. Sunday looks like a fine fall day, with sunny skies and temp.’s in the upper 60’s.

In my next post, I will talk about the process which makes our leaves change to the brilliant colors which we love. I will also let you know when you should expect your area to reach peek fall color this year. I’ll also have another update on the tropics and anything else which might be going on. In the meantime, keep both the light jackets and the shorts handy, as you will definitely be needing both this week!

Pete

Winds of change… 9/13/10

I’d like to start off today by stating that there is no one who loves winter more than I do. My favorite seasons go as follows: #1 is winter, #2 fall, #3 summer, and #4 spring. As we move closer to winter, you may notice me blogging more frequently as conditions warrant. With all this being said, for the first time in my life, I feel sad seeing summer come to a close this year. What a beautiful summer! Maybe it’s my age, but the sun just felt so good this summer. So, how did summer 2010 turn out? It turned out very well as far as my forecast went! I hope my winter forecast can turn out as well. Anyway, we know it was hot, but just how hot was it? Statistically, it was Boston’s third hottest summer on record, with 25 days of 90+ degree heat. Along with the hot weather came stretches of torrid humidity. This is nearly double the average of 90 degree days Boston typically gets. That’s only half of the story though. We know that Boston’s data is taken at Logan airport, which is right on the ocean. Many inland communities had 40 or more 90+ degree days! That’s spending nearly half the summer in 90+ degree heat! It was also drier than previous summers, with most of our rain coming in a out of place 4 day nor’easter in August. This along with the heat made this the hottest and driest summer since 2002.

Switching subjects briefly, the tropics have suddenly become very active again. Once tropical storm “Igor” dramatically strengthened into a cat. 4 hurricane within 24 hours over the weekend! This shows us how quickly things can change with these storms. Igor will continue to be a very impressive storm, possibly reaching cat. 5 status, as it continues to move west in the open Atlantic ocean. Right now, Igor is forecasted to recurve out to sea  like its predecessors, but I will keep you posted if things change. Breaking news this morning is that tropical storm julia has been named, and it appears Karl may be forming as well. Right on cue, the tropics are lighting up, and this will go down as a very active season after all.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. After a beautiful Labor Day weekend last week, I was quite surprised to see how quickly the weather changed from summertime to fall like, seemingly overnight! It seemed las if  Mother Nature had enough summer, and switched to fall mode whether we liked it or not! I wouldn’t panic just yet, but I do believe that we have entered a fall regime from this point forward. Yes, we will have more warm days, and there’s always Indian summer to look forward to, but the change of seasons has arrived. I know this week will feature more fall like weather than summer. While last week should of been downgraded to a 6 out of 10, this week looks like a solid 7 out of 10. For the rest of your Monday, look for mostly cloudy skies, with some spashes of sun from time to time. Temp.’s will be mild, around 70. There may be a shower or thunderstorm this evening as cold front pushes through. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature partly sunny skies with a chance of an afternoon shower each day, temperatures will be in the upper 60’s and low 70’s. Thursday will start sunny, but you will notice increasing clouds during the day, with temp.’s again in the low 70’s. Watch for some showers and possibly a thundershower Thursday night into Friday morning, then skies should clear thereafter. At this point, you can expect sunny pleasant weather for next weekend, with temp.’s in the low 70’s.

In my next blog, I will get to my preview of fall 2010, as well as update the tropics, which should be interesting. In the meantime, it’s time to start thinking fall, and all of the beauty that comes along with it.

Pete

A September to remember… 9/6/10

Happy Labor Day to everyone! With Earl out of the way now, we can now start looking forward to what the rest of September may have in store for us. In the world of weather, many use the phrase a September to remember to recall the big hurricanes which strike during this month. So will this September be remembered for a big hurricane hitting New England, or will it be remembered for the fine weather which we have come to love during this month. Later, I will offer my thoughts about that. First, I would like to talk a little about what September means to us in terms of our weather.

With the worst of the summer heat behind us now, it’s time to begin to look forward to the change of the seasons. I’m not declaring summer over just yet, but there are some subtle signals. Up in New Hampshire this weekend, not only was there a little nip in the air on Sunday night, but we also noted fewer Hummingbirds buzzing around the feeders. It’s time for their annual migration south. It’s inevitable, you can’t stop Mother Nature. At this point, the northern hemisphere is beginning to tilt away from the earth on its axis. Come September 22, we will reach equal daylight and nightime, also known as the autumnal equinox. It won’t be long now until the leaves begin to change, and we start talking about frost. Before that happens, I believe we have many fine days of weather still to enjoy. The big question is whether our streak of above normal months will continue into September. With no unseasonably chilly air heading our way anytime soon, I don’t see why it wouldn’t. How about precipitaion? September is usually New England’s driest month of the year, with about three inches on average. I’m looking for this September to be near normal, or a little below average in rainfall.

After the Earl fiasco, the tropics have seemed to have temporarily cooled off. On average, hurricane season peaks around September 10 th. With this season getting off to such a slow start, I believe the tropics will once again become active. Hurricane season does not officially end until November 30th, so we have a ways to go. The big question here is whether another hurricane will threaten New England again, or did the media exhaust all of hurricane coverage into just one storm which never hit? The funny thing about Earl is that it never made landfall anywhere until it reached Nova Scotia, and by then it was only a tropical storm. It really  was just alot of hype about nothing! It makes you wonder just what the medias intentions are in covering these storms. I believe New England may have had it’s best shot at a landfalling hurricane this year with Earl. We may be grazed again, but that’s tough to tell at this point.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. This is another easy forecast this week. I’m calling for another 10 out of 10 on the weather scale. It just doesn’t get much better than this! Look for the rest of your Labor Day to feature mostly sunny skies, and a nice warm breeze. Temperatures will be warm, around 80. Perfect for any outdoor activities you may have planned today. Expect summer heat to build back into New England for Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures warming to the mid to even upper 80’s, with higher humidity to boot. There may be a chance of a brief shower or thunderstorm on Wednesday as a cool front approaches. Thereafter, expect sunny,cooler & drier weather to return for Thursday and Friday. At this point, I am pleased to report that next weekend looks like it will mostly sunny with a warming trend, with temperatures back into the 80’s by Sunday!

In my next blog, I will review summer 2010. I will also take a look at how our fall forecast is shaping up. In the meantime, let’s hope we will remember September for our beautiful weather, and not from any storm with a name attached to it!

Pete

Earl a coastal concern… 9/3/10

As with many cases like this, the once formidable Hurricane Earl has been weakening steadily since my last update yesterday at this time. In addition, Earl has begun to track on a more north, northeast motion. With this track, most of New England will be spared the worst of the storm. I mentioned yesterday that a track further east will spare us the worst of the storm. With this being said, the storm is still progged to pass within 100 miles of Nantucket. If that’s the case, Nantucket may still experience a strong tropical storm, minimal category 1 hurricane conditions. This means winds of possibly up to 75 m.p.h. This will still cause some power outages on the island. As the storm makes its closest pass to us overnight, coastal eastern New England may experience some gusty winds and squally type rains, but with minimal damage.

At one point yesterday, some reliable computer models brought the hurricane very close or even over the Cape as a strong cat 1 or even a weak 2. If this were the case, a much more significant storm would be bearing down on us. Since then, most models have trended further east with the storm, and weakening it. This is good news for many people who didn’t want the storm. For people who did want to see a big storm, maybe next time. Getting a hurricane to hit New England is one of Mother Nature’s secret formula, which only is presented to us rarely. After all, we live in New England, known more for our nor’easters, not hurricanes. I will update this blog if needed, otherwise, have a great Labor Day weekend and we’ll take more weather next week!

Pete

Earl moving dangerously close to us! 9/2/10

Just a quick update on a developing situation. It now appears that Hurricane Earl will track even closer to the New England coast than expected earlier in the week. Earl is now a dangerous category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 145 m.p.h. near the center, and is moving towards the outer banks of North Carolina. It now appears that the cold front which was supposed to push Earl further east, has weakened due to the strength of the hurricane. So what does this mean for us? Well first, this is not going to be a category 4 storm when it reaches us. By the time Earl reaches our latitude, it will lose some of it strength. In addition, the eye appears that it is going to pass to the east of us, which puts us on the western side of the storm. Remember, the worst part of the hurricane is the right quardrent of the eye wall. With that being said, with the eye possibly passing very close to the island of Nantucket, it looks like they could be in store for one heck of a storm beginning on Friday afternoon into the evening. Winds could gust up to 100 m.p.h. on the island with power outages and trees down. On the Cape itself, a period of hurricane conditions with wind gusts of up to 75 m.ph. This is enough to cause some significant damage as the storm passes through. As for the Boston area, we are now under a tropical storm watch. A tropical storm watch means we could see winds of betweeen 40 and 70 m.p.h. and 2 to 3 inches of rain. This is also enough to cause some damage, and power outages. The storm will pass through swiftly, and be over by very early Saturday morning. The holiday weekend still looks sunny, cooler, and much drier, with temp.’s in the 70’s. Please note that the tracks of hurricanes can be very fickle. Even with today’s technology, it can be almost impossible to pinpoint where this is going for sure. The slightest shift in the track towards the west (much worse) or towards the east (much better) can make all the difference in the world. Needless to say, better to be safe than sorry, with a storm this large, I would start preparing for at least some trees down and possibly some power outages from the Boston area up the coast through New Hampshire and Maine. If you live down towards Plymouth and on the Cape, be prepared for a harder hit, with many power outages and trees down. If you live on Nantucket, be prepared for possibly a category 2 hurricane hitting the island, with some significant damage. It’s not like we have never gotten hurricanes, it’s just been nearly 20 years since one has come this close to us. So batten down the hatches for a quick hitting tropical cyclone. We shouldn’t be surprised, it’s not like it wasn’t predicted a few months ago!

Take care out there,

Pete

Lots to talk about! 8/30/10

Does the weather get any better than this? After the out of season 4 day nor’easter which soaked eastern Massachusetts, the weather has once again straightened itself out, setting us up for a spectacular unofficial end to summer. I say “unofficial” because remember, meteorological summer ends, gulp, tomorrow. However, don’t get too disappointed just yet, astronomically, summer does not end until September 22. Looking at the long range outlook for September, I have good news for those who enjoy summer weather. It looks like this September will offer some of the fantastic weather which makes this time of the year famous around here. September looks to feature many sunny warm days, and clear comfortable nights. In fact, as of this writing, we are in the midst of a late season heat wave. The heat wave, which began yesterday, will continue through Thursday of this week with temperatures running in the lower to mid 90’s through the period. With this late season heat wave in progress, some of Boston’s suburbs are closing in on 40 days of 90+ degree heat this summer! So, yes, it has been a hot summer.

After a long hot summer, September can be a welcome change. September can also be cruel month and become a “September to remember.” We are now entering into  peek hurricane season. Just like the experts predicted, the tropics are lighting up like a christmas tree. Hurricanes which have hit New England in the past, usually hit during the month of September. This is when the atmosphere and the oceans are most conducive to produce these storms. With that being said, it takes just the right pattern and conitions for a hurricane to strike New England.

We hear alot about the rating system of hurricanes. Hurricanes intensity are measured using a system called the Saffir Simpson scale. This scale, ranges from 1 to 5, with 5 being the most intense. These storms originate in southern latitudes, off the coast of Africa, the Gulf of Mexico, or the  Caribbean sea. Basically anywhere the ocean temperatures are 80 degrees or higher. Hurricanes begin innocently enough as just a cluster of thunderastorms or disturbed weather. This is called a wave, or depression. If conditions are right, this depression may turn into a tropical storm, which at this point, it gets a name. If the tropical storm continues to strengthen and reaches sustained winds of 74 m.ph. it then turns into a category 1 hurricane. If upper atmosphere conditions are right, and the storm remains over warm ocean temperatures, the storm may strenghten further, sometimes rapidly, into a category 2 storm, with winds of up to 110 m.p.h. At this point, the storm may strengthen further to a category 3 storm, with winds of up to 130 m.p.h. Now we’re talking some damage here. From there, It could turn into a dangerous category 4 storm, with winds of up to 155 m.p.h. causing devastating damage. When hurricanes reach category 5 status, it catches everyones attention. These storms rarely hit mainland, but if they do, they cause catastrphic damage, with sustained winds of 156+ m.p.h. Back in 1992, hurricane Andrew was a category 5 storm as it slammed into southern Florida with catastrophic damage.

As of this writing, we currently have three tropical systems in the Atlantic ocean. As predicted by the experts, the tropics are lighting up like a christmas tree. Hurricane Danielle is passing to the east of New England right now. Hurricane Earl is right behind her and will head north passing between Bermuda and the U.S. by midweeek. This storm will be deflected at the last second by a cool front moving in from the west. These storms won’t have any direct impact on our weather, however, watch for large waves and dangerous rip currents as they pass by New England. There will be more storms in the coming weeks, I will keep you posted as needed.

Your weekly outdoor activity forecast is real easy this week. Look for this week to be a 10 out of 10 on the forecast scale. What a week for vacationers! Temperatures will  be in the lower to mid 90’s from today through Thursday, and night time lows to be in the 60’s and low 70’s. By Wednesday, look for the humidity to increase to uncomfortable levels. Watch for the heat wave to break by Friday, with possibly a shower or a thunderstorm. Temperatures will cool back into the 80’s. Right now, the Labor Day weekend looks to feature cooler and drier weather with temperatures in the 70’s with mainly sunny skies!

In my next blog, I will be taking another look at how September may be shaping up for us weatherwise, as well as another tropical update. I will also be giving my preliminary outlook for fall 2010. In the meantime, watch summer 2010 go out in a blaze of glory, soon it will be just a memory.

Pete

Don’t panic yet! 8/23/10

I know what you’re thinking . You saw that dark cloud yesterday, and you said, uh oh, what is this? This looks like winter! I said the same thing as I was walking off of the beach down the Cape late Saturday afternoon. I hadn’t checked the forecast for a couple of days, but I knew better. I tried to keep an optimistic attitude in trying to salvage my Sunday, but as the hazy sun became blotted out by a dark cloud at sunset, I knew a change was brewing. So this is how it is here in New England. From record floods in March, to record heat and humidity, to nearly a drought, and now a summertime nor’easter! Just what the heck is going on here in this extreme weather patterns of 2010? For one, this summer nor’easter caught me totally by surprise. Then again, it was bound to happen. After all, it has been a good few months since we’ve gotten a widespread soaking rainfall here in southern New England. You could also say if you don’t like winter weather, better to get this type of storm now, than in December. You don’t have to shovel 3 to 5 inches of water. With this being said, I did not not expect a storm of this magnitude at this time of the year. Very unusual.

So what does this all mean? Does the dark cloud and strong northeast winds signal an abrupt end to summer? I don’t believe so. After the storm moves out to sea by midweek, yes, I said midweek, summer 2010 will once again come back with a vengeance. In fact, come this time next week, we will be scrambling to find relief with air conditioners and at the beach!

As for the tropics, we have a brand new tropical storm. Tropical storm Danielle has formed off of the African coast. This storm promises to intensify into a hurricane over the next few days, as upper air winds are favorable for development. There is no threat to any landmass at this time however. On August 19th, 1991 it was a different story for people who live on Cape Cod. It was on this date when hurricane Bob raked over southeastern Mass. Because the Cape was on the right quadrent of the storm, it suffered the most damage. At one point, Bob was a category 3 storm off of the mid-atlantic. By the time it made it up to southeastern Mass. it was still a formidable cat. 2 storm, with winds of up to 110 m.ph. In addition to the winds, Bob brought along a storm surge of up to 15 ft. Although many areas on the Cape were hit hard by this storm, areas such as Buzzards Bay, Falmouth and Wareham were particularly hit hard by Bob. While all this madness was happening on the Cape, areas from Boston north and especially west were bracing for the worst, but only ended up with a rainy, windy type of a day.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. Once again, expect a week of some rapid changes. This week, we will watch the weather improve as we get deeper into the week. Overall, it will start on the low end of the scale, but finish on the high end. So I will average it out to be a 6 out of 10, due to the improving conditions from Thursday onward. Look for periodic windswept rains for the rest of today and Tuesday. Temperatures will be isothermal (pretty much equal in all areas) with highs and lows generally in the 60’s. It will be tough to get the Red Sox game in today, maybe tomorrow? If they do have the game, and you are going, wear a full waterproof rain slicker. Starting on Wednesday, the storm will begin to loosen it’s grip on us, and we may see some slight improvement. Skies may begin to brighten, and temperatures may climb back up into the 70’s. I still can’t rule out some scattered showers though. From Thursday through next weekend, look for drier, warmer weather to be the rule. In fact, by next Sunday, temp.’s may be back up into the 90’s all over again! And that may be the beginning of a late season heat wave. So summer is not over yet, not by a long shot!

In my next blog, I will talk in more detail the catogory system which we use to rank hurricanes. I will also let you know just how hot it may get next week, and also preview what September may be like this year. Until then, keep the summer wardrobe close by, and I’ll let you know when it’s really time to panic!

Pete