Drought watch in effect! 8/16/10

Despite the flooding rains back in March of this year, much of southern New England, including Boston, has recently been classified under a drought watch by NOAA. The government uses a drought severity classification index, also called the Palmer Drought Index, to classify what level drought any particular area may be in. Although New England has been fortunate to receive some rainfall this summer, the overall trend since last April has been for monthly rainfall departures to be running less than normal. This, along with the abnormally hot weather we’ve been experiencing this summer, has entered southern New England on the chart, under the abnormally dry classification. The Palmer Drought Index, developed by Wayne Palmer during the 1960’s, uses temperature and rainfall to determine dryness in the soil for any particular area of the country. The index, which uses a five tier level of dryness, starts with D0, which just means your area is abnormally dry. If the drought persists, you enter into D1 category, or a moderate drought. From there, it turns into D2, which is severe drought conditions. If it turns into D3 level, your now in extreme drought. Parts of southern California is in this classification many times. If the drought persists for multiple seasons, your part of the country may fall under the dreaded D4 category, or exceptional drought. The southeast was under this classification a couple years back. So you can see, we’re not in a state of emergency just yet. However, if this trend were to continue, it doesn’t take long to climb up the ladder to the drier categories. All the more reason to go out and purchase a new front end loader washing machine, which uses up to 60% less water than top loaders do!

The last severe drought to hit southern New England, was back in the summer of 1995. This drought actually began during the dry winter of 1994-95. The dry conditions were exhasberatedby an exceptionally hot and dry summer, much drier than this summer! I distinctly remember all of the reservoirs and Jamaica Pond being excessively low that summer. Mother Nature eventually balanced herself out with the wicked winter of 1995-96. I remember the nor’easters starting in October that year, and not finishing up till April. And alot of them were snow! Hint of things to come? I’ll keep you posted on these prospcts in the upcoming weeks! Right now, the longer range outlook calls for continued dry and very warm conditions well into September.

Not much happening in the tropics right now, so we’ll just move on. Danielle can’t seem to decide whether she wants to become a storm or not. Time will tell.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. This week will once again feature some rapid weather changes. I will classifiy it as a 6 out of 10. You can’t be perfect every time! Even in a summer like this. Look for stubborn low clouds and fog to be persistant for the rest of your Monday. A warm front is tryng to push through the area, but is running into some resistance. There may be some showers around as well into this evening. Tuesday may dawn on the murky side, but skies should become at least partly sunny, and it will be noticebly more humid out. I can’t rule out an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in the muggy airmass. We may dry out on Wednesday with some sun, and temperatures in the low 80’s. As it looks right now, there may be some showers on Thursday, with cooler temperatures. Friday and Saturday may dry out and be on the pleasant side. As for Sunday, I wish I could say that we’ll be in the clear, but right now it looks on the iffy side. It could go either way. After that, the weather may be very nice for the following week, but I’m getting ahead of myself.

That’s about all the time I have for now. In my next blog, I will continue to monitor the Palmer Drought Index, and also talk about the last hurricane which hit New England (mostly Cape Cod) back in the summer of 1991. Until then, hang in there with some of the rapid changes coming this week, after all, we don’t live in southern
California!

Pete

Endless summer… 8/9/10

One of my favorite poetic quotes is by Robert Frost, which states “You can’t get too much winter in the winter.” For some people this same quote holds true with the summer season. So far, summer 2010 has lived up to expectations for hot & humid weather. Boston, for instance, has had 18 days so far with 90 degree plus temperatures. Many inland suburbs away from the ocean have actually had close to 30 days! For some, we’ve had enough summer heat and are looking forward to the cooler autumn temperatures. For others, like the quote says from Robert Frost, they just can’t get enough! So, who’s going to get their wish? Well, of course, the seasons will eventually change, and summer 2010 will be but just a memory. But wait, what is this? Could summer 2010 keep going on? My answer to this is yes! After possibly a brief cooldown in the next week or two, I believe summer will be back, and extend well into September and October this year. In the end, we will remember this summer as “The endless summer.”

As I mentioned in previous blogs, this August will be our 8th straight month of above normal temperatures. So, how long can this go on for? Well, looking back in the record books, we’ve had such streaks before. Back in 1991-92, during another very warm period, we had 13 straight months of above normal temperatures. This begs the question, what is exactly average? My answer to this, is that it’s the extremes which make the averages. I don’t want to be the one who crashes the party, but at some point, the scale will tip the other way. Mother Nature will find a way to balance this unusual warm period, with a streak of cold weather. If I recall, back in 1992 after the warm streak ended, we had 12 months of below normal temperatures with nasty cold weather. This is just the way nature balances things out.

Looking at the tropics briefly, Colin has been an underachiever as far as storms go. Even though his journey has been long, he just hasn’t been able to get his act together to become a formidable storm. I believe at some point, the wind shear which has been wreaking havoc with these tropical storms will relax, resulting in a sudden increase in hurricanes. The disturbances and waves are out there, it’s just certain meteorological factors are inhibiting them top develop right now. The next storm on the list is Dannielle. Watch for her to be named sometime this week in the Gulf of Mexico.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. Overall, I felt as if last week was overated. It was more like a 7 out of 10 rather than the 9 which I forecasted. Too many clouds. This week, look for some rapid changing weather conditions. Overall, I will give this week a 7 out of 10. For the rest of today, look for temperatures to warm up to close to 90 degrees, along with higher humidity. Skies will be be partly sunny, and there may be a scattered thunderstorm later this afternnon. Tonight should be okay, but I can’t rule out a shower here and there. Tuesday will feature similar weather, with warm and humid condtions, with the chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Tuesday evening looks warm, with still a chance of thunder, it does not look like a washout to me. Wednseday and Thursday look to be sunny and a bit dryer as well. Temp.’s should be in the low to mid 80’s. On Friday this wavy weather front may start to foul things up again with clouds and some showers. Saturday may clear out, only to be followed by some more showers on Sunday? That may change from this far out, too tough to call from now.

In my next blog, I will give a more precise forecast at what the rest of August will have in store for us. Is a change actually happening, or is this just a blip in an otherwise stable pattern? It’s been a little tricky thus far! I’ll also check in on how the tropics are doing. In the meantime, let’s hold onto that  warm weather streak as long as we can, because we know that all streaks come to an end! 

Pete

New month, same pattern! 8/2/10

Some years, as we enter the month of August, the weather can change. The sun angle begins to lower, nights start to get cooler, and even some leaves can begin to change color! Not this year. Don’t be fooled by the recent string of cooler weather. Summer 2010 is not over, not by a long shot. In fact, summer will be back with a vengeance this week, and for the rest of the month for that matter. Like its predecessors, August will once again turn out to be another hot and humid month, our 8th straight month with above normal temperatures! In addition to the hot weather, I’m expecting oppresive humidity at times to boot. With that being said, I’m also expecting many fine stretches of summer weather, making this August a great month for vacationers, or summer getaways here in New England. I myself enjoyed a couple of beautiful days up in New Hampshire this past weekend.

With July history now, it’s time to look back to see what was a memorable month weatherwise. July 2010 will go down as the third hottest July on record here in Boston. If not for a couple of cool days at the end of the month, this could have been the hottest July ever recorded!  Along with all of that heat, came our pal, the oppresive  humidity. After all, what would summer be like here in New England without the muggy weather tagging along! With that being said, if it wasn’t for the humidity, it may have been alot drier than what it was. As it turned out, there was just enough instability and lift in the atmosphere at times to drench some communities with some downpours. Not everyone got them however, and widespread rainfall is not in the forecast anytime soon.

Now that we’re into August, it’s time to start keeping an eye out in the tropics. Watch for tropical activity to rapidly increase in the coming weeks. With the ocean being so warm off of New England this year, don’t be surprised if one of these storms pays us a visit in September this year. The next named storm to develop will be named Colin, and is coming off of the African coast right now.

So what’s in store for us this week? Expect yet another 9 out of 10, a fine week for vacationers and outdoor activities alike. Look for very pleasant weather for the rest of your Monday, with sunny skies and low humidity. Temperatures will be in the mid 70’s across the region. No problems Monday evening for any outdoor activities. Watch the weather to turn much warmer to hot starting Tuesday afternoon through Friday, with temperatures either side of 90 with high humidity returning. It’s interesting to note that the Patriots have started training camp, and so far they have gotten off easy in terms of the weather. Expect that to change this week, as the heat will be on!  The only chance of rain this week may come in the form of some thunderstorms on Wednesday night, and maybe again on Thursday. These will be scattered, and not everyone will get these storms. Right now, I’m very confident that next weekend will feature beautiful weather once again, with sunny skies, lower humidity, and temperatures in the 80’s!

Well that’s about it for now. In my next blog, I will discuss just how long this unusual streak of above normal temperatures may last for, as well as some interesting statistics on such streaks. I’ll also be updating the tropics on a weekly basis now until the end of the season. Until then, enjoy the phenominal weather which we’ve been having, it doesn’t get much  better than this!

Pete

Christmas in July? 7/26/10

Recently, some big box stores have been running a sales promotion called Christmas shopping in July. Interesting. Mother Nature has her own promotion going on, but it has nothing to do with shopping or fighting crowds. she is offering us a present which I think many of us will appreciate at this time of the year. After several weeks of stifling humidity, we have a refreshing change to our weather pattern! No, I’m not talking fall temperatures here, not at all. In fact temperatures will continue to be on the warm to hot side, especially for the first few days of this week. The big news here is the significant drop in humidity levels, which I’m sure will feel invigorating to all of us, especially after this July! I will get into the specifics in a bit with your weekly outdoor activity forecast.

With this being the last week in July, I thought it might be a good time to start looking towards the future and seeing what August might have in store for us. I was speaking with a friend of mine yesterday who commented to me how the forecast is always calling for showers and thunderstoms, yet nothing ever happens. This is a very good observation. So, what’s going on here? Yes, some communities have been soaked several times with these storms, however, many others have not. Actually, this is a fairly typical summertime pattern. Unlike last summer when we endured full blown winterlike storm systems delivering widespread precipitation, this summer is more typical with your hit and miss thunderstorms. With all of the heat and humidity which we have had, some of these storms have actually spawned some small tornadoes, causing some significant damage across New England. As we look towards August, expect more of the same, with possibly one change. I am predicting less showers and thunderstorm activity in August this year, with a continuation of warmer than normal temperatures. So expect the lawns, which are pretty dry now, to turn really brown by months end. With less rainfall, and warm temperatures, I’m expecting a fine month of August on the way for us this year!

Now for the weekly outdoor activity forecast. While I feel last week should have been downgraded to a 6 or 7  out of 10, I’m confident that this week will be a strong 9 out of 10. Look for a beautiful summer day today, with very very warm temp.’s and sunny skies. Temperatures will range from 85 to 90 degrees across the area, with very low humidity levels. This evening will be perfect for any outdoor acitivities, with the just passed full “Thunder” moon rising in the east. Tusday will be another very warm to hot day, with temperatures near 90 degress once again, with still low humidity. No problems Tuesday evening under warm pleasant conditions for any outdoor plans. Watch for a spike in humidity and temp.’s on Wednesday as we get back above 90 degrees again. Later Wednesday evening into Thursday morning will be our only chance for rain this week, as we have a cold front come towards us. This front may spark off some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Later Thursday, watch for a gusty north to northeast wind will usher in some even cooler and drier weather once again. At this point, Friday and Saturday look feature fantastic weather, with clear blue skies, warm temperatures during the day and clear and cool nights. Sunday looks a bit iffy right now, it could go either way with some cloudiness, but I’m betting on another fine day on the way to welcome August.

In my next blog, I will review the month of July, and I will update the outlook for August once again. In the mean time, open up those windows and give your a.c.’s a mid summer break, because summer part II is just about to get started!

Pete

Some interesting observations….7/19/10

As we move towards the middle of the summer season, I have some interesting observations which I would like to share with you.
First, this summer, we are about half way through and it has been warm. How warm? Well, if it continues like it has been, we are on path for this turning out to be one of the hottest summers on record! Looking at the latest long range computer models, I see no reason to believe that this won’t happen. I actually believe that the deeper we go into the summer season, it may actually become hotter! August, September, and even into October look very warm indeed. Speaking of heat and heat waves, I was curious to find out what the longest heat wave ever recorded in Boston was. Back in 1911 Boston had a stretch of 9 consecutive day’s in which it reach or exceeded 90 degrees. I think we have a shot at breaking that record too sometime this summer! Why not? Mother nature seems to be wanting to break all kinds of warm weather records this year in New England! I don’t see this streak of warm weather stopping until at least November. We’ll take it one month at a time, however.

On a different subject, I was at Nantasket beach yesterday with a friend of mine, and we noted something that many people have been telling me for a long time. All summer people have been telling me just how warm the ocean has been this summer. I was shocked to step into the water yesterday to find it like bath water. Yes, I have felt water this warm, only at Old Silver beach in Falmouth. Never have I felt water this warm this far north so early in the season. So, what does this mean? Well, for one thing the Atlantic ocean is in a record warm water cycle right now. We may be enjoying the warm ocean waters now, however, this may lead the pathway for a tropical storm or even a hurricane to hit New England later on in the summer. With this being said, I don’t hear too many people complaining about the warm water!

Before I get into the forecast, I did want to mention one more interesting observation. Since about late June, I’ve been hearing the Cicata bug beginning to buzz. This is a warm weather bug which lives in our trees. It’s a gruesome little critter, which looks something like a locust. It’s harmless to humans but may do some damage to our trees. Anyways, the buzzing that you hear up in the trees are Cicatas mating call. Usually, the Cicatas begin to show up around August when our warm weather peaks. This year, along with many other warm weather things, are running ahead of schedule!

Now for your weekly outdoor weather forecast. Overall, I’m expecting another 8 out of 10 this week. Look for it to be not quite as hot as the past two weeks, but still very warm. For the rest of today, look for more humid conditions with some clouds and sunshine, with temp.’s topping out near 90. There may be some scattered thunderstorms this evening, so watch out for them. Tuesday looks o.k. with a sun and cloud mix, and very warm temp.’s once again, in the upper 80’s. Outdoor activities look fine for Tuesday evening, but watch for showers to move into the area later on and continue into Wednesday morning. Thereafter, looks for skies to clear with very warm temperatures to return for Thursday into Friday. Right now, there may be another surge of heat heading our way for Saturday, which looks very hot and humid, with a chance of late afternoon thunderstorms. Sunday may clear out and become less humid and warm temperatures. So the shower threat this week appears to be late today, Wednesday morning, and again on Saturday.

In my next post, I will begin to take a look at what August may have in store for us this year. I’ll give you a hint, it looks warm! Surprised? I’ll also scan the tropics to see if we have anything cooking down there. In the mean time, listen for those Cicata bugs, we may end up having a record mating season with them too!

Pete

Heat to continue… 7/12/10

Talk of cooler weather coming with some relief is just that, talk. As I mentioned before, we are in a hot summer weather pattern, and these patterns are tough to break down once they settle in. Last week was the hottest weather we’ve seen around here in 8 years. This heat wave has been in the works for years. It was a perfect recipe for a.c. madness at the store. The heat was building over the July 4th weekend, then when we opened the store for business on Tuesday, it was like walking into a bears trap. The combination of 100 degree heat and high humidity sent people into a panic looking for a.c.’s. From Tuesday thru Saturday the phones rang continuously with customers looking for a.c.’s. I can’t say I blame them either. Personally, I found the heat unbearable. The only question which I have was, where were all these people back in April?? Back then the weather gave us several warning shots hinting that this may be a hot summer on the way. In this case, the early bird gets the worm! In addition to the heat, the humidity was building to unpresident levels, culminating in a biblical type downpour (at least in Roslindale) on Saturday afternoon.

Last week I mentioned that I would talk about the upcoming hurricane season. Hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. Typically, we don’t get many storms during the first two months, but they do occur. In fact, we’ve already had one category 2 hurricane named Alex form in the Gulf and hit Mexico southern Texas area. this may have been an omen for the upcoming season. Private companies such as Accuweather.com and government sectors such as NOAA are in unusual agreement this summer in predicting an above average number of hurricanes this summer. Possibly as many as 20 named storms, and 12 to 15 hurricanes. With ocean temperatures running above normal and a fading El Nino, I too am in agreement in predicting an above normal hurricane season this year. As the season matures, I will focus more time on hurricane season, which peaks in September.

As for the weather for this upcoming week, expect more of the same. Although not as torrid as last week, it still is going to be a hot week. I am going to give this week another 8 out of 10, for fine summer weather. Look for the rest of today to feature sunny and hot weather, with temp.’s near 90. There may be some towering cumulus clouds for a time which may release a brief summer shower? Tonight will be a warm summers night with pleasant temperatures for outdoor activities. Watch for the humidity to increase on Tuesday along with increasing chances of some showers and thunderstorms. This may blossom into a steady period of heavier rain on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
This will be our most unsettled period this week. Look for the temp.’s to settle back into the 80’s during the rain, but do expect the humidity to be every bit as bad during Tuesday and Wednesday. Thereafter, look for the 90’s to come roaring back from Thursday thru Sunday. There may be some thunderstorms during Friday evening Saturday morning time frame, but this is not going to be a washout, expect a very summery weekend on the way.

In my next blog, I will look and see if there is any genuine relief from the heat and humidity on the way. I will also talk about some interesting summer bugs which have made an unusual early appearance this summer. Until then, expect more bad hair days on the way, and if you find any a.c.’s for sale out there let me know, I may be interested!

Pete

It’s all relative 7/5/10

O.k. we know it’s going to be a hot summer. I’ve been beating that drum since April, so now we look ahead. So just how hot can this July become? Well, climatologically, July is our warmest month of the year. Now, if I predict July to warmer than normal, then chances are we will have a hot month on the way. It’s the same as if I said January is going to be colder than normal. You know then, we would probably be in for a darn cold month of weather. With that being said, heat, and the weather for that matter can be looked at as being all relative. July may end up being warmer than normal everyday, but no single day record being broken. Heat waves and summer weather come in many different ways, however, it’s all how it’s perceived. Sometimes, it’s awfully muggy all summer, but actual temp.’s don’t make it into the 90’s that often. Other times, we reach or eclipse 90 many times, but it didn’t feel as bad because there was no humidity. So I guess the old saying, “It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity” has some merit to it. In winter time it’s the same thing. Overall, it may have been a very mild winter, however, it only takes one blizzard for people to remember it as a severe winter.

For this July, I’m expecting it to be warmer than normal. In the end, we will look back and see that it turned out to be the 7th consecutive month in a row of above normal temperatures here in Boston. Just the fact that it will be above normal in July will make it a very uncomfortable month indeed.

Looking ahead to this week, I’m expecting a very warm to hot week overall. I will rate this week a 8 out of 10. It would be higher if I had more confidence toward the end of the week. I think this past week worked out well with the 9 out of 10. It was a beautiful week weatherwise. For the rest of today, expect sunny and hot weather with temperatures in the 90’s. the only relief may be right at the beaches with a cooling seabreeze. This may keep temperatures 5 to 8 degrees cooler there. That’s one of the reasons we go to the beach, to cool off. This evening will feature fine summer weather. Watch for the heat to continue on Tuesday with temperatures in the 90’s most everywhere, with sizzling sunshine. On Wednesday, we will continue the heat wave, but will introduce the chance of afternoon thundershowers. Not everyone will get these showers, so don’t cancel any outdoor plans. Thereafter, the picture becomes somewhat murky, as temperatures begin to ease back down into the upper 80’s as a stronger sea breeze develops. This sea breeze may be the focus point of converging airmasses. this boundary may be in the vicinity next weekend. Before then look for pleasant weather for Thursday and friday. I’m not expecting an all out wash out at all, but just keep it in mind that showers may be around during the afternoons temperatures should remain on the warm side throughout next weekend.

In my next post, I will focus a little more on our hurricane season which began on june 1st. The deeper we get into the season, more attention will be given, especially if any of these storms threaten New England. Until then, pace yourself, we have a long way to go this summer!

Pete

Rolling into July… 6/28/10

With the last few days of June upon us, we can now look back and see how June turned out, and also begin to look ahead to statistacly the hottest month of the year, July. After a shaky start to the month, June has certainly turned into quite the summery month after all. It now appears that June will turn out to be the sixth consecutive above normal temperature month in a row here in Boston. For the last two weeks, temperatures seem to have been exceeding the forecast nearly every day, with many days in the 80’s and even several 90 degree days. Last Thursday was a big surprise, with temperatures soaring to record tying levels of 94 degrees with oppressive humidity. I believe the picture is becoming clearer as to what kind of summer we are going to have. This is a pattern which has been repeating itself starting way back in the early spring. Now, we are begining to see the summer pattern evolve. This will be a pattern which will feature several long hot spells, puncuated by some cooler breaks. Expect the first of many heat waves (three straight days or more with 90+ degree weather)
to begin around the 4th of July. I expect the trend of above normal weather to continue for July, which basically means that we’re going to be sizzling at times here in New England.

On a side note, I would like to talk a little bit about the fascinating cloud formations in the sky recently. It’s fascinating nearly every day, but more so recently. One of the reasons for some of these incredible cloud formations is possibly due to the clashing of the air masses over our region. There has been alot of cool air to our north, and lots of hot humid air to our south. This battle zone has been running right through New Engalnd as of late,
causing rapid fluctuations in temperatures and difeerent types of clouds. Last Sunday, this clash of air masses resulted in some towering cumulonimbus clouds, which eventually led to some severe weather. I actually was able to take quite a nice picture on my digital camera of these clouds. More recently, I was at Nantasket beach yesterday (my favorite beach) with a couple of my friends, and we noticed an amazing cloud formation rolling towards us. This rolling stratocumulus cloud was the length of the sky and was heading right towards us from north to south. Fortunately, the clouds bark was worse than its bite, as it passed over us without much more than a wind shift. Afterward, the sky cleared for a beautiful late afternoon.

Now for the weekly outdoor activity forecast. Expect some more rapid weather changes this week. With that being said, do expect the weather to get better as the week progresses. In the end, I am going to rate this week a 9 out of 10! This is due to the prospects of a great holiday weekend coming up. Watch for a hot day on tap for Monday, with temperatures soaring into the mid 90’s with oppressive humidity. Be on the gaurd for some severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. A few of these storms may contain some damaging winds, hail, and vivid lightning.
These storms may hinder some early evening plans. Tusday looks to be a transition day. It will still be very warm with temp.’s in the mid 80’s, however humidity levels will be lower. There may be a scattered shower late in the day. Tuesday evening looks more comfortable, with drier conditions and fair skies. Wednesday through Friday will feature even cooler and drier conditions, with daytime temp.’s in the 70’s and night time temp.’s in the 50’s. Thereafter it looks like I have great news heading into the 4th of July weekend. It appears that temperatures will begin warming back up to the 80’s on Saturday, and even the low 90’s by the time the 4th comes, with lot’s of sunshine. So after several of crummy fourth of July’s, it finally looks like it’s going to be dynamite this weekend (sorry, I couldn’t resist!).

In my next post, I will take a look at just how hot July may be for us, and also take a look at any tropical development which may be taking place. Until then, enjoy the fourth of July weekend, it will be summer at it’s best!

Pete

Welcome summer! 6/21/10

Hello everyone! Well, I’ve got some good news, and some bad news. The good news is that the summer solstice arrived at 7:28 this morning. The bad news is that from here out the days will begin to shorten, until we reach the other end of the spectrum, the winter solstice. Alot of people aske me, so Pete, how can that be? How come the summer arrives, and the days begin to shorten? Of course, it all has to do with astronomy, the earth, and the way the four seasons are seperated out equally. On one end of the scale, we have the summer and winter solstice, or the longest and shortest days of the year. On the other, we have the spring and fall equinox, or days which are equal in daylight and night. So why the change of seasons? It all has to do with the earth’s axis, and it’s tilt towards the sun resulting in a higher sun angle, thus allowing for more radiation to warm us up. During winter, we tilt away from the sun, thus a lower sun angle and less radiation, resulting in colder temperatures. In the spring and fall equinoxes, we fall right in the middle of this tilting process, resulting in temperate weather conditions, not too hot, not too cold. Complicating the change of seasons is a term which I have used several times in the past called latent heating and cooling. All’s this means is that the warmest weather of the year still lies ahead of us, despite the days growing shorter. For now, that will be the quick explanation on how the seasons change.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. Well, this past weekend certainly featured very summery weather, with temp.’s near 90 degrees for Friday thru Sunday. We even ended the weekend with a heavy thunderstorm in Boston on late Sunday, which was nice for all the gardens. This week looks fairly similar to last week. However, with the warmer temperatures expected, I’m going to bump it up to a 8 out of 10. Look for very warm weather for the rest of today, with temp.’s in the mid 80’s with dry conditions. Tonight looks fine for any outdoor activities. Tuesday looks to be another fine day, maybe a little cooler than today and a few more clouds around. Tuesday evening looks pleasant. Watch for the humidity to increase again starting on Wednesday. There will be more clouds, with a chance of some showers and thunderstorms especially during the afternoon. It looks like an unsettled day at this point. Some of these showers may continue into early Thursday, then skies may start to clear during the afternoon. Right now, Thursday night thru Saturday look nice, with fair skies and warm temp.’s. Sunday is questionable at this point yet again! There may be another front approaching with some showers at some point, but this could change from this far out.

In my next post, I will begin to start looking at what the weather may have in store for us come the 4th of July weekend. I will also have your outdoor activity forecast. Until then, keep those fans and a.c.’s handy, as summer settles in for the long haul.

Pete

On the bubble…6/14/10

I know what you’re thinking. You’re thinking Pete, this June is just like last june, what’s up with that? Yes, june has gotten off to a very shaky start here. It’s been almost two weeks of cloudy, foggy, drizzly, rainy, thundery, muggy, cool weather. I was talking to a friend of mine at the gym the other night, and he commented to me how nice April and May were, and how crummy June has been so far. Very good observation. In my last blog I was touting about how our first heat wave will be blasting into New England this week. Well, not so fast there Pete, this is New England after all. To my credit, I also said a couple blogs back that June can be a tricky month, and this June is no exception. Now for the good news. I still see that bubble of hot weather building to our southwest, and I do believe it is destined to make it into New England. When it comes to seasonal change here in New England, patience is needed. As I mentioned before, it does seem like many times, New England weather likes to wait for the astronomical date to arrive, for the real show to begin. In this case, it would be the summer solstice, arriving next Monday, June 21 st. I do believe, that when the summer solstice arrives, the true summer pattern will begin to establish itself. Even towards the end of this week, watch for the heat and humidity to start to build into New England. At the end of the month, we will look back and say that it was a much better month than last June. Unlike last year, when it got worse as the month went on, this year, it’s going to get better.

Now for my weekly outdoor activity weather forecast. While last week should be downgraded to a 6 out of 10, this week should end up being a solid 7 out of 10. Look for the rest of today to feature lot’s of clouds, with a chance of some showers towards evening. Some evening outdoor activities may be hampered somewhat in some locations. Tuesday will turn out ot be a nice day, with mostly sunny skies. There may be a bit of a chill in the morning with breezy conditions, but temp.’s should warm up to the mid 70’s during the afternoon.  Tuesday evening looks clear and cool. Much like last week, watch for clouds to increase on Wednesday, with rain showers arriving during the late afternoon. Wednesday night does not look like a nice night for outdoor activities, with damp and cool weather. This should linger into the first part of Thursday. After that, the weather should begin to improve during Thursday afternoon. Thursday evening looks okay at this point for outdoor activities. Friday is looking like a winner of a day. Temperatures will warm nicely into the 80’s with abundant sunshine! Next weekend looks better than this past weekend, with temperatures well into the 80’s on Saturday, and perhaps touching 90 on Sunday. However, I still don’t have 100% confidence to say that we’re in the clear for the whole weekend. There will be an approaching front at some point which will spark off some thunderstorms on Sunday? Too tough to call at this point.

In my next blog, I will continue to monitor the impending heat which I am anticipating. I will also discuss some of the details of what the summer solstice means, and what we can expect in the future. In additon, watch for the outdoor activity forecast for the first week of summer. Let’s see if we can bump that weekly rating up above a 7 out of 10 for once! Until then, get ready for summer, cuz it’s coming!

Pete