Summer attack! 6/7/10

Now that the first week of June is behind us, we start looking to the future, specifically, for summer heat! Remember, the month of June is the first month of summer, the same way December is the first month of winter. In December, we look for the origins of where our bitter cold comes from. Not to state the obvious, but it does come from the north. Cold air originates up in the North Pole region, then begins to migrate down into New England as the seasonal change takes place. Our coldest airmasses are those which pool up over the province of Quebec, then discharge directly into New England with north winds, without any maritime modification. During bitter cold winters, true Bostonians know all to well the term “The Montreal express”!

So where does our hottest weather come from? For this we look to the desert southwest region. More specifically, we look to Arizona, Mexico and Texas. In these areas, blistering heat begins to appear during the spring time, then as the seasonal shift begins to take place, these airmasses begin to shift north. From there, we look to a phenomina called “The “Bermuda high” to start pumping all of that heat and humidity into New England.

Looking at the latest weather charts, I do see building hot weather in the southwest ready to make an attack on New England. It looks like a large trough (cool unsettled weather) is going to dig down in the west later this week. When this happens, a ridge of high pressure (warm dry weather) is going to build in the east. Towards the end of this week and especially next week, look for the first of many heat waves (three straight days of 90 degrees or more) this summer to settle into New England.

So how does the weather look for this week? I would rate this week a 7 out of 10. After a few days of very muggy weather, look for the rest of today and Tuesday to turn out very comfortable for any outdoor activities, with temperatures in the 70’s during the day and 50’s at night. There may be a few more clouds on Tuesday and maybe a sprinkle in the afternoon? Wednesday looks like a transition day, with increasing clouds and cooler temperatures. Watch for a rainy and cooler weather for Wednesday night into Thursday, with gusty northeast winds. Thereafter, watch for nice weather to return for Friday. Next weekend looks a little iffy at this point. I don’t see any washouts, however there may be a front in the area with some showers at some point. It does look like it may be starting to warm up though.

In my next post, I will look into just how long and how hot our first heat wave will be. Until then, enjoy the comfortable weather we have for this week, we may be starting to bake by this time next week!

Pete

Welcome Summer! 5/31/10

Although it has felt like summer for quite some time now, tomorrow marks the beginning of meteoroligical summer, which runs from June 1st to August 31 st. In Boston, spring 2010 looks like it will go down as the warmest spring on record! Looking back now, we can certainly notice the difference all of this warm weather has made. Trees were in full bloom and grass was being mowed by mid April! In my last blog I wrote about how I believe that this trend is going to continue into the summer months. Generally speaking, a season usually does not foretell what the next season’s weather is going to be like. However, this year most signs do show a continuation of this warm weather trend into the coming summer months. For this reason, I believe that we are in for a much hotter summer this year.

So what does this all mean for June? In some years June can be a tricky month weatherwise. Since summer does not officially arrive until June 21 st, some lingering effects of spring sometimes fouls up early summer plans. You can blame a term called latent heating for this. In short, the oceans take longer to warm up than land masses, thus keeping eastern New England cooler than other locations inland sometimes well into June, many times right up until the summer solstice. Then, like magic, the summer heat pours into eastern New England just in time for 4th of July.

This year, expect June to continue the trend of warm weather. Look for the first week to get off to a shaky start with some rainy periods. However, as we look back on the month, we will see that this month will end up to be another warm to possibly even hot month.

Now for your outdoor weekly activity forecast. I would rate this week a 6 out of 10, due to frequent chances of showers. After a nice Memorial Day weekend, watch for a steamy day on Tuesday, with a chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. By the way, the haze we saw in the sky for the better part of the weekend were due to the wildfires they had up in Canada. Wednesday looks like it may be the best day of the week, with sunshine, and temperatures. in the 80’s. Thursday may start off okay but may turn unsettled again during the afternoon. It looks wet Thursday night. We may get another break on Friday, but at this point, the weather looks unsettled next weekend. That could change this far out however. Overall, expect it to be a changeable somewhat unsettled week.

In my next post, I will continue to look at the overall June outlook in more detail. I will also have my weekly outdoor activity forecast. Until then, keep those umbrellas and summer clothing handy this week, you will need them both!

Pete

Hotter summer on the way… 5/24/10

Sometimes, you don’t have to be a meteorologist to figure out the weather. In my last blog I explained how much I like looking at trends and past patterns (analogs) in helping me make a forecast for the future. Some people may say that’s a cop out, you really don’t know the science well enough to be giving a forecast. That may be true, but I’ve been living in New England long enough (my whole life) to understand a thing or two about the weather around here. I compose my forecast from many different sources. Just as the saying goes in life that you shouldn’t put all your eggs in one basket, holds true with my forecast. Keep in mind, that this is a prediction, a forecast, a theory. All those words mean is that this is based on an educated guess if you will. Only time will tell if it turns out right.

Now onto the summer forecast. Like I said last time, the pattern that we have been in so far this spring, seems to be the exact opposite from last year. Not only have we’ve been running warmmer than normal in the temp. department, we’ve also been enjoying much nicer weather overall since April. I believe that this trend is going to continue as we move towards the summer season.
Expect a hotter and drier summer this year in New England. Boston averages roughly thirteen 90 degree days each summer. This summer, look for between 18 and 25 days of 90+ degree heat. In addition to the heat, it’s going to be drier, with less thunderstorm activity than previous years. Watch for the extreme weather to continue, with a tropical storm or hurricane hitting New England this year in September. So in summation, expect a much better season for beachgoers, summer gardening, boating and anyone involved in air conditioning sales.

Now for your weekly outdoor activity forecast. Keep your scorecards handy, as we will undergo some rapid changes this week. Overall I would rate it a 7 out of 10 again. Expect nice weather today, with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temp.’s for this afternoon and evening. Watch for a much warmer day on Tuesday, with temp.’s soaring well up into the 80’s along with higher humidity. A good day for the beach and evening activities. Wednseday will feature a day of rapid changes. Expect temp.’s to quickly rise into the 90’s with uncomfortable conditions. Later on in the day be aware of a significant wind shift into the northeast, plummeting temperatures some 30 degrees along the coastline! This is what they call a back door cold front moving through. These fronts happen here in New England and move in a northeast to southwest fashion, rather than the typical west to east track. As this front moves through, it may generate scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, along with gusty winds. Now this front is going to be in our vicinity for both Thursday and Friday, so there may be additional showers and thunderstorms around. Another front moving from west to east Friday will push this whole mess out with another round of thunderstorms just in time for the weekend. Expect cooler and drier weather coming up for the Memorial day weekend.

In my next post, I will preview what the month of June may bring us, and also the outdoor activity forecast. Until then, enjoy the upcoming changeable New England weather this week, as well as the Memorial day weekend!

Pete

When in doubt, forecast drought! 5/17/10

No, where not in a drought…yet. However, it is fascinating to see how mother nature balances the extremes out. Just take the last five months, including May, for example. Since the beginning of the yeat, precipitation departures have been all over the place. January started out with with a long duration snowfall event, which really didn’t add up to too much. The rest of the month turned out to be on the dry side. In February, the pattern changed, with a series of warm, wind swept soaking nor’easters hitting southern New England. In March, the storms only intensified, culminating into the wettest March on record for Boston, and the second wettest month ever! Starting in April, however, rainfall has been below normal, as the great balancing act has begun. During February and March, every storm which came towards us had a bullseye on Boston. These storms either overachieved, or turned into historic events. Now, storms seem to be avoiding us, even when it looks like a sure bet for rain. So far, the pattern this spring seems to be the exact opposite from last year’s cold wet pattern. I love to follow patterns and trends closely, and will use this theory to help me with my summer forecast.

Since the summer has gotten off to such a fast start this year, I’ve decided to start something new this week. With the suggestion of some good buddies at the gym, I will now provide a forecast for people who enjoy outdoor activities during the summer. These activities could include everything from gardening, going to the beach, sporting events, concerts, hiking, and barbecues.

Your outdoor forecast for this week looks good. I would give it a 7 out of 10. Expect nice weather for the rest of today, with light winds and mild temperatures. Good weather for barbecues and Little League baseball tonight. Tuesday will be cooler, with onshore winds and increasing clouds. There is even a slight chance of some showers arriving during the evening. Wednesday looks like to be wet and cool, not an ideal day for outdoor activities, as a storm passes to our south. On Thursday, expect skies to clear and temperatures to warm up. Friday looks to be the pick of the week to me, with sunshine and temp.’s in the 80’s. By the weekend, things start to become somewhat murky. Saturday looks a little cooler with increasing clouds. Sunday looks cloudy at this point, with possibly some showers. But that can change.

In my next post, I will look at the Memorial day weekend forecast in more detail. I will also give another outdoor forecast for next week. Until then, keep that umbrella handy for Wednesday, and possibly the beach chair for Friday!

Pete

Say it aint snow! 5/10/10

It’s hard to imagine that on May 9th and 10th back in 1977, new England was being battered by a late season nor’easter! Yes, it did happen. Areas right along the immediate coast, such as Logan airport and other shore communities, it wasn’t much more than wet snow which melted as it hit the ground. However, you didn’t have to go too far inland to see the snow start piling up. Officially at Logan airport one half inch of snow fell. Further inland amounts ranged up to 4″ of heavy wet snow in the West Roxbury area, upwards to 6″ to 8″ in the Newton / Waltham areas. Add some elevation to that and accumulations increased dramatically to the tune of 1 to 2 feet! In addition to the heavy wet snow, most of the foliage was in full bloom here in southern New England, resulting in major tree damage and power outages. It was quite a scene!

O.K. fast forward to May 2010. Although the month started out much like March and April running some 15 degrees above normal, yesterday must have been a bit of a thermal shock for some people. After Saturday’s downpours, thunderstorms even with some small hail, powerful winds ushered in the coolest weather we have seen in quite some time. So cool in fact, frost and freeze warnings were posted last night, and will be needed again tonight as well.
So, what does all of this mean? Has the pattern really changed? Is cool weather going to be the rule rather than the exception for the foreseeable future? It’s possible. However, I believe that this is more of a temporary swing to counter balance all of the abnormal warmth we’ve had over the past several months. I believe towards the end of May, things are going to start to heat up again. May is similar to the month of November, being the month preceding the start of meteoroligical winter and May for summer. During these months we can determine what kind of patterns are setting up for the upcoming season. This warm up which I alluded to may signify the beginning of a hot and dry summer this year here in New England.

As for this week, expect cooler weather to be on tap. Look for Wednesday to be the coolest day, with onshore winds and possibly some rain as well. Things may try to dry out on Thursday, only to be followed by more damp weather for Friday. Expect things to dry out and begin to warm up by next weekend, which looks like fantastic weather at this point!

In my next post, I will continue to evaluate the upcoming summer pattern, as well as the outlook for the upcoming Memorial day holiday weekend. Until then, keep those jackets handy, and don’t turn that furnace off just yet!

Pete

Not so fast! 5/3/10

In keeping with the theme of this spring, May has started out feeling much more like June. Temperatures soared well into the 80’s on Sunday, and while NHL playoff hockey is in full swing, many people have thoughts about going to the beach, air conditioning, flip flops, and other summer outfits! So, is this it? Have we really turned the corner? Is summer really here? Well, not so fast! Despite all the excitement for the summer weather, we are bound to have a couple of setbacks. We almost always do. Before the real summer pattern sets in, expect the weather to trend back towards normal. Normal for the beginning of May is temp.’s in the lowere 60’s during the day and lower 40’s at night. As we move towards Memorial day temp.’s warm up to the lower 70’s during the day and lower 50’s at night. Even though winter is my favorite season, I do enjoy nice summer weather, it’s part of the beauty of living in New England.

Expect this week to continue with the feel of summer, with generally warm conditions through Friday. Thereafter, look for an unsettled day on Saturday with some rain. As for Mother’s day, look for chilly conditions in the morning, with temp.’s rebounding to the lower 60’s during the afternoon under partly sunny skies. Look for it to be a bit on the breezy side as well, which may make it feel a bit cooler than it is.

Looking ahead towards the rest of May, expect more typical spring weather with alternating warm and cool periods, puncuated with episodes of rain. It doesn’t look like anything too extreme at this point. As we head towards the first day of meteorologic summer, whih begins on June 1 st, we may start to heat up all over again.

My official summer forecast will not be out until around Memorial day. However, I can tell you that it’s looking hotter and drier than the past several summers (that’s not a bold prediction!). Maybe we will even have a good a.c. season this year. The last good a.c season which we had was back in the summer of 2002.

In my next post I will talk a little bit about an historic storm which happened in May a number of years ago. I will also talk about what the significance the month of May has for the upcoming summer patterns. Until then, don’t stay out in the sun without sunscreen, and don’t drink the tap water whatever you do!

Pete

Still ahead of schedule! 4/26/10

As we head into the final week of April, it still appears to me that we’re running a good two to three weeks ahead of schedule with the seasons. In fact, the National Weather Service down in Taunton is calling this April to possibly be a top 5 warmest ever. The only other spring I remember being this warm was back in 1991. In that year, like this year, the leaves were in full bloom, and people were mowing lawns on a regular basis before April was even finished! What’s also interesting about that year, similar to this year, was that there was also a major volcano eruption. In 1991, it was Mt. Pinatubo in the Philipines, which had several major eruptions during the spring, sending volcanic ash high into the atmosphere. Now, I know what you’re thinking. You’re thinking Pete, didn’t the earth cool after that volcano? Yes, in fact it did. However, before the cooling took place, New England had blistering hot summer that year. I remember it well, as I was a exterior house painter that summer. I believe that summer had 30+ 90 degree days. With so many similarities between the years, it begs the question, will we be in for a hot summer this year? I will look into that possibility as we work into May.

There are many variables which control our climate. Among a few of them is the sun, the oceans, and volcano eruptions. While the sun and the oceans warm up the earth, volcanic eruptions tend to counterbalance this, with a cooling effect. This cooling is caused by the ash from the volcano spreading over the atmosphere, blocking out the solar radiation from the sun hitting the earth. Occasionally, there may be enough ash to dramatically cool the planet for several years. I don’t believe that the Icelandic volcano will have this type of effect on us this time around. For reasons which are quite complicated, it seems like the volcanos which erupt in the tropical latitudes seem to have more of an effect on cooling our climate, so no snow flurries in June for us this year!
Getting back to the weather in the short term, it appears that once we get through a couple of cool damp days, things may really start to warm up. Keeping with the trend of being nearly a month ahead of schedule, it looks like when we welcome May in, it may very well feel like June. In fact by this Sunday, we may have temperatures soar into the 80’s. Before that, expect cloudy weather for today, then some damp cool weather for tomorrow. Expect Wednesday to be a changeable day with sunshine in the morning then clouds and showers during the afternoon. Also expect temperatures to actually be a little below average the next couple days. In addition, be aware on Wednesday night away from the city, there may be some frost. Thereafter, expect the skies to clear and the warm up to commence.

In my next post, I will preview what the month of May will be like, and also begin to give some insight on what kind of summer we may have in store for us. Until then, pray for no more volcano eruptions, and continue to enjoy the unseasonably warm weather we have on the way!

Pete

Winter review 4/19/10

Happy Patriots day! Now with April two thirds of the way over, it’s time to reflect back on the winter of 09/10 and talk about what the rest of April may bring us.
So, did we have a tough winter this year? The short answer to that question is no! Not here in Southern New England anyways. If one adds up the winter severity index of cold, snow, and hardship, it will show that we got off quite easy this year. Yes, there were several strong nor’easters, however, many of these storms brought mainly rain and wind, as temperatures were just too mild to support snow, especially in March.
In general, the snow season runs from December through March here in Boston. In some years it can include November and April. In rare cases even October and May. In northern New England, snow season runs from November through April. If you recall, we had snow this year in October. While the Patriots were playing the Titans in Foxboro on October 18, 2 to 3 inces of wet snow fell, making it look more like Christmas time than the middle of October. Now we can look back at the winter, and truly say that it really doesn’t make a difference whether it snow’s in October and the severity of the following winter. In fact, snow in October usually means less snow than average for the forthcoming winter. Even though we had a cold Ocober, November temperatures proved to be just the opposite with record warmth.
Some did see a tough winter. Oddly enough areas south of us had a winter of a lifetime. The mid atlantic area, who had several snowless winters, were hammered this year with 3 major blizzards,
smashing all time snow records in several major cities. With a winter with so much atmospheric energy, it just never seemed to materialize into the snowstorms which we are used to here in New England. Come next fall, I will talk in more detail in which I believe are some climatic variables which makes us different than other parts of the country. It’s not like we didn’t have a winter, I would classify it as a bit below average from what we’re used to. By the way, it’s not like the winter was not predicted, the people at AccuWeather.com and Joe Bastardi did a tremendous job accurately predicting the winter forecast from last July! Now that’s
knowing your stuff!
Looking ahead to rest of April, expect fairly normal weather to dominate. There will be no more early summertime heat, nor will there be any late season freezes or snow. temp.’s should average in the low 60’s during the day, and low 40’s at night. There may be one or two more days of rain coming, but nothing too heavy. Look for some showers on Thursday, and possibly again on Saturday.
In my next post, I will talk a bit about the Icelandic volcano activity, and how that may, or may not have an effect on our weather patterns. I will also preview what the month of May will bring us. In the meantime, enjoy the comfortable spring weather, as the heat of summer will be here before we know it.

Pete

One for the record books! 4/4/10

With March finally behind us, we can now look back and reflect upon the weather that was. March 2010 will go down in the record books as the wettest March ever in Boston! It was also the second wettest month ever recorded, with nearly 15″ of precipitation. On top of Blue Hill Observatory in Milton, it was the wettest month on record. So if it seemed like something historical happened weatherwise, it did, you were’nt imagining it. Rivers around the area crested at all time record levels, flooding into areas where water never has gone before. Rhode Island was especially hard hit with biblical type floods not seen since The Great Hurricane of 1938. People often ask me, Pete, what constitutes average around here, and I tell them it’s the extremes that makes the averages here in New England.

At this point I’m going to put March in the record books and talk a litttle bit about April. As of this writing, New Englander’s are enjoying an early taste of summer, as the flooding rains have been replaced by warm weather. Is this a trend for the upcoming summer? Possibly. Or it may be just mother nature’s way of balancing things out. I do believe that for people who enjoy summer weather, it’s a good sign that we’ve had so much precipitation early on in the spring. Yes, it will rain again, but I think it’s safe to say that the worst is behind us. After all, we already have half the precip. that we get in a whole year, and we’re only in the begining of April.

Speaking of April, expect the trend of warmer weather to continue. Flowers will bloom, trees will bud, and green up will be in full swing, several weeks ahead of schedule. Expect warmer than normal weather at least through Wednesday, possibly as warm as the 80″s on Wednesday! Thereafter, we may have a period of rainand cooler weather on Thursday and Friday. Expect clearing and more seasonable weather for next weekend.

April usually averages around 1.5″ of snow at Logan Airport. However, this is a little misleading. If you look back in the records, April probably has had more blizzards than small snowfalls. These large storms generally occur every 7 to 10 years along the coast, more frequently over the interior. The last blizzard we had in April was the one on April fool’s day back in 1997. Since then we havn’t had much snow in April. So far, there’s no snow on the horizon for this April either. I’m sure this is good news for many people out there.

In my next post, I will review winter 2009-10 and look ahead at what the rest of  April may bring us, Until then, enjoy the early summerlike weather, and go Red Sox!

Pete

March Madness! 3/26/10

March is known to be a changeable month weatherwise. It seems fitting that the NCAA college basketball tournament coincides well with the wild swings of March weather. This year is no exception to this rule. Yesterday for instance was 65 degrees, then we woke up to a coating of wet snow this morning! In years past March has brought every kind of weather which makes New England famous. If you kept a scorecard it would look very much like a basketball game. From record cold to record warmth, blizzards to floods, March is a transition month from winter to spring. This year, the main event happens to be record rainfall. As of last night, Boston has received a whopping 9.77 inches of rainfall this month. This has brought unprecedented flooding to the area in which we havn’t seen in years. With this amount of precipitation falling during a typically winter month you would think that we would have gotten some appreciable snowfall, at least for the interior, but that has not been the case. This March also happens to be one of the mildest on record, muting any chance for snow. What’s also surprising is the abundance of beautiful days this month. It seemed that when it rained, it poured. On the flip side, when it was sunny, the days were beautiful.

Moving forward, expect a brief step back to winterlike weather for the next day or so. Look at it as cold puddle in a sea of warmth. Temperatures will plummet into the 20’s tonight, teens across New Hampshire, and only rise into the 30’s tomorrow. By Sunday, temp.’s will moderate back into the 50’s, with increasing clouds during the afternoon. Beginning Sunday night, we will begin what will likely be yet another long duration rainstorm, renewing concerns for river & basement flooding, as well as coastal erosion. This storm will not be as bad as the massive nor’easter which soaked us a couple weeks ago, however, it will be enough to turn this March into the wettest on record here in Boston! As we move towards the middle of next week, look for the storm to finally begin to move east, leaving us with sunny, warmer weather as we welcome April.

Next post, I will review the winter of 09-2010, and preview the month of April. Here’s a little hint
for April before I go; can you say early summer? Until then, have a great weekend, and whatever you do, take time to enjoy our weather!

Pete